fao: everyone shitting themselves over treasury yields a decade of low growth and QE has brainwashed a generation of traders into thinking we need low rates to rally, or that higher rates have to kill any risk asset rally yeah, rates matter. 2022 made that pretty fucking clear. but the idea that equities can only go up when money is cheap is just as lazy the price ur willing to pay for future earnings matters. so does how much those earnings can grow. some of u spend all day obsessing over the first bit and barely think about the second and imo AI is changing the second bit massively if u are part of CT u should damn well understand how quickly a technology can go from something people dismiss to something everyone needs exposure to. that doesn’t mean every AI stock is cheap or every company mentioning AI is going to win but it does mean “treasury yields went up” is a pretty shit reason on its own to dismiss the whole trade also, why are yields rising? stronger growth expectations? sticky inflation? more government borrowing? those aren’t all the same story and they don’t all mean the same thing for equities if yields are rising while earnings expectations are collapsing, fair enough, that’s a problem. if the earnings opportunity is expanding fast enough to outweigh the higher cost of money, stocks can still rally imo enough of the boomer institutional world still underestimates AI and will need more exposure. that matters more than every move in the bond market fixed income has a role. but why would higher yields automatically mean u need less AI exposure? the old reflex was “we need cuts before we can have a risk rally” now, imo, the question is “how big can the earnings opportunity become, how much is already priced in, and do i have enough exposure to the businesses that actually capture it?” “i am worried about the us 10y” like why? why are u worried? have u logically thought through the exact pieces of ur panic puzzle? what breaks in the businesses u own? financing costs? customer demand? the valuation ur paying? or are u just applying brainwashed logic under the bucketing of “omg high interest rates are bad for risk”? markets change, and AI is an extremely aggressive technological advancement that imo people are still underestimating. that doesn’t make stocks immune to rates or mean u can pay any price but stop applying the same macro playbook without questioning it. if ur entire bear thesis is “the 10y went up”, think it through before shitting urself.

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