Currently a Factory/Process Automation Consultant in WNY. Long time ChemE having a career spanning eng/maint and sales roles. Please do your own due diligence.

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Replying to @JCanNuSH
Great question! 🙏(You're reading it right and may be one of the few people to read the entire article😊) On the drug curve alone the model agrees with you- at wk 30 the VANQUISH-1 schedule sits about 1.8pp BEHIND the Maintenance schedule (-21.9% vs -23.7% on my chart's footing), because it reaches 17.5mg 14 weeks later. The two catch up by ~wk 48 and are the same line by wk 72. ➡️ What put the VANQUISH-1 line ahead of the Maintenance Trial's actual at wk 30 in my chart is the placebo term, not the titration. That chart carries SURMOUNT-1's placebo response (2.4pp) because VANQUISH-1, like SURMOUNT-1, counsels every arm on diet and exercise. The Maintenance Trial's placebo arm did nothing (-0.1 at wk 21, +0.3 at wk 33), so the two aren't on the same footing at wk 30. Strip the 2.4 out and VANQUISH-1 reads -19.6% at wk 30, under the Maintenance arm. ➡️ This is really the cross-trial issue from the article showing up inside my own chart- the drug curve is the same, the assumed placebo response of the trial around it is not. I ran both titration schedules at 17.5mg (Maintenance and VANQUISH-1) through my model to illustrate the impact of the titration scheme on WL vs time- chart below, on the same footing as the article's projection.
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Replying to @Dreesenkl
Yes. Working on that now.
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Replying to @ChillBanking
Thanks for posting this chart @ChillBanking!
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$VKTX - I agree that vomit rate is a key indicator and I also watch that very closely. ➡I also care about when it happens. If it happens early and goes away I care a lot less about it (within reason). ➡This trial had an aggressive escalation and the PR said - "the incidence of GI-related adverse events was low and declined over time" hmmm... Bodes very well for ph3 VANQUISH and lines up well with what you have been saying.
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$VKTX - There was only 1 (as in ONE) discontinuation due to an AE in the induction phase of the Maintenance trial per the PR*. ONE, in an accelerated 2-week induction titration scheme‼ (I'm not talking about total DCs in induction, only the ones due to AEs.) For those of you good at math one out of ~161 treated in induction is less than 1%. Discontinuations for other reasons (e.g., withdrew consent, lost to follow-up, protocol deviation) aren't reported, but the n's suggest they happened. There were 161 VK2735 subjects in the induction efficacy population and only 143 appear in the maintenance arms, so roughly 18 appear to have left during induction (I did the math). ➡I will repeat for clarity that only 1 (one) discontinued due to an adverse event out of 161 treated in induction. That is less than 1%. (@ChillBanking please feel free to comment😉) ➡This was in what many thought was a really aggressive titration scheme that would be problematic (not me, and certainly not Viking). ➡On GI AEs during induction, the PR says they were "characterized as mild" and that the incidence "was low and declined over time." Despite "the accelerated 2-week titration schedule," rates were "similar to those reported in the prior Phase 2 study" (VENTURE), "which utilized 3-week titration steps." *Note: Here is the direct quote from the press release I refer to: "One subject (1%) in the induction period discontinued VK2735 treatment due to an adverse event."
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RT @ACInvestorBlog: $VKTX I don’t get the pile-on over this offering. The deal launched at $400M and came out upsized to $500M, with Morga…
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Mufaso retweeted
$VKTX My July thread aged well — VK2735’s maintenance data reinforces how much cleaner its safety profile is versus retatrutide.
