TRUST RUN CMC ON TNF ‼️
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McCaffrey is obviously one of the best receiving backs in the NFL, and now we get a matchup where San Francisco should lean heavily on him through the air. He cleared this line in 15/19 games last season while averaging 54.2 receiving yards per game.
He’s also consistently produced against the Rams, clearing this line in 5/6 meetings while averaging 65.3 receiving yards. In their two matchups last season, CMC finished with 82 and 66 receiving yards.
Where McCaffrey runs his routes fits this matchup extremely well. Last season, 79% of his routes came out of the backfield and another 15% came from the slot. The Rams struggled defending both areas:
✅ 32nd vs Slot routes
✅ 29th vs Backfield routes
CMC commanded a 22.4% target share last season and averaged 2.18 yards per route against Zone coverage. That’s especially notable against a Rams defense that played Zone on 81% of its snaps and ranked 29th defending it.
The pace should also create additional opportunities. Los Angeles played at the 6th highest Pace in the NFL last season, and against teams in the top half of the league in Pace, McCaffrey cleared this line in 12/13 games while averaging 59.8 receiving yards. The Rams also allowed the 4th most receiving yards to RBs last season.
San Francisco’s personnel makes CMC even more important. Jauan Jennings left for Minnesota this offseason, while Ricky Pearsall has been placed on season-ending IR after undergoing PCL surgery. George Kittle is expected to have a chance to play, but he is returning from the torn Achilles he suffered in January.
The Rams should also be able to create pressure. They generated a 38% pressure rate last season, 5th highest in the NFL, and then added Myles Garrett this offseason. Garrett is expected to debut against San Francisco, giving an already strong pass rush another elite weapon.
That pressure should only increase the value of McCaffrey underneath. He gives Brock Purdy an immediate outlet out of the backfield and finished 2nd among RBs in YAC last season, giving him the ability to turn short completions into chunk gains.
With a matchup that has consistently allowed production to RBs through the air, a fast-paced Rams offense and McCaffrey’s role as one of San Francisco’s most reliable weapons, we like him to clear this line again.
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