I checked with publicly available data. States with more ICE arrests per capita have had weaker rent growth since Trump took office: r = −0.53 or −0.69 weighted by pop.
Scatter of state ICE arrests versus rent change since January 2025, adjusted for party control. Source: Deportation Data Project, Apartment List. @smirkley

ALT Scatter of state ICE arrests versus rent change since January 2025, adjusted for party control. Source: Deportation Data Project, Apartment List. @smirkley

Homeland Security
@DHSgov
Sep 25
DHS is reducing your rent, especially in states that cooperate with @ICEgov. Texas accounted for about a quarter of ICE arrests in July and posted the country’s sharpest rent drops, with San Antonio down 4.8%, Austin 4.3%, Dallas and Houston about 3%. Miami’s average rent is down 2.6%. Phoenix is down 4.2%. Atlanta is down 3.2%. Nashville is down 5.3%. New Orleans is down 8%.   Research shows that illegal-worker inflows push rents and home prices up. That inflow has been reversed in the states running the hardest interior enforcement.   Want lower cost of living: support mass deportations.

Sep 25, 2026 · 7:52 PM UTC

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Here’s a chart using Zillow data:
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Replying to @Smirkley
Maybe, you need to adjust for the fact that the same states also build more housing.
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That’s one sided as the states also get more domestic migration. Anyway:
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Replying to @Smirkley @jonatanpallesen
What’s the adjusted r squared and are you including new home construction?
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The population-weighted R2 is 0.47. Apartment List measures rent on new leases, but it measures change so new build rents aren’t included.
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Replying to @Smirkley
This is a shitty graph and shitty study. If you remove the three bottom-right dots (Florida, Texas, and the bottom purple dot), the correlation disappears and the trend line flattens very heavily. This is just more pseudoscience
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Did the math and of the ~18k ways to drop 3 states, you picked the one that weakens the correlation the most. What are the odds? Dropping the three the then the r = −0.38, p = 0.009. By the logic I can just as easily drop Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina and r jumps to −0.60 (pop-weighted −0.75).
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Replying to @Smirkley
It holds even if you consider red and blue independently
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Yes. This was the second chart in the thread.
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Replying to @Smirkley
What's that small blue dot state that's the furthest right of the blues?
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New Mexico
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Replying to @Smirkley
Housing gets more affordable and you frame it like it's a bad thing?
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Replying to @Smirkley
Supply and demand agrees
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Replying to @Smirkley
Well. Yeah... remove 30 million trespassers, and all forms of housing are going to be more affordable.
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Replying to @Smirkley
Who would’ve known. Removing millions of migrants would reduce housing needs 😱
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Replying to @Smirkley
Leftists be like: I hate landlords more than anything but I support all the policies which are most beneficial to landlords and detrimental to consumers
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Replying to @Smirkley
California needs 40 million more ICE arrests.
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Replying to @Smirkley
Causation is not correlation or vice versa but the GOP and MAGA states are currently less expensive than their Democratic counterparts. This should you tell something about so-called “refugees” who force us to build new houses 🏠 🏡 🏘️ and drive down the value of them all. And really, are more of a burden to already ailing healthcare agencies than a positive for a job market which normally prioritized talent over DEI and ESG.
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Replying to @Smirkley
Can I have the dataset ? I want to try some DiD in it
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Replying to @Smirkley @jonatanpallesen
Curious to see this on a county level
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Replying to @Smirkley
Would be helpful if ICE would do concentrated, high-profile worksite enforcement in a single metro to show the extent of the illegal worker population, generating self-deportations, and showing this rent effect. It's no different than the border. The status quo is a choice.
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Replying to @Smirkley
49 states?
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Replying to @Smirkley
No shit, less people less demand. But also less supply in the longterm as immigrants are overrepresented in the house building industry. So it probably makes the problem worse.
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