$VKTX Full thread on upcoming Maintenance Study results Maintenance study is due this quarter, possibly in September. The significance of these results is substantial, and I will explain why in this thread. Why this is an important readout: First, this trial will give us our first look at 31‑week weight‑loss data; until now, we’ve only seen results through 13 weeks. Second, the subcutaneous dose is titrated up to 22.5 mg, offering insight into the impact of higher dosing. We’ll also get new information on switching from subcutaneous to oral, along with early signals on weekly oral dosing. There’s a lot of data here, including the first look at monthly subcutaneous dosing. In total, we’ll be evaluating four distinct dosing regimens: weekly subcutaneous, monthly subcutaneous, daily oral, and weekly oral. In summary, maintenance study results will also be important for topline data from the oral maintenance study, which will have read-throughs to the Ph3 program. Opportunity for VK2735 may be greater given it's a more potent dual GLP/GIP agonist and will also couple well with SQ VK2735 for seamless transition between SQ and oral formulations. Advantage $VKTX as SQ VK2735 To Oral VK2735 offers a more seamless transition between Formulations. The fact that both the SQ and oral drugs are identical molecules formulated as oral and SQ. This should help mitigate some of the AEs associated with switching patients between different molecules. Take a look at when patients were switched from SQ Wegovy or SQ tirzepatide to orforglipron, discontinuation rates went up. In the ATTAIN-MAINTAIN study by $LLY showed that when patients were switched from SQ semaglutide or SQ tirzepatide to orforglipron, D/C rates due to AEs were 4.8% and 7.2%, respectively. Also, patients who switched from Zepbound to orforglipron gained 11 lbs after 52 weeks on orforglipron. Just a recap on $LLY Obesity portfolio 1) Retatrutide- Triple agonist, weekly subq injection. Efficacy- Weight at 80 weeks from avg. baseline: Retatrutide 4 mg -19.0%, 9mg -25.9%, 12mg -28.3%, Placebo 2.2%. Safety- The most common adverse events among participants treated with retatrutide (4 mg, 9 mg, 12 mg, vs. placebo, respectively) were nausea (28.6%, 38.4% and 42.4% vs. 14.8%), diarrhea (25.2%, 34.1% and 32.0% vs. 13.5%), constipation (23.8%, 25.9% and 26.1% vs. 10.9%), vomiting (10.6%, 22.8% and 25.3% vs. 4.8%), and upper respiratory tract infection (14.2%, 12.2% and 13.1% vs. 11.6%). Incidences of dysesthesia occurred in 5.1%, 12.3%, and 12.5% of patients treated with retatrutide 4 mg, 9 mg, and 12 mg, respectively, compared with 0.9% with placebo. 2) Tirzepatide (Zepbound)- LLY's blockbuster drug is a dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist like $VKTX 2735 which is currently in PH3 and reports data in 2027. Efficacy- Average weight loss with tirzepatide of 26.6% from study entry over 84 weeks, 20.2% compared at 72 weeks Safety- See the Chart below. 3) $LLY oral drug orforglipron, a small non-peptide for obesity Efficacy- orforglipron showed placebo adjusted weight loss at 72 weeks of: • -5.4% for 6 mg dosing • -6.3% for 12 mg dosing • -9.1% for 36 mg dosing- this is nothing earth shattering weight loss as it had been touted as the next blockbuster drug. In comparison, $VKTX VK2735 oral drug showed loss of 8.7% at 60mg dose in just 13 weeks. Weight loss of 12.2% at 120mg dose though higher D/C rates and side effects and not likely a viable dose from manufacturing standpoint. Safety- Higher treatment D/C due to adverse events (10.3% at highest dose vs 2.6% placebo) Significant gastrointestinal side effects reported (33.7% nausea, 25.4% constipation at highest dose) Overall discontinuation rate of 24.4% at highest dose indicates tolerability challenges. The most common adverse events for participants treated with orforglipron (6 mg, 12 mg and 36 mg, respectively) were nausea (28.9%, 35.9% and 33.7%) vs. 10.4% with placebo, constipation (21.7%, 29.8% and 25.4%) vs. 9.3% with placebo, diarrhea (21.0%, 22.8% and 23.1%) vs. 9.6% with placebo, vomiting (13.0%, 21.4% and 24.0%) vs. 3.5% with placebo, and dyspepsia (13.0%, 16.2% and 14.1%) vs. 5.0% with placebo. Treatment discontinuation rates due to adverse events were 5.1% (6 mg), 7.7% (12 mg) and 10.3% (36 mg) for orforglipron vs. 2.6% with placebo. The overall treatment discontinuation rates were 21.9% (6 mg), 22.5% (12 mg) and 24.4% (36 mg) for orforglipron vs. 29.9% with placebo.
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Replying to @bavariaron
Thanks Ronald- Really appreciate your posts as well! Very thoughtful. Thank you for your insights!
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Replying to @bioinvestor24
The market still isn't pricing $VKTX correctly, but that's fine. This trial was a major de-risking event
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Replying to @semodough
$VKTX This is spot on. Viking has a platform. (I think it's the side chain🤔) ➡️VK3019 - Viking's Amylin DACRA is the biggest yet unturned card. It's in ph1 now as a SC and BL teased that they have reason to believe VK3019 will work as an oral.
