That mismatch is the interesting part. ETF flow magnitude and price impact aren’t proportional — an “average” dollar inflow can still move price more if marginal sell-side liquidity is thinner, while other spot and derivatives flows can contribute too. The cleaner question is how much supply had to be absorbed at the margin, not just flow dollars versus price return.

and it was front loaded. $999M landed on 21 Sep alone, then each day got smaller down to $134M. It's a burst rather than a steady bid.

Ran every month since 2024: September's $2.7B ranks 15th of 32, dead middle. But $2.39B of it, 88%, landed in the breakout week, Sep-21 to 25. The other 13 sessions: $313M. Last print: $135M

+$2.7B September ETF inflows as an average print into a large price move is the tell. Spot ETFs aren't chasing this leg; something else is doing the heavy lifting.

$2.7B is solid, but the price move looks much larger than the flow suggests.