Charting the rise of a multipolar world order. Podcast. Hosted by @philippilk and @admcollingwood. Produced by @gavhaynes patreon.com/user?u=867379
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Lately, European leaders seem panicked.
It’s call time at the casino. The cards are being turned over. How will they ride this one out?
It's New Multipolarity Day and @philippilk & @admcollingwood are here with the good (bleak) stuff...
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Donald Trump’s year of smashing things continues apace.
Iran, Greenland, Canada… And now... Britain?
A United Ireland? @admcollingwood & @philippilk ask how this one's going to play out in all new Multipolarity.
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The Burgerpocalypse is Now!
Malcom Kyeyune (@JucheRespecter) is back on the show joining @philippilk & @admcollingwood revisiting The Burger Theory of History.
Brand new Multipolarity is here, do you want fries with that?
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September is here. As the calendar page tugs away, the madness of the dog days of summer blows away.
The madness of the autumn is upon us. @admcollingwood & @philippilk are here with new Multipolarity, going through what's to come in late 2026.
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Can America beat China in the AI race?
What are the differences in the approaches beyond the well-known cost differential?
And what does it all mean for humanity?
Delve in to all this and more as @hsu_steve joins @admcollingwood on new Multipolarity.
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15/ To find out why an uncontrolled unravelling of the yen could have disastrous consequences for living standards in America itself, read @philippilk full essay here.
multipolaritypod.substack.co…
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14/ The US government is visibly terrified of these outcomes, because they would have real and dramatic consequences for US living standards and the entire US dollar system. This fear is behind the desperate attempts to prop up the yen.
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14/ The US government is visibly terrified of these outcomes, because they would have real and dramatic consequences for US living standards and the entire US dollar system. This fear is behind the desperate attempts to prop up the yen.
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13/ Such a scenario would destroy what remains of Japanese manufacturing competitiveness -- already under pressure from China -- and force capital controls and other emergency measures as the economy structurally decays.
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11/ Second, Japan is one of the most energy-insecure countries on earth. It imports nearly 100% of its oil, coal and natural gas. A weaker yen means much higher prices for energy imports. Indeed, the Strait of Hormuz blockage is helping trigger this exact issue.
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8/ Around 15% of Japanese firms are “zombie companies.” They earn less in profit than they pay in interest. They survive only through what Hyman Minsky called Ponzi borrowing -- taking on new debt simply to service old interest.
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6/ One measure of that profit: since 2022 the yen-peso carry trade has generated roughly twice the returns of the S&P 500. No wonder official interventions keep failing to break the trade when selling yen makes is such a moneymaker!
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5/ Traders borrow yen at the low interest rates, and use this cash to buy dollars, euros or other currencies so they can lend at higher rates and pocket the difference. Every trade involves selling yen, putting downward pressure on Japan's currency. The incentive is pure profit.
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4/ For years Japan has maintained far lower interest rates than other Western economies. Even after recent rises, the Japanese 10-year yield sits at 2.85% while the US 10-year is at 4.68% -- a gap of nearly two percentage points.
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2/ The yen jumped after the latest move -- from around ¥0.0061 per dollar to ¥0.0064. The effect lasted less than two weeks. It has already given back a third of those gains. The previous intervention also proved short-lived.
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Japan has lost control of the yen. Why?🧵
1/ On 31 July, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a $53bln bailout for Tokyo. It followed an even larger $73.5bln intervention in April-May. A photo of Bessent’s to-do list, complete with “buy yen,” conveniently leaked.
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The strategic logic, the winners and losers, and the longer-term implications are set out in the latest Multipolarity Brief.
multipolaritypod.substack.co…
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7/ Meanwhile, India’s heavy bet on Israel has, in the present configuration, proved poorly timed. Given the often zero-sum nature of Islamabad's relationship with New Delhi, this is a win. Further, it opens the prospect of an energy threat against India in the effect of war.
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6/ Pakistan is emerging as one of the clearest winners of the Iran War. It has become indispensable to Washington's negotiation efforts while maintaining workable relations with Tehran, the major Sunni powers, as well as China.
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4/ Turkey’s position has also shifted. The reduction of Iranian influence on Israel’s borders created a vacuum. Ankara was the principal beneficiary, expanding its reach deep into the Levant. Israeli attention has also begun to pivot toward Turkey.
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2/ For Saudi Arabia, the central lesson of the Iran War is clear. Hosting US bases does not guarantee protection against regional rivals. In fact, those bases become liabilities that draw the Kingdom into the crosshairs of the US's or Israel's enemies.
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1/ The post war strategic topography of the Middle East is starting to take shape. On 7 August,🇵🇰, 🇸🇦 and 🇹🇷 signed a treaty that said an armed attack against any one of them would be viewed as an attack against all three. Why? And who are the big winners from this 'Sunni NATO'?
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7/ Why is it unstable, and what is likely to come next? To answer this, and read understand in more detail how the Islamabad MOU unravelled so quickly, follow the link to the latest Multipolarity Brief.
