$SPX breadth continues to deteriorate. On Tuesday the index was flat with 249 stocks advancing and 253 declining. Today was flat again, but there were only 176 advancing and 326 declining:
Today is September 22.
According to historical seasonality, we’re entering the ugliest stretch of the month.
Seasonality is context, not a signal.
Let’s see which way the wind blows.
$SPX$SPY$QQQ@Optuma
Despite the $SPX having its best day since August 4th, there were more stocks making new lows than highs:
-> 31 new 1 Month highs 130 new lows
-> 13 new 3 Months highs 68 new lows
-> 7 new 12 Month highs 29 new lows
It's been a similar story for the last few weeks:
$XLK was the only sector beating the $SPX today, making a 54 day relative high. On the downside, $XLRE made an all-time relative low, , and 15 year low for $XLY:
The 37 point loss (-0.48%) in $SPX today can be attributed to just 3 chip stocks:
$NVDA -20.5 points
$AVGO -9.5 points
$MU -6.7 points
As a sector, $XLK is still leading the index on a Relative Rotation Graph basis, but heading in a SW direction towards Weakening:
Sure, Breadth has waned a tad in the last month, but honestly, Utilities, REITS, Staples going down DOESN'T concern me.. RUSSELL 3k A/D still at the highest levels in years.. This "AINT" late 2021, nor 2018, early 2025, nor 2026. Chart from #OPTUMA@Optuma
Historically, September is the worst month for the solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr, averaging, -0.6% and positive only 45% of the time. Of the sectors, $XLU is positive in Sept 63% of the time, but the avg gain is only 0.07%. Monthly averages & % Time Up:
Here's the average September performance for solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr by day. Performance turns negative after the 21st (around the equinox).
The last 3 days of August had more solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr members declining than advancing whilst the index gained slightly. This divergence sees the Breadth Thrust indicator (10EMA of (Adv / Adv+Dec)) crossing below 45 for the 1st time since May.
The solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr index gained 0.7% yesterday, but only 152 stocks gained on the day. $NVDA had its best day since April 2025 (+8.7%) which - at 7.8% of the index - accounted for nearly all the index's 55 point gain.
There's not much green outside of tech on our new heatmap: