Stock market crashed in, 2020 -34% 2008 -56% 2000 - 49% 1990 - 20% 1987 - 34% 1980 - 27% 1973 - 48% … and recovered to all time highs each and every time! $SPX $SPY $QQQ

Today is September 22. According to historical seasonality, we’re entering the ugliest stretch of the month. Seasonality is context, not a signal. Let’s see which way the wind blows. $SPX $SPY $QQQ @Optuma

$SPX Quarterly update Pulled this old chart out from Nov 3, 2025. SPX was around 6,852 when I posted it. Today we're sitting around 7,816 heading into the end of Q3. That's roughly +965 points / +14% since that post. What caught my attention wasn't just price - it was the timing and geometry of these quarterly Gann swings. The 7,318 extension is already behind us. 8,359 is the 161.8% extension and 9,508 is the 200% projection. Doesn't mean price has to go there. Markets don't owe us anything. With Q3 ending Wednesday, I thought it was a good time to pull the original chart back up and compare it with where we are today. Same chart. Same levels. Almost 11 months later. Let's see how this thing plays out. We'll circle back next year again. This is not a trader's chart. It's an investor's map. Nov 3rd, 2025 post 👇 nitter.net/optionflys/status/1985… $SPY $QQQ @Optuma

$SPX — INSIDE MONTH 3 trading days left before September and Q3 are done. August set the range. September tested the low, held it and came right back up. July range: 3.7% - Inside Month September range: 3.6% - Inside Month Almost the exact same setup again. 📈 Take out the high = expansion ↔️ Hold the low and stay inside = more sideways action My priority signals continue to catch these rotations. 3 days left. Let price finish the month and Q3. Then we deal with whatever comes next. $SPY $QQQ @Optuma

$SPX at 7779 standing outside the window like… “I know you got 7816.70 up there. Let me in.” 😂🐻 Bro you already got 7749.54. What else do you want? 😂 One level at a time. Price decides. $SPY $QQQ

$SPX Nine days ago I said the third bull flag was taking its sweet time. Today, it finally broke higher. The first two bull flags resolved higher. Now the third is trying to do the same. Now let’s see if the breakout holds. Sept 12th 👇 nitter.net/optionflys/status/2098… $SPY $QQQ @Optuma

Start shopping for a strong bounce. $SPX is currently working on its 5th consecutive weekly lower low. I went back through the weekly data. 6 consecutive lower lows happened only twice. 7 consecutive lower lows happened only once. This week is still open, so nothing is confirmed yet. This is not a buy signal. It simply tells us the weekly downside sequence is getting extended. Start building the shopping list. Let price confirm the turn. Patience now. $SPX $SPY $QQQ @Optuma

$SPX April 4, 2025 → September 2026. It has been a while since I posted the bigger time frame wave count. Too many traders focus on the smaller time frames and keep moving the goalposts to fit their narrative, but forget to look at the bigger picture. The first chart was the roadmap going into the April low — to the penny. The second chart is where the wave count stands today after the AI boom. Elliott Wave is not about predicting every tick. It’s about building a roadmap, defining invalidation, and adjusting as price confirms or rejects the count. $SPY $QQQ

$SPX 1-Hour Wave Update Yesterday I said the massive rejection from 7,507 was worth paying attention to. Today price answered. SPX cleared 7,579, then 7,624, and moved right back inside the descending channel. That move below the channel is looking more like a throw-over followed by mean reversion than a clean breakdown. But let’s not get carried away. One day does not change the entire outlook. The market still has work to do. Secure the low. Build a higher low. Then break the descending channel and take back structure. Yesterday the wick mattered. Today price confirmed it deserved our attention. Now let price build the next piece. $SPY $QQQ

Something I posted on July 17 is worth revisiting. Today is Sept. 17. $SPX spent: 48 days accepting 6000. 50 days accepting 6900. ~50 days accepting 7500. The timing window landed Aug. 11–12. SPX topped Aug. 12. Yesterday, price came all the way back to 7500 value. Now the question: retest of established value or migration to a lower value area? Price will answer. Read the original post for context. Bookmark this chart. $SPY $QQQ Previous post from July 17th. 👇 nitter.net/optionflys/status/2078…

