MHS and the probability of a settlement during Sunday's negotiation
As much as there have been years of inconclusive and extremely costly war between Russia and Ukraine, and as much as the Trump administration will again be leaning very heavily on Ukraine to agree to a settlement, the technical read of the probability of that happening tomorrow is low.
Complex, destructive conflicts that cannot be resolved by the one party knocking out the other, are best resolved when a technical condition known as conflict ripeness (see William Zartman) is reached.
This condition can be manufactured by skilful guidance. One of the crucial components of this unstable condition is the so-called MHS position, or a mutually hurting stalemate, where the parties are forced to work at alternatives to their original goals. The more profoundly both parties experience that MHS, the harder they work at creative solutions.
And here we see a remarkable situation where neither party is at the point of MHS - Ukraine because of the help of other allies, Russia because of the role that the US has been playing.
This means that the harder the US is trying to settle this, in this particular manner, the more difficult they make it for both parties to reach that MHS, which in turn prolongs the war.
This does not seem to be by design, given the sense of urgency and pressure the US is bringing to bear on Ukraine.
Technical errors and/or lack of experience in the US negotiation team, capitalised on by Russia seems to be the most probable reason.
In Sunday's public negotiations, keep an eye on efforts to create that MHS