Smirkley
@Smirkley

Politics + data + charts + randomness

Joined September 2023
4,174 Photos and videos
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Smirkley
@Smirkley
1h
Learn t’ code, they said. Tekkin’ the piss, weren’t they, our kid? UK job ads for software developers are down 75% since 2019. Ads for cleaners are up 57%. Get yer mop and don’t look back in anger.
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Oh hungry? Ozempic!
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teddit.net/r/Biohacking/s/9C…

[Mature Content] From the Biohacking community on Reddit: 130 pound weight loss

Posted by Undeniablereject - 309 votes and 45 comments

reddit.com
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In addition to rents falling in states with more ICE arrests per capita, home values fell too. Zillow typical home value, seasonally adjusted, 50 states: r = −0.41 (p = 0.003), −0.59 population-weighted.
Scatter of state ICE arrests per 100k versus Zillow home value change since January 2025. Source: Deportation Data Project, Zillow, Census. @smirkley

ALT Scatter of state ICE arrests per 100k versus Zillow home value change since January 2025. Source: Deportation Data Project, Zillow, Census. @smirkley

Smirkley
@Smirkley
4h
I checked with publicly available data. States with more ICE arrests per capita have had weaker rent growth since Trump took office: r = −0.53 or −0.69 weighted by pop.
Scatter of state ICE arrests versus rent change since January 2025, adjusted for party control. Source: Deportation Data Project, Apartment List. @smirkley

ALT Scatter of state ICE arrests versus rent change since January 2025, adjusted for party control. Source: Deportation Data Project, Apartment List. @smirkley

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I checked with publicly available data. States with more ICE arrests per capita have had weaker rent growth since Trump took office: r = −0.53 or −0.69 weighted by pop.
Scatter of state ICE arrests versus rent change since January 2025, adjusted for party control. Source: Deportation Data Project, Apartment List. @smirkley

ALT Scatter of state ICE arrests versus rent change since January 2025, adjusted for party control. Source: Deportation Data Project, Apartment List. @smirkley

Homeland Security
@DHSgov
10h
DHS is reducing your rent, especially in states that cooperate with @ICEgov. Texas accounted for about a quarter of ICE arrests in July and posted the country’s sharpest rent drops, with San Antonio down 4.8%, Austin 4.3%, Dallas and Houston about 3%. Miami’s average rent is down 2.6%. Phoenix is down 4.2%. Atlanta is down 3.2%. Nashville is down 5.3%. New Orleans is down 8%.   Research shows that illegal-worker inflows push rents and home prices up. That inflow has been reversed in the states running the hardest interior enforcement.   Want lower cost of living: support mass deportations.
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Here’s a chart using Zillow data:
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Smirkley retweeted
Sawyer Merritt
@SawyerMerritt
3h
Wow! Tesla just registered another 37 Cybercabs for its robtoaxi fleet, bringing the total number of Cybercabs registered today to 56, the biggest day ever. Tesla has now registered 125 Cybercabs, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time, according to the Texas DMV.
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Smirkley retweeted
Smirkley
@Smirkley
4h
Does party control explain the correlation? No. After adjusting for trifecta and split control, link between ICE arrests and lower rents since Trump is unchanged: r = −0.53 (p < 0.001). Weighted by pop, it does go a bit lower from −0.69 to −0.61
State ICE arrests versus rent change, adjusted for party control. Source: Deportation Data Project, Apartment List. @smirkley

ALT State ICE arrests versus rent change, adjusted for party control. Source: Deportation Data Project, Apartment List. @smirkley

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Does party control explain the correlation? No. After adjusting for trifecta and split control, link between ICE arrests and lower rents since Trump is unchanged: r = −0.53 (p < 0.001). Weighted by pop, it does go a bit lower from −0.69 to −0.61
State ICE arrests versus rent change, adjusted for party control. Source: Deportation Data Project, Apartment List. @smirkley

ALT State ICE arrests versus rent change, adjusted for party control. Source: Deportation Data Project, Apartment List. @smirkley

