I checked with publicly available data.
States with more ICE arrests per capita have had weaker rent growth since Trump took office: r = −0.53 or −0.69 weighted by pop.
ALT Scatter of state ICE arrests versus rent change since January 2025, adjusted for party control. Source: Deportation Data Project, Apartment List. @smirkley
DHS is reducing your rent, especially in states that cooperate with @ICEgov.
Texas accounted for about a quarter of ICE arrests in July and posted the country’s sharpest rent drops, with San Antonio down 4.8%, Austin 4.3%, Dallas and Houston about 3%.
Miami’s average rent is down 2.6%.
Phoenix is down 4.2%.
Atlanta is down 3.2%.
Nashville is down 5.3%.
New Orleans is down 8%.
Research shows that illegal-worker inflows push rents and home prices up. That inflow has been reversed in the states running the hardest interior enforcement.
Want lower cost of living: support mass deportations.
20
181
1,371
107,311
Does party control explain the correlation?
No. After adjusting for trifecta and split control, link between ICE arrests and lower rents since Trump is unchanged: r = −0.53 (p < 0.001).
Weighted by pop, it does go a bit lower from −0.69 to −0.61
ALT State ICE arrests versus rent change, adjusted for party control. Source: Deportation Data Project, Apartment List. @smirkley
2
3
62
2,777
