LATE MORNING UPDATE
*Isaias now has winds of 45 mph, and is about 540 miles south/southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It is moving to the east/northeast at 8 mph. It should become a hurricane within the next 24 hours.
*A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi to Indian Pass, Florida. This includes all of the Alabama Gulf Coast.
*On the new forecast package, NHC has nudged the track a little to the east, showing landfall near Perdido Key Friday night around midnight. Winds at the time of landfall are still expected to be in the 90-95 mph range.
*A five to seven foot storm surge is forecast for the Alabama coast and Mobile Bay.
*Rain amounts could exceed 6 inches along the coast Friday through Saturday morning.
*Saturday will be a windy, very wet day for inland Alabama. Rain amounts of 2-4 inches are possible over the western half of the state, with 1-2 inches over North and East Alabama. Winds could gust to 45 mph over West Alabama as Isaias moves northward.
*A few tornadoes are possible Saturday morning, mainly over the southern half of Alabama.
*Models continue to trend faster. A good chance much of the rain will be over in time for the Alabama/Georgia game in Tuscaloosa, and the Zach Bryan concert in Auburn. Still some risk of showers at both venues, but not the widespread rain we will experience Saturday morning.
*The weather improves on the coast by late Saturday morning with a clearing sky and diminishing wind. The rest of the weekend will be dry.
*Rain will move out of North Alabama Saturday night, and Sunday will be warm and dry statewide.
As you look at the maps, remember a hurricane is not just a dot or a skinny black line. Wind and rain impacts will extend far from the center, mainly on the eastern side of the system.
And, remember, with any tropical system forecast changes are likely, so keep up with the latest updates. I will have the next video briefing here by 3:00 this afternoon. I will be live on the Finebaum show at 2:00 to discuss the football situation.