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ICE arrests Jan 20, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026, per 100k state residents. Rent changes from Jan 2025 to Aug 2026, for new-lease rent. VT & DC excluded. Sources: Deportation Data Project, Apartment List, Census Vintage 2025
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Conservatives are more likely than liberals to say they are very happy. If they were lying about it, their happiness answers would line up less well with their other answers than liberals’ do. I checked how closely happiness tracks each other answer within each group, and the correlations are about identical: Happy marriage: 0.44 vs 0.40 Job satisfaction: 0.26 vs 0.29 Fewer bad mental-health days: 0.26 vs 0.28 Never told they have depression: 0.23 vs 0.23 Less trouble sleeping: 0.15 vs 0.18 They would also be less likely to report being happy if the question was asked online instead of in an interview format. But they are not.
chart titled "Does 'very happy' mean the same thing?" It compares how closely happiness tracks other answers among self-identified conservatives and liberals, GSS 2000-2024, measured as a correlation from 0 (no link) to 1 (perfect). Conservatives vs liberals:

ALT chart titled "Does 'very happy' mean the same thing?" It compares how closely happiness tracks other answers among self-identified conservatives and liberals, GSS 2000-2024, measured as a correlation from 0 (no link) to 1 (perfect). Conservatives vs liberals:

𝕻𝖆𝖗𝖆𝖘𝖔𝖈𝖎𝖆𝖑𝖎𝖙𝖞@parasociality
8h
Broke: Being conservative makes you happy Woke: Being happy makes you conservative (resistant to change) Bespoke: Self-reported happiness is bullshit; all this shows is that conservatives *say* they're happy. So do Stepford Wives.
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Smirkley retweeted
Smirkley
@Smirkley
9h
What would it cost to pay construction workers 5% more? 1.2% on the price of a new home, roughly $4,900 on the median. 10%? 2.5%. Etc.
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Homebuilders say they can’t find workers . . . yet the number of jobless construction workers is the highest it's been in the summer in five years. They can't find workers they can underpay and treat poorly.
Smirkley
@Smirkley
Sep 24
Homebuilders say they can't find workers amid the ICE crackdowns? I don't believe you. Construction has 1.4 jobless workers for every job opening, at the summer peak. In 2022 and 2023 it was 0.9.
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What would it cost to pay construction workers 5% more? 1.2% on the price of a new home, roughly $4,900 on the median. 10%? 2.5%. Etc.
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Smirkley retweeted
Smirkley
@Smirkley
10h
31% of self-identified white conservatives are very happy vs 21% of white liberals. A 9.5-point gap, or 44% more likely. What explains the gap? Church: 2.3 pts (24%) Marriage: 2.1 pts (22%) Kids: 0.5 pts (5%) Unexplained: 4.8 pts (51%)
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I took a break from politics on this episode to do a true crime story I’ve always been fascinated by. My buddy @JackPosobiec joined me to discuss how a radical racist offshoot of the Nation of Islam committed serial murders in the early 70s and many were not prosecuted
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By region: the South has the most unemployed construction workers per opening. 50% of housing starts are in the South.
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Conservatives are 8.0-points, or 37%, more likely to be very happy than liberals. What explains the gap? Church 2.0 pts (25%) Marriage 2.0 (25%) Kids 0.4 (5%) Not explained 3.3 (41%)
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31% of self-identified white conservatives are very happy vs 21% of white liberals. A 9.5-point gap, or 44% more likely. What explains the gap? Church: 2.3 pts (24%) Marriage: 2.1 pts (22%) Kids: 0.5 pts (5%) Unexplained: 4.8 pts (51%)
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Guys, although the study was published in 2026, the data used run through 2020, so those blaming COVID vaccines have a timeline problem. The chart shows some of the main risk factors that rose among young stroke patients: substance use, hypertension, diabetes, and AFib.
Stroke rates rose 83% for ages 20-54, fell 27% for 55+; risk factors rose among young patients. Source: Fisher et al., Neurology, Sept 23, 2026. @smirkley

ALT Stroke rates rose 83% for ages 20-54, fell 27% for 55+; risk factors rose among young patients. Source: Fisher et al., Neurology, Sept 23, 2026. @smirkley

Polymarket
@Polymarket
Sep 23
JUST IN: Strokes among younger adults are at unprecedented levels, nearly doubling over the past 3 decades. — CNN
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