Great post. This is a remarkably clear and concise phrasing that I will be adopting.
The bad kids who start with low level class disruption will distinguish themselves with escalating enforcement, like all other criminals do
Someone will talk in class, teacher will tell them to stop. Most kids don't like being yelled at and back down.
The defiant kid refuses to obey teacher. Rather than have the teacher go toe-to-toe trying to assert authority against children, which is both demeaning and dangerous in the case of teen boys, the teacher calls in some higher, roaming disciplinary figure who is basically a prison guard, though schools prefer you not say this. The guard can do things like grab a kid by his shoulder and march him to detention, which is basically solitary.
The introduction of some physical authority is where the different types of kids reveal themselves. Your average troublemaker is ashamed and backs down once they're faced with someone other than their teacher who they can't intimidate. Detention is dreadfully boring, especially if children are locked in separate rooms, and they don't want to repeat it. (We shouldn't suspend kids from school as this is more of a reward for the defiant kid than a punishment).
The other kind of person are the ones who fight the cops for no reason other than pride or thrillseeking. So, if you don't go quietly and do time in detention (school jail) the real cops show up and take you to real jail for a longer period of time, which sucks worse. This carries the more serious penalty that the kid can't even go home at the end of the day to play video games or see friends. They're just in jail, and hopefully really want to not be there again.
The nice thing about escalating punishment is it's giving the crappy people who can't obey authority an opportunity to land themselves in jail for no good reason if that's where they truly belong and choose to be.
It's kind of like, maybe if we sent a social worker to a domestic disturbance instead of a cop, a certain number of crazy people would be de-escalated or placated rather than rising to the occasion to fight a cop. But, it's actually good that we give the stupid death wish people a situation in which they can throw their life away quickly, so they're unambiguously on the wrong side of the law and can be morally incarcerated or killed as needed rather than hang around in the grey zone of repeated low-level contacts with government workers who can't control them.
This is where existing schools screw up, because they don't provide the consistent feedback to steer behavior. Many districts have explicit guidance to de-facto quota punishments like detention or suspension because of racial disparities. Or, they do misguided conflict-avoidant stuff like zero-tolerance policies where they put both sides of an incident in detention rather than determine who was the instigator and who was the victim needing protection.
If you give every kid the same punishment, that punishment can't be that harsh, escalate much, or inconvenience parents of normal kids. So the few bad kids learn there are no serious consequences for defiance or fighting.