I’ll believe it when Tehran is a Groupon mystery vacation destination

Two short reports yesterday, and both did more than repeat the bear case. Iceberg Research (@IcebergResear) did its own maths on Deep Fission ($FISN). It puts the cost of power from the company's reactor at $289/MWh for the first unit and $148/MWh at scale. Gas costs $103 to $110. It also alleges about $350M of unfunded capital needs, which it says could mean roughly 43% dilution. FISN fell 10.9% and hit a low of $6.84. 71% of Iceberg's targets have been lower a week after the report. On EquipmentShare ($EQPT), Blue Orca (@blueorcainvest) is the second short seller to go after the OWN program, which funds more than half the rental fleet. Umibozu Research (@umibozuresearch) did it first in June. The two reports come at it from opposite directions. Umibozu followed the money out. It alleges founder-linked parties collected at least $77M in fees and property flips around OWN. Blue Orca followed the risk back in. It alleges those entities offered OWN investors a first-loss guarantee and an implied buyback, which it says adds up to billions in liabilities that are not on the balance sheet. EQPT fell 9.7% and hit a low of $16.28. It is down 31.7% from the close before Umibozu published. 78% of Blue Orca's targets have been lower a week after the report.

Me and Mark Rowan when he starts ripping the Caymans, Guggenheim and Commissioner Navarro:

HAHAHA

This is a great report but my cover photo was better!

We are short Deep Fission ($FISN), a Nasdaq-listed small modular reactor (SMR) startup planning to bury a 5–15 MWe reactor one mile deep in a 40–60-inch borehole. Its SMR is not cost-competitive, already facing delays, and will likely never be commercialized. (1/10) iceberg-research.com/2026/09…

Nasdaq looks awful

I would’ve never expected $META have the past week it’s had. Congrats Meta bulls! You’re still midwits, but you’re lucky midwits bc the core biz is threatened + off-balance hyperscaler strategy had no chance… And all that matters is $$ and right now u got it. I believed Mark could do no right on innovation, and I could flail skepticism and try to win intellectual points, but I’m man enough to admit that I was wrong. @finkd @alexandr_wang

Me too! I’ll tell you, these Apollo guys (as evil as they are) are really good at PR. Sometime, soon, I will be talking about what Rowan is not pointing at because it would be with his thumb…

Mispriced Assets vs the consensus

Crazy to think about how Trump could’ve had one of the most successful and popular presidential terms in modern American history… and they completely punted it. He was elected by a historic coalition and was the first Republican to win the popular vote in decades because of two issues: inflation and illegal immigration. Inflation was already falling after the Covid and Biden era spending. All he had to do was close the border, conduct mass deportations, and let the economy/AI cook while pushing through deregulation. Instead, after explicitly running on ending foreign wars, he immediately started a war with Iran which has taken over the entire term. Inflation, energy prices and mortgage rates have all climbed and are heading in the wrong direction. His approval is at an all-time low. He sacrificed his own domestic agenda for a war in the Middle East alongside Israel. Republicans are now going to lose the House, possibly the Senate, and the next 2 years will be nothing but DC gridlock and investigations. The odds of handing America to the far-left in 2028 have also dramatically increased.

Yes. Except boomers are unlikely to use muse. Unless muse is on Facebook…

I wish this was me…. ($5m total) $GRPN

I think the vast amount of economic consensus is fughazi. What we need: 1. a sustained dollar short squeeze. 2. To give zero fucks who’s doing what with their currency and our treasuries. The US needs to beat the ROW on currency and credit. The global system is overlevered. Who cares about exports or Japan. A sustainably strengthening currency against the FX competition will drive down relative rates too. A start? Stable coins + deficit reduction + capping M2 growth.

On the agentic trade, $GRPN is by far the least threatened of being disintermediated. It’s the most disaggregated market where websites are least likely to advertise their specific deal. Their announcement that they plug-in to any model is not like Expedia and Muse. Most business don’t even want their cheapest deals on their websites to be scraped by LLMs much unlike tickets. All of these companies benefit from future cost cuts and all could be bending spoons at their valuations (ex-BKNG). Then you have to handicap managements on execution.

Introducing the Qualitate AI Disruption Report. Across 4,800+ discussions, enterprise software buyers linked AI to lower/flat vendor spend or planned churn in 9% of conversations. Up from 3% six months earlier. Here's where the pressure is building:

Also. Considering price action today on $EXPE $BKNG etc $BSP should be down WAY more. The thesis is built on stickiness of revenue even on melting ice cubes. Muse can cancel.