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People are like: The bots have had Reddit for a week and they haven't solved consciousness. This thing is trash!

We really took the stablecoin interest debate to the extremes. Current talking points: Banks: If stablecoins pay interest, we'll destroy the modern banking system Crypto: If stablecoins do not pay interest, China will dominate the globe and the US will be a second-tier nation

Just did a meeting at a major wirehouse: They view the pullback as an opportunity, not a threat. Nearly all of their clients have 0% exposure to crypto today. They want that to be 2%. Off to another meeting…

The relative returns of different monetary crypto assets since Jan. 1, 2025, is remarkable: Bitcoin (BTC): -22% Bitcoin Cash (BCH): +23% Monero (XRM): +97% Zcash (ZEC): +347% Lots of confounding variables here, including that BTC holders were sitting on the biggest cycle-to-date gains at the start of this period, but still, it's remarkable to see.

Bitwise Bitcoin Derivatives Market Update nitter.net/i/spaces/1PlKQObLqwZJE

"I can't tell you if it happens in 90 days or 12 months," said Martin Small, CFO of BlackRock. That's 12 months at the outside. If you're wondering what narratives will lead us out of the bear market, this is one of them. Bullish L1s and quite bullish DeFi imo.

It’s still early, but if you squint, you can start to see the kind of things that will lead us out of the bear market: * The rise of agentic finance (see: Coinbase) * The rise of institutional DeFi (see: BlackRock/Uniswap) * Progress on quantum risk * Tokenization accelerating It takes a lot of positive data points to find a bottom, and there’s every chance there is another leg lower. But we’re at least starting to put a few points on the board.

(There are of course things we should police. But the balance of impact is dramatically positive and egalitarian.)

The insider trading worries about prediction markets are basically backwards. Prediction markets are a markets-based extension of Reg FD, putting us all on a level playing field.

There's an increasing view in crypto that L1 blockspace is a commodity. I wonder if that's wrong. Infrastructure will be commoditized if it's a commodity. But that's not actually the behavior we're seeing with Layer 1s right now. Instead, we're seeing the vast majority of institutional building taking place on very few chains (Ethereum, Solana, etc.) with basically zero interest in building on the twentieth largest L1. A simpler explanation is that top-tier L1s built more bandwidth than the market can use at the moment, so fees are rock-bottom. The real question is what happens when demand scales as stablecoins/tokenization/DeFi grow into the trillions. I'm not sure we know the answer yet.

So far today... 1) Meta revealed plans to roll out stablecoins payments across Facebook, Whatsapp and Instagram (that's 3 billion users); 2) Coinbase turned on stock trading -- 24/5, zero commissions; 3) Kraken rolled out 24/7 perps trading on tokenized stocks; Eight months ago the SEC said "let there be superapps" and the market is responding.

The conspiracy theories are wild. First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and. today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else. The real reason bitcoin is down is that a bunch of people who were long Bitcoin sold their Bitcoin exposure. They sold it via spot, they sold it by unwinding leveraged positions, and they sold it be writing calls against their bitcoin. They sold because of the four year cycle and because of quantum fears and because they wanted to invest in AI start ups and for other reasons. They are mostly done selling and we are in the process of bottoming. We will set new all time highs in the future. This is a classic crypto winter and there will be a classic crypto spring. People want someone to blame — I get it — but the reality is far more boring than that.

Feels like sentiment has shifted on crypto.

Fun fact: We first published this study in 2018. We've updated it every year since using the exact same methodology. The findings have stayed consistent: * 100% win rate over three years * >90% win rate over two year periods * ~5% BTC is a sweet spot * Rebalancing helps