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Mufaso retweeted
$VKTX reminder $VKTX & it’s obesity platform - most likely the reason it’s still independent as it’s so hard to value it 🤷‍♂️
$VKTX - longs may want to read comments from WB - &digest what $VKTX has in its Obesity platform & whats going on behind the scenes & potentially to come
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$VKTX Upcoming major catalysts in next 9 months : ➡️Phase 3 Oral VK2735 start ➡️"Obesity Week"-> Detailed data on Maintenance Study ➡️VK3019 Viking's Amylin compound reporting on ph1 (SAD data could come before EOY) ➡️ Oral Maintenance study. Should include a QW dosing option and this remains the first ever dual agonist Oral in development. ➡️VANQUISH-1 ph3 Top line data (study should complete May 2027) Don't sleep on the Oral. The Amylin has great potential. VANQUISH-1 Phase 3 reporting is not that far away and the most important data set for Viking.
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Replying to @GilaMonstrum
Awesome work!!! 💯Great call!! 🥇Thanks for sharing!!!🙏🙏🙏
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$VKTX Maintenance results out today were exceptional and a real best case IMO. I will have a lot more to say later but here are a few choice comments: ➡️WL is BIC. VK2735 is better than RETA at same point in time. It's just better with far fewer side effects. ➡️Monthly (QM) dosing works in maintenance ➡️Every other Week (QOW) dosing works in maintenance. ➡️No evidence of Plateau out to 33 weeks. ➡️Tolerability is great even at accelerated dosing and we have some YADOs (Yet Another Dose Option). ➡️We now have data beyond 13 weeks,. We have data to 21 weeks in a very high powered pool arm that should remove a lot of risk for Big Pharma to make a move before EOY 😊😊😊This was simply a home run IMO. 😊😊😊
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$NVO Very interesting. FYI - it seems Orbis is also partly funded by Lilly Ventures which is $LLY 's VC arm.
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@MeadowCapital - My reply was to @ResearchPulse1 who asked about the "first deal". I answered that question and also noted that "Now Viking has 3 more CDMOs willing to supply VK2735 at scale as a second source." which went to your original point. Your original post which was a good one noted that there were 3 new suppliers based upon the MS call on Monday and wanted to know why they didn't issue a PR. Great question. The answer is hard to say because in typical BL fashion, he left out a lot of detail. He said Viking has "added three additional API manufacturers." He didn't call them deals, agreements, or contracts. IMO, whatever is happening either isn't binding or didn't involve any financial commits that are material. That is the reason they didn't PR it or file an 8-K current report. (Note they already have a "concrete deal" in place with Corden that did merit a PR as well as an 8-K SEC filing) These new "arrangements" are important though and likely cover contingency plans for second sources. No doubt, many want Viking business. (There may be some MOUs that exist which are meaningful) We should get more detail on what is going here as time goes on. All of this is opinion of course...
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This mfg. deal was covered in a $VKTX PR from Mar 2025. I quote from the PR (bold is my emphasis): "In exchange for dedicated API and fill/finish capacity, Viking will make prepayments totaling $150 million, to be paid over the period from 2025 to 2028. Prepayments will be credited against future orders. Viking retains ownership of all global rights to VK2735 under the agreement and expects to maintain standard pharmaceutical product margins." BTW- CordenPharma agreeing to these terms says a lot about their confidence in #VK2735. They did not make this capacity commitment lightly and they need to put their own capital behind it IMO. Says a lot about VK2735 considering they know a thing or two about peptides. ir.vikingtherapeutics.com/20…
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$VKTX committed $150 million in prepayments to CordenPharma through 2028, credited against future orders of API and finished product. In return CordenPharma agreed to supply on a per year basis: ➡multiple metric tons of VK2735 API ➡100 million autoinjectors ➡100 million vial and syringe products ➡1+ billion oral tablet capacity This is an incredibly good deal for Viking IMO when you consider the capital investment they did not have to make. Lilly has committed $9B at Lebanon, IN for API, $2B at Concord and $1.7B at RTP for injectables/devices- and is still adding capacity. Now Viking has 3 more CDMOs willing to supply VK2735 at scale as a second source. Mfg. capacity will not be an issue for Viking IMO‼
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