PhD, Iranian Studies | Assoc. Fellow, @MiddleEastInst | @ColumbiaSIPA alum | Commentary on Iranian FP, regional dynamics, & civil society | Farsi/English/French
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On the 46th anniversary of the revolution that unleashed political Islam, ousted a strong American ally, and changed the ME and the national security imperatives of western countries and Israel a simple thread as to what happened and why:
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This duality by @POTUS, survive and become great or deal with hell, is more readily understood by a rational actor.
Tehran is not. It considers a defeat in fiery hell more noble than compromise at a negotiating table.
.@POTUS: I have a big decision to make. Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before — maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East or even the world? Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic, and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy again? Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness?
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Very likely. But since the Woman Life Freedom movement in 2022, the 12 day War in June 2025, and the January massacres of 2026, not to mention the string of executions, the regime has exposed its true hardline self.
Washington will not fall for this.
Masoud Pezeshkian will try to revive the “reformist-hardliner” narrative behind closed doors at UNGA. Pezeshkian will likely push the idea that alleviating pressure on the regime is necessary to prevent the IRGC’s total takeover of the civilian state apparatus. Same old playbook.
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خبری که ایرانیان خارج از کشور را متحیر و خشمگین کرده:
وزارت خارجه آمریکا موافقت کرده است که برای عباس عراقچی، وزیر امور خارجه رژیم، در جریان نشست مجمع عمومی سازمان ملل (UNGA) تیم حفاظتی تأمین کند؛ تا او بتواند با خیال راحت به ایران برگردد، در پشت درهای بسته با فرماندهان سپاه پاسداران بنشیند و برای حمله بعدی به پایگاههای آمریکایی نقشه بکشد؟!
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The news that’s baffling Iranians in the diaspora:
The State Dept has agreed to provide security detail for regime’s FM Abbas Araghchi during UNGA so that he can fly home, huddle with IRGC leaders, and start plotting the next hit on American bases?!
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جدا از موهایی که بیرونه، یه نکته جالب دیگه اینه که تابلوها و نوشتهها به انگلیسی هستن.
پیشگامان این تغییر و تحول بنیادین، زنان جوان و تحصیلکردهای هستند که پس از انقلاب به دنیا آمدهاند، اما در عصر فناوری رشد کردهاند.
نمیتوان این موج را متوقف کرد و همهچیز را به گذشته بازگرداند.
Videos from a women’s road race in Tehran on Friday showed several participants running without headscarves, openly defying Iran’s compulsory hijab rules.
At the Tehran 10K, women competed with their hair uncovered in their latest public display of resistance to rules that continue to require women to wear the hijab in public.
The women’s race began Friday morning at Velayat Park in Tehran, with organizers holding separate competitions for women and men. The course covered 10 kilometers over two laps.
Iranian women have increasingly appeared without hijab in public in recent years despite the continuing legal requirement, particularly since the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom protests sparked by the death of Mahsa “Jina” Amini in morality police custody.
Iranian distance runner Parisa Arab, who holds the national women’s records in the 5,000 meters, 10,000 meters and half marathon, finished first in Friday’s race.
Arab later posted a video showing moments from the competition and her crossing the finish line, saying spectators’ encouragement had given her energy during the most difficult stretches of the race.
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Aside from exposed hair, it is noteworthy how the signs are in English.
Leading the way for transformational change are the highly educated young women who are born after the revolution but into the age of technology.
It will be hard to put this genie back into the bottle.
Videos from a women’s road race in Tehran on Friday showed several participants running without headscarves, openly defying Iran’s compulsory hijab rules.
At the Tehran 10K, women competed with their hair uncovered in their latest public display of resistance to rules that continue to require women to wear the hijab in public.
The women’s race began Friday morning at Velayat Park in Tehran, with organizers holding separate competitions for women and men. The course covered 10 kilometers over two laps.
Iranian women have increasingly appeared without hijab in public in recent years despite the continuing legal requirement, particularly since the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom protests sparked by the death of Mahsa “Jina” Amini in morality police custody.
Iranian distance runner Parisa Arab, who holds the national women’s records in the 5,000 meters, 10,000 meters and half marathon, finished first in Friday’s race.
Arab later posted a video showing moments from the competition and her crossing the finish line, saying spectators’ encouragement had given her energy during the most difficult stretches of the race.
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🧵WATCH THIS FIRST
@NazeeMoinian on @marthamaccallum / The Story. Iranian-born. Fled Tehran at the start of the 1979 revolution. She is not guessing.
piped.video/watch?v=fmBuaH0C…
Nazee Moinian told Martha MacCallum the truth most of Washington still will not say out loud.
She was born and raised in Tehran. She left when the Islamic regime seized power in 1979. She watched the videos of the regime opening fire on its own people — women, men, children — and said she was not surprised. Then she asked the only question that matters:
If they slaughter their own citizens for demanding freedom, imagine what they will do to everyone else.
