Deputy Director & Fellow at @CSISponi. Posts about nukes - deterrence, nonproliferation, & disarmament
Washington, DC
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Joseph Rodgers retweeted
New satellite imagery reveals the most construction activity at Iran's Pickaxe Mountain in the nuclear site's six-year history. CSIS experts Joseph Rodgers and Doug Comstock explain what the images show and why even the U.S.'s largest bunker-buster may not be enough to destroy it.
Watch the video here: piped.video/watch?v=4Uvti7T4…
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Joseph Rodgers retweeted
My colleague Jane Nakano and I weigh-up the opportunities and challenges of the Saudi 123 agreement: on the one hand, it's an opportunity to compete with China for regional influence. On the other hand, depending on the details, it could come with 3 risks to the nuclear regime. @csisponi @CSISDefense @CSISEnergy
NEW COMMENTARY:
PONI's Heather Williams and Energy Security and Climate Change's Jane Nakano analyze the Saudi 123 Agreement, arguing the proposed U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear agreement has both risks and opportunities for U.S. national security. What would Washington gain? How might it affect global nonproliferation norms, or shape global interests in nuclear defense capacity? How might it impact U.S. competition with China?
To explore these questions in greater depth, read the full commentary here: csis.org/analysis/nuclear-st…
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Joseph Rodgers retweeted
In recent months, there's been some really great research on Iran's nuclear sites. Hat tip to OSINT experts @DAVIDHALBRIGHT1, @StrickerNonpro, @NicoleGrajewski, @dex_eve, and @sam_lair, and strong analysis from next-gen experts including @baileyschiff.
There's been some discussion about overlap in recent Pickaxe Mountain analysis. Happy to speak to what our work contributed to a growing body of research by several organizations and media outlets, including @TheGoodISIS, @CNN, and @JamesMartinCNS:
-We used 6 years of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to identify more activity at Pickaxe Mountain this year than ever before, not just optical imagery to show a change in activity.
-We offered an original policy analysis comparing the difficulty of striking Fordow versus Pickaxe Mountain, including with GBU-57s: Pickaxe is much harder to hit because it is buried deeper in a granite mountain.
-We found evidence of external reinforcement of the portal tunnel entrances at Pickaxe Mountain in August of 2026.
My hope is that this contributes to the ongoing community-wide effort to address the challenges of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran's nuclear activity has been one of the biggest challenges to the nuclear regime for decades, and tracking it while offering concrete policy solutions will take a diverse field of experts working on the problem. As ever, I’m proud of PONI’s work and look forward to further discussions on Iran’s nuclear program across our multi-generational and ambitious network.
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Joseph Rodgers retweeted
“Advances at Pickaxe Mountain undermine Mr. Trump’s message that the war must continue to ensure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon. What are we doing about the regime’s most dangerous facility?”
Thanks to @WSJ Editorial Board for including my thoughts on one option—blocking access: wsj.com/opinion/pickaxe-moun…
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NEW satellite imagery shows Pickaxe Mountain experiencing more construction activity in 2026 than at any point in its history. Analysis can neither confirm nor deny reports that Iran moved centrifuges into the site, but the nature of activity suggests the facility is not yet capable of enriching uranium.
Learn more: bit.ly/4r0A609
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In our latest report, @CSISPONI analyzed 6 years of satellite radar and optical imagery of Iran’s deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain facility. We found that 2026 has the most construction activity in the site's history.
Read the analysis: csis.org/analysis/satellite-…
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The imagery shows that Iran is entering the final phases of construction at the Pickaxe nuclear facility, shifting from excavation to internal site buildout. The granite mountain is likely beyond the reach of even the largest U.S. conventional bunker-buster munitions.
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Our findings on the underground expansion and its implications for U.S. strike capabilities were featured today by @CNN
edition.cnn.com/2026/09/09/p…
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Joseph Rodgers retweeted
New satellite imagery analysis by @CSIS, shared exclusively with CNN ahead of its publication, indicates there has been “a clear surge in construction activity” at Iran's Pickaxe Mountain site this year.
The underground facility is “likely” designed to be a safe haven for Iran’s nuclear program, per CSIS analysts.
“We may hit Pickaxe very soon,” Trump told reporters last week, adding that “we know everybody that’s moving” at the site.
Story w/ @davis_winkie & @ThomasBordeaux7
cnn.com/2026/09/09/politics/…
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Joseph Rodgers retweeted
How China uses the Non-Aligned Movement to avoid nuclear accountability. New analysis by PONI Research Associate @diyaashtakala for @BulletinAtomic
Read the full analysis here: thebulletin.org/2026/05/how-…
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Joseph Rodgers retweeted
As the U.S. and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire agreement the options for ending this war are timelier than ever. Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) experts @heatherwilly and @NonproJoe explore the difficult choices facing the U.S. in addressing Iran’s nuclear program.
Read the full analysis here:
csis.org/analysis/options-un…
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As a two-week ceasefire takes hold and negotiations resume over Iran’s enrichment and uranium stockpile, the U.S. faces a critical window for diplomacy. @heatherwilly and I explore a range of options to resolve the nuclear challenge here: csis.org/analysis/options-un…
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1/ The Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration just released its FY27 budget request. This is the funding roadmap for U.S. nuclear warhead modernization and the industrial base required to sustain the stockpile.
Key takeaways thread:
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4/ On the facilities side, the “production modernization” funding is increasing by 87%. This is due to plutonium pit production. NNSA is aiming to hit an ambitious new target: producing 100 pits per year by 2028 to refresh the aging core of the stockpile.
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5/ For the full breakdown of the Weapons Activities request, read the Volume 1 FY27 Congressional Justification here: energy.gov/documents/doe-fy-…
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Joseph Rodgers retweeted
The last nuclear arms treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired in February. And both Russia and China are testing weapons systems designed to evade US nuclear defense. PONI Nuclear expert @NonproJoe Rodgers joins CNN to weigh in on how a new nuclear arms race is developing.
Watch the full video here:
piped.video/watch?v=UjE7jLcM…
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Joseph Rodgers retweeted
Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) experts @heatherwilly and @NonproJoe explore the difficult choices facing the U.S. in addressing Iran’s nuclear program, from diplomacy to military action, and weigh the tradeoffs each path carries.
Read the full analysis here:
csis.org/analysis/options-un…
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RT @NicoleGrajewski: Iranian state media confirms the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and announces 40 days of mourning, 7 days of public h…
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