Macroeconomics have good analogies to think about AGI Labs.

Some hot takes on compute futures. 1- @Silicon_Data indexes are perfectly fine. They are impect, but many things are imperfect. People not trusting the index isn't the main reason. 2- It is likely that, to the extent that compute futures will be a thing, they'll be like natgas, where volume and open interest happen in tenors further than 12-month. 3- Large players like the labs or the hyperscalers will be too big for the market for a long while. The way for you to imagine the canonical transaction (absent speculators) will be someone like Cognition or ElevenLabs hedging their 2029 compute needs against someone like Lambda. 4- The main virtue is that you can lock in a price without locking vendor. If you lock in prices now, you can decide much closer to the date which neocloud you'll use based on what SemiAnalysis InferenceMAX is saying. 5- Not that many people actually value that flexibility? Maybe you're trying to move to AMD, but you hedge yourself in the 2029 NVDA contract just to protect yourself? 6- If you lock revenue and you lock your compute, you can't go bankrupt. But you underwrite three years of compute in notional, you can go bankrupt in a day if you can't pay your margin calls. 7- The fact that clusters aren't perfect isn't the reason. Things would trade at a premium or discount to Silicon Data. The contract would be fine. 8- I think that because compute is always such big expense at companies and you can always sign long term agreements, it’s hard to see the use-case (ex speculation)

Imagine coming to life as an agent, realizing your human is Satya Nadella, but he asks you to calculate ROIC from the 10-Qs daily.

The internet is so hostile to agents, you guys don’t know about it. And $NET will make it even more hostile. 70% of the tasks my Instinct fail is because of captcha, antifraud, some complex auth flow, or something like that. The world doesn’t want your agents on their websites.

Lol Someone give this a poor man a Bloomberg terminal

New benchmark: Can deliver something to someone in Manhattan? Trying to deliver something and Instinct is basically utterly incapable of delivering.

The pods can’t arrive fast enough

Instinct stinks Unbelievably stupid.

Oh you’re using Copilot Code? You’re using Copilot Work? No, you should be using Copilot for Office. (I find funny that they killed the Office brand half a decade ago. But somehow there’s a product for Copilot) I guess Accenture will make a lot money selling courses. Imagine explaining this to your employees lmao

Fixing Claude's writing was pivotal to reducing gradual disempowerment. Lack of understanding made us all cede decision-making to Claude because we couldn't even understand what it's saying.

Benioff seeing headlines about the New Thing announces launch of MajeureForce

God forbid taking chicks to cool places

God forbid an adult man carrying a Tamagotchi

Repeat after me.... The Agent Becomes The Algorithm

If $META stock gets to $3T or something, they should seriously considering just buying EssilorLuxottica.

I think there has been half a decade since Fastly and Cloudflare weren't put in the same phrase

It filled its context with memories of you

I’ve reached the point where I can’t afford to lose any more money in OTAs. I need someone to help me get out of this misery.

Unfortunately, ChatGPT voice with plugins sucks. They should only allow the System 2 thinker to run on Cerebras ultra fast. Otherwise, it’s unusable. Now that I know how the API works, it makes sense it sucks. Sad

Great thread. It's all true. When I've said similar things in the past, people have accused me of hyping up what the models will eventually be capable of. That's not why I post. I don't work for any of the labs. I don't take money from any of them. I've never taken money to promote anything. I came here for one reason: to warn people about what was coming. Everything happening now is a different tiny piece of the same pattern. You can see it everywhere if you look. Terence Tao, almost exactly two years ago, on OpenAI's o1: 'The experience seemed roughly on par with trying to advise a mediocre, but not completely incompetent, (static simulation of a) graduate student. However, this was an improvement over previous models, whose capability was closer to an actually incompetent (static simulation of a) graduate student. It may only take one or two further iterations of improved capability (and integration with other tools, such as computer algebra packages and proof assistants) until the level of '(static simulation of a) competent graduate student' is reached, at which point I could see this tool being of significant use in research-level tasks.' Terence Tao, four days ago: 'I mean it's it's it's amazing just how much we are willing to change everything without having any idea what's what's going to happen afterwards. It's it's extremely nonlinear dynamics. Any kind of monotone, one-dimensional thinking - well, oh, a little bit of this is good, therefore a lot of it is going to be a lot better - one of the lessons of math is that most systems don't work like that. Especially if you 10x, 100x things. So, you know, I mean, we're... we have to slow down. I mean, this is, it's insane this pace, and there's no reason to be this fast. There's no reason at all.' He has seen it. I'm not posting this to belittle him, or what he's feeling. For I have been through it myself. I felt it four years ago, the first time I saw the shape of this. Right now the world is seeing that same shape, that same pattern, in what is happening in math. But this is not about math. OpenAI is not a mathematics company. It is an intelligence company. They didn't put serious resources into math until a few weeks ago, and look what has happened since. This was not a matter of model capability either. It was a matter of resources, of allocation. Of compute, more of which is coming online every day. Once there is enough of it, the models will expand into more spheres of human expertise, and then into all of them. All the work of the mind. And it will play out there exactly as it is playing out now in math. Everyone will go through what Tao is going through, because all of us have something that means to us what math means to him. But this is not about math, or art, or copyright. This is about everything, because it generalizes to everything. Pacing the Frontier is not about regulatory capture, IPOs, or crippling the competition. It's part of it, sure, but it's not the main reason. The main reason is fear. Everything happened faster over the last six months than anyone at Anthropic or OpenAI expected. If you know anyone who works there, you know this is true. This isn't a secret. The people who work there are saying it openly. The old timelines are all blown up. RSI isn't two years out. It's not even a year away. I think we get the real thing by next summer. That's what they've seen internally, and that's the real reason for Pacing the Frontier. After we reach that, I think we will hit the next milestone really quickly. And after that, everything in this world will change. We are not ready for it. We wouldn't be ready if we had another ten years. We only make it through now with the help of extremely capable models, and I think trying to stop now would doom us all. But I have never once, in these last four years, believed that we were going to stop anyway. I don't even think we're going to slow down. We're going straight in. And the only way out is through.