Read it here:
multipolaritypod.substack.co…
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6/ But control of the Strait ultimately proved to be the decisive breaking point. Iranian attacks on shipping resumed. By early July Trump declared the MOU “dead.” Intense exchanges followed. The war re-erupted.
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5/ Worse, Article 1 called for an immediate and permanent end to military ops, including in Lebanon. Almost immediately Israel extended its campaign and bombed Beirut. Then, Israel, the US and the Lebanese government signed an agreement that contravened the MOU.
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4/ But it began unravelling almost immediately. Within days Trump declared on Truth Social that there would be “NO TOLLS” in the Strait of Hormuz unless imposed by the US. In this and other statements he directly contradicted key articles of the agreement he had just signed.
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3/ Trump admitted at Versailles that he had signed it under pressure from the oil market. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, he said, had only weeks left before the risk that rocketing energy prices would cause economic catastrophe. So, as humiliating as it was, he signed.
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2/ On 17 June, the US signed the Islamabad MOU -- an interim step toward a permanent peace deal. But it read like an Iranian wish list. The ceasefire included Lebanon. A $300bln reconstruction fund. Sanctions relief. The release of frozen assets. Iranian administration of Hormuz.
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How did the Islamabad MOU collapse? 🧵
1/ The holding pattern is back. Precision-guided, high-explosive cat-and-mouse has returned as the main contest in across Persian Gulf. Iran says it will never negotiate with Trump. But wasn't there a peace deal? Where did that go?
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Well @philippilk & @admcollingwood have thrown the ring into the fire, @JucheRespecter has returned to Gondor and @ripplebrain has been crowned King.
You asked for it. It's the Pod To End All Pods: Part 3.
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Like a dying star going supernova, the Hormuz Crisis threatens to consume everything around it. Where does it end?
@ripplebrain @JucheRespecter @philippilk & @admcollingwood grapple with The Systemic-War Thesis.
Have you watched it yet?
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It's the big one. You asked, we delivered.
@JucheAffirmer, @ripplebrain, @philippilk & @admcollingwood sit down to discuss... well everything.
What the hell is really going on?
Find out in Part 1 of The Pod To End All Pods.
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You’ve heard of de-Ba'athification? Now what about de-baseification?
The US was unlikely to win this war - but now it seems it could actually lose it.
All this and more in new Multipolarity with @philippilk & @admcollingwood.
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This week: two audio essays, on one big Iran cluster-frig.
@philippilk & @admcollingwood are back with a brand new episode of Multipolarity.
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It’s an oil rush.
Fill your boots, fellers, America is releasing its strategic petroleum reserves, ostensibly to see down Iranian pressure.
@admcollingwood & @philippilk aren't so sure that's really what's going on.
New Multipolarity out now.
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We opened up the inbox. You answered the call.
Want to hear how this particular Geopolitical sausage got made?
@philippilk, @admcollingwood & @gavhaynes answer your burning questions in the new Multipolarity.
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Euroslopulist. Noun.
Fake populist kept on a long-short leash by Brussels and the European Central Bank.
@philippilk & @admcollingwood are here with another scorcher from the heat dome.
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Has Anthropic invented an AI so powerful it's basically the death star? The US Government reckons so.
The biggest innovation of the 21st century is at the heart of a new age of mercantilism.
This week tech specialist @tphuang joins @admcollingwood.
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This week... get in loser, we're going to Pyongyang.
Smartphones, electric cars, a new skyline? North Korea is this year’s big economic success story.
Plus @admcollingwood & @philippilk discuss the latest from Iran, and the Armenian Elections.
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This week, two audio essays.
@philippilk brings you The Escalation Ladder. Reflecting on the 50% chance of strikes into Europe sooner than you think.
@admcollingwood's Weaponised Interdependence examines the new structural shift in global power.
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What do we want?
@philippilk & @admcollingwood discussing Oreshnik missiles, US-Iran peace talks, and silicon chips!
When do we want it?
Now!
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Fantastically erudite comments section on our new Warwick Powell (@baoshaoshan ) article on the Subst@ck.
Powell proposes a mathematical tipping point beyond which one side of the Ukraine conflict will become exhausted.
He has also run the numbers.
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During the Second World War, the US fielded the M3 Grease Gun, while Britain had the STEN. Both were ugly, cheap, and highly functional.
Then peacetime came, and Western militaries decided their weapons should look as good as they perform. The rest of the world never got that memo. And they've been winning ever since.
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Let’s compare to the AK of the skies…
The Iranian Emad missile: around $ 250k. No pilot. Minimal maintenance. Fewer moving parts than a lawnmower.
Same job as the Strike Eagle... But it does it at roughly 1/400th of the cost.
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Today, the US F-15E Strike Eagle costs $60–100m per unit. It takes $19k per flight hour to run, and 10–20 hours of maintenance for every hour in the air.
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The AK is less accurate than the M16 past 300 metres.
But American infantrymen in Vietnam found out the hard way that a rifle that jams is less accurate than a rifle that shoots skew.
But on and on, the US military-industrial complex wanted a technologically impressive weapon.
The Russians just wanted a cheap, reliable one. Both sides got what they wanted.
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