$SPX 1-Hour Wave Update SPX is now down 3.95% from peak to trough, with 5 consecutive weeks of lower lows. I’m keeping this simple. For now, I’m labeling the entire decline as a basic zig-zag: lower high, lower low. No reason to force a more complicated count until price gives us one. Today’s Fed session finished down 0.45%, but the real story was the rejection from 7,507. Price recovered sharply and left a massive lower wick. That wick matters. But one strong rejection does not mean the low is in. Now SPX has a job to do: secure a low, build a higher low, and start taking back structure. Until that happens, 7,507 is simply today’s low — not THE low. Let price build the next structure. Then we follow it. $SPY $QQQ

$SPX Three bull flags since June. First two broke higher. Third one is taking its sweet time. Fed week next. $SPY $QQQ $SMH @Optuma

$SPX Weekly Update This week gave us an important test of the primary wave count. SPX traded briefly below the 7,581.50 Wave 4 invalidation level by roughly 1 point yesterday, then reclaimed it. The level was breached intraday, but not on a closing basis. Following this morning’s CPI report, SPX rallied approximately 1.27% from the low. That recovery cannot be ignored. For now, I’m keeping the Primary Wave Count on the chart while watching how price behaves around this area. Next week brings the Fed, with the market pricing a high probability of a rate hike. 7,581.50 remains the key level on a closing basis. Hold it, build a higher low, and the Wave 5 path remains open. Lose it on a closing basis, and we move to the higher timeframe and reassess the count. No prediction. No attachment to a count. Price decides. $SPY $QQQ

$SPX Interesting setup going into CPI tomorrow. Blue arrows are CPI release dates since the March low. Red arrows are 4 consecutive lower closes. We only had two 4-day losing streaks since the March low. None of the previous CPI releases came after 4 straight down days. Today also closed with a Doji inside the short-term declining channel. Does this mean we rally tomorrow? Nope. Does it mean we dump tomorrow? Nope. It just means tomorrow's setup is different. Let the market do its thing. We react to price, not headlines. $SPY $QQQ @Optuma

$SPX Follow-up from yesterday. Price continues to work lower inside the channel. Now we’ll see if price starts to build a higher low from here. Risk to reward is very attractive. Can the wave count fail? Absolutely. 7581.50 remains the line in the sand. $SPY $QQQ

$SPX Another channel rejection. Same story. Price keeps getting turned away from the top of this channel. CPI Thursday is the catalyst. If SPX can reverse from here and finally make a higher high, the door opens toward Wave (V). 7581.50 remains the line in the sand. Let the chart do the talking. $SPY $QQQ

Another week in the books. $SPX closed the week with the Weekly Swing DOWN. $QQQ closed with the Weekly Swing UP and a bullish hammer. $SMH closed with the Weekly Swing DOWN and remains below a major lower high. Three major pieces of the market. Three different messages. SPX is cautious. QQQ is trying to lead. Semiconductors are not confirming. Now we head into the long weekend. Next week, something has to give. Watch the swings. Let the market tell us which side wins. Have a great long weekend with your family and friends. $SPY

$VIX This is getting hard to ignore. 2022: VIX dropped 54.4% from its yearly high. 2023: 54.5% 2025: 74.2% 2026: 54.3% — right now. The red and green arrows on the chart are my own proprietary volatility signals. Different years. Different markets. Same volatility compression showing up again. I’m not calling for a crash. I’m not predicting the day. I’m saying pay attention. Volatility is compressed, and my signal is firing again near the lows. The next move in VIX could matter a lot more than people think. solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr $SPY $QQQ

solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr 7581.50 was the line in the sand. Price tested the zone, held it, and bounced again. Higher-degree Wave (IV) remains intact. Now the focus shifts back to whether price can build from here and open the door for Wave (V). Let the chart do the talking. $SPY $QQQ