She called it an international threat. Not a “regional issue.” Not a gas-price story. A defining moment.
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سالهاست ناظران امور ایران میکوشند با بالاترین درجه هشدار، درباره جمهوری اسلامی و تهدیدی که برای نظم بینالمللی ایجاد میکند، اطلاعرسانی کنند.
از همین رو، اینکه جهان تهدید حوثیها را جدی گرفته است، هم مایه خرسندی است و هم تأسف؛ خرسندی از اینکه سرانجام این خطر مورد توجه قرار گرفته و تأسف از اینکه این اتفاق پس از یک دهه طفرهرفتن و تعلل رخ داده است.
For years Iran watchers were trying to sound the five-star alarm on the Islamic regime and the threat it poses to the international order.
It’s both refreshing and sad that the world is taking the Houthi threat seriously albeit after a decade of prevarication.
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خبر بد این است که جنگ خلیج فارس هزینه سنگینی روی دست آمریکا گذاشته است.
اما خبر خوب این است که حتی پس از پایان جنگ، این جمهوری اسلامی است که باید هزینههای آن را برای سالها و حتی دههها بپردازد.
The bad news is that the Gulf war is costing US so much money.
The good news is that once the war stops, it is the Islamic regime that will continue to bear costs for years/decades to come.
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تا الان دیگر باید روشن شده باشد که چینیها ترجیح میدهند امور خود را بیسروصدا و دور از هیاهو پیش ببرند.
این رویکرد با ضربالمثل معروف چینی که مکررا از آن استفاده میکنند همخوانی دارد: «گلوله به پرندهای اصابت میکند که سرش را بیرون آورده باشد.»
آمریکا باید با در نظر گرفتن این موضوع به چینی ها اجازه دهد تا رژیم را بیسروصدا و با سیاست کنار بگذارند.
It should by now be clear that the Chinese prefer to conduct their affairs on the quiet side.
It’s in line with their often repeated proverb, “the gun shoots the bird that sticks its head out.”
US should take note and let the Chinese drop the regime quietly and diplomatically.
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It should by now be clear that the Chinese prefer to conduct their affairs on the quiet side.
It’s in line with their often repeated proverb, “the gun shoots the bird that sticks its head out.”
US should take note and let the Chinese drop the regime quietly and diplomatically.
🚨🇮🇷🇨🇳🇸🇦🇾🇪 BREAKING:
China has reportedly asked Iran, privately, to help rein in Yemen's Houthis, after Riyadh appealed to Beijing.
Saudi sought out China's help after the Houthis made rapid advances along the Red Sea coast this past week.
China has publicly called for restraint, as well as the resumption of safe navigation, but apparently went a bit further in private.
Iran has claimed plausible deniability with regard to the Houthis, although their connection has been obvious...
Iranian FM Araghchi was in Beijing yesterday. Sources in Tehran claim no explicit threats were made.
Just a "friendly request" from the country they depend on to purchase 80+% of their oil...
Source: Reuters / Writer: Michael
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The bad news is that the Gulf war is costing US so much money.
The good news is that once the war stops, it is the Islamic regime that will continue to bear costs for years/decades to come.
More than 30% of the entire US Navy is enforcing the #Iran blockade today -- costing ~$1bn a month.
The elite 82nd Airborne Division... is on track for a 12-month deployment in the #MiddleEast without seeing any action.
@becca_wasser for @business: bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-…
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For years Iran watchers were trying to sound the five-star alarm on the Islamic regime and the threat it poses to the international order.
It’s both refreshing and sad that the world is taking the Houthi threat seriously albeit after a decade of prevarication.
A lightning advance by Yemen's Houthi group has brought the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait under its control, making the once ragged highland militia a regional player with global clout. Angus McDowell explains reut.rs/4gYQR8O
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خیلیها میپرسند چطور ممکن است عربستان سعودی ۸۳ میلیارد دلار برای تسلیحات هزینه کند—دو برابر اسرائیل و ده برابر ایران—اما همچنان در برابر حوثیها شکست بخورد؟
چرا عربها بهطور کلی در جنگها عملکرد ضعیفتری دارند؟
این موضوع کتاب اعراب در جنگ نوشته Kenneth Pollack در MEI@ بود. تز او به شرح زیر است:
۱. رهبری تاکتیکی ضعیف: افسرانی که در نظامهای سلسلهمراتبی و مبتنی بر روابط و حمایتپروری رشد کردهاند، اغلب از ناراضی کردن مافوق خود بیش از باختن در یک نبرد هراس دارند. آنها عادتِ قضاوت مستقل را که برای تصمیمگیری سریع در میدان نبرد لازم است، پرورش ندادهاند و بهجای اقدام، بهطور غریزی منتظر تصمیم از بالا میمانند.
۲. مدیریت ضعیف اطلاعات: در ادامه مورد بالا، تأکید فرهنگی بر حفظ آبرو باعث میشود افسران بهجای بهاشتراک گذاشتن اطلاعات برای پیشبرد مأموریت جمعی، اطلاعات را بهعنوان منبع قدرت شخصی پنهان یا دستکاری کنند.
۳. بهکارگیری ضعیف تسلیحات و نگهداری ضعیف تجهیزات.
(در چند دهه گذشته، بخش مربوط به نگهداری تجهیزات بهبود یافته و ممکن است دیگر عامل مؤثری نباشد.)
ه Pollack مشخصاً در سطح تاکتیکی به ناتوانی یگانهای کوچک در اجرای حتی طرحهای راهبردیِ خوب طراحیشده اشاره میکند. ارتشها زمانی که از یک سناریوی از پیش تمرینشده پیروی میکردند، عملکرد قابلقبولی داشتند؛ اما وقتی دشمن از آن سناریو منحرف میشد یا شرایط به ابتکار عمل نیاز داشت، دچار فروپاشی میشدند.
یک گروه نامنظم از حوثیها درگیر این تشریفات و تعارفات نیستند. وفاداری آنها به شعارشان است: «خدا بزرگ است، مرگ بر آمریکا، مرگ بر اسرائیل، لعنت بر یهود، پیروزی اسلام.»
@Parpanchi @SGhasseminejad @NegarMojtahedi
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Why do Arabs in general underperform at wars?
This was the subject of Arabs at War by Kenneth Pallack @MEI. His thesis is as follows:
1. Poor tactical leadership: officers raised in patronage-based, hierarchical systems often have more to lose by displeasing superiors than by losing a battle, and haven't developed habits of independent judgment needed for rapid battlefield decisions, reflexively deferring upward instead of acting.
2. Poor information management: Compounding the above, a cultural emphasis on saving face leads officers to hoard or manipulate information as a source of personal power rather than share it for the collective mission.
3. Poor employment of weapons and poor maintenance. (In the past few decades the maintenance part has improved and may no longer be a contributing factor.)
On the tactical level specifically, Pollack points to the failure of small units to execute even well-designed strategic plans. Armies performed fine when following a rehearsed script, but broke down when the enemy deviated from it or the situation demanded initiative.
A rag tag group of Houthis are not saddled with niceties and deference. Their allegiance is to their motto "God is Great, Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse on the Jews, Victory to Islam.”
@VerminusM @NiohBerg
I'm honestly baffled by how much Saudi Arabia sucks at war. Their military expenses are $83.2 billion. Twice as much as Israel's. Ten times as much as Iran's. They actually have allies on the ground. And yet they're able to do nothing at all against a bunch of bedouins. How?
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Today marks 4 years since Mahsa Amini’s murder sparked the Women Life Freedom movement.
A🧵on the regime’s ongoing bloody repression, women’s tireless fight, mullahs’ new draconian measures and the plight of millions of women caught between lashes and liberal values.
How are they coping?
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6. To this day, a woman’s legal personhood is still valued at roughly half a man’s running thru marriage, divorce, custody and inheritance.
Articles 4/10/12 of the Constitution require all civil codes to comply with Sharia. Article 21 discusses women’s rights but is vague.
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7. The Islamic Republic fears the Iranian woman. How else explain the severe degradation of their legal status after the revolution and the continuous harassment of their lives?
Ironically Iran holds the highest share of STEM women graduates anywhere in the world. At 70% it stands unmatched. Compare that with Turkey at 36% and Israel at 62%.
Here’s a VERY shortened list of Iranian women at the top of their fields:
Maryam Mirzakhani – first woman and first Iranian to win the Fields Medal (Stanford, d. 2017)
Anousheh Ansari – engineer and entrepreneur, first female private space explorer, current CEO of the XPRIZE Foundation
Parisa Tabriz – Google's head of Chrome security, one of the most visible women in cybersecurity globally.
Yasmin Green- born in Iran and raised in London, is CEO of Jigsaw, Google's unit fighting censorship, extremism, and online harassment.
Maryam Azimi- a former prisoner in Iran, she is the image-quality engineer at Apple. She presented Apple's new "Reference Image" camera feature during the iPhone 18 Pro launch this month (September 2026).
Niloufar Bayani – wildlife conservation biologist, imprisoned in Evin for years on espionage charges tied to her environmental research.
Maryam Shanechi – USC neuroengineer, MacArthur "genius grant" recipient for brain-machine interface research
Reihaneh Safavi-Naini – cryptographer, University of Calgary, major contributor to information-theoretic security
Pardis Sabeti- computational geneticist at Harvard and the Broad Institute, whose algorithms for real-time sequencing of the Ebola virus during the 2014 outbreak made her one of TIME's Persons of the Year.
Mitra Hejazipour – earned her Woman Chess Grandmaster title at just 13.
Rayka Zehtabchi- first Iranian American woman to win an Oscar for Best Documentary Short in 2019.
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