Predictable with Stu is a smarter, more useful way to get the news, using prediction markets to break down what’s happening, why it’s happening and what's next.
Based in United States
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Check out more from @StuDoesAmerica at PredictableShow.com
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When the studio is freezing, @StuDoesAmerica comes prepared.
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WATCH: A new Texas governor poll is out, and @StuDoesAmerica looks at what it means for Greg Abbott’s price in the market and whether there’s more value in the race.
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NEW: The Supreme Court voted 6-3 to temporarily allow the Trump administration to use its expanded SAVE database to help state and local officials verify voters' citizenship, pausing a lower-court ruling that found the system violated federal privacy laws.
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WATCH: @StuDoesAmerica looks at GTA VI's Game of the Year odds and whether its late release date could create a problem for its eligibility.
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JUST IN: Prediction markets are starting to become a real risk-management tool for small businesses. @Kalshi says more than 200 businesses used its platform for hedging last month.
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NEW: President Trump’s elaborate welcome for Chinese President Xi Jinping is drawing criticism from Republican Sens. Roger Wicker, Thom Tillis and John Cornyn, who say the treatment is too generous given China’s support for Iran.
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Stu’s Picks are out now!
See where @StuDoesAmerica is finding value in the markets this week, exclusively for Predictable Premium subscribers.
Link: predictable.substack.com/pub…
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MAINE SENATE: Siena has Susan Collins ahead 49%-46%, while UNH has Troy Jackson up 51%-47%, and UMass Lowell has Jackson ahead 48%-43%.
Prediction market expectations are much less divided, with Jackson currently around 70% and Collins around 32%.
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A new New York Times report details allegations from former aides about turmoil inside Mary Peltola’s campaign.
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TODAY on Predictable w/ Stu:
A bombshell NYT report just hit Alaska’s Senate race. @StuDoesAmerica discusses the allegations surrounding Mary Peltola and how the market reacted to the news. piped.video/watch?v=H9mSzGYa…
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WATCH: @StuDoesAmerica examines the Illinois governor market and explains where he sees the most value in JB Pritzker’s reelection odds.
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NEW: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says Tehran wants to reach an agreement with the U.S. before the November midterms.
Prediction markets currently put the U.S.-Iran ceasefire continuing through November 30th at about 49%.
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NEW: A federal judge temporarily blocked President Trump’s ban on CNN, MS NOW and Politico, ordering the White House to immediately restore their press access. The judge said the outlets are likely to succeed on their due process claims.
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NEW: Another Fed rate hike is looking increasingly likely, with New York Fed President John Williams saying another increase before year-end is a reasonable possibility. Prediction-market expectations for a 25-point October hike have climbed from 38% to about 67%.
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WATCH: @StuDoesAmerica looks at the Oscar nomination market for 'You Can See Everything' and explains why he sees value in the film’s chances.
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JUST IN: A new Marist poll has Democrats leading Republicans 53%-41% on the congressional ballot, while Trump’s job approval sits at 39%.
Polymarket currently puts a Democratic sweep of the House and Senate at 64%, with a Democratic House and Republican Senate at 31%.
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NEW POLL: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49%-44% in Michigan’s Senate race, according to a NYT/Siena poll.
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NEW POLL: Sen. Susan Collins leads Democrat Troy Jackson 49%-46% in Maine’s Senate race, according to a NYT/Siena poll.
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WATCH: @StuDoesAmerica compares Trump’s latest CNN polling with his numbers before the 2018 midterms and explains why the results should concern Republicans heading into November.
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WATCH: @StuDoesAmerica reacts to @scottonPoly's analysis of the Alaska Senate race and explains why he sees Mary Peltola as a valuable position for traders.
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TODAY on Predictable w/ Stu:
Republicans are reportedly hitting the panic button as new polling raises concerns about the midterms.
@StuDoesAmerica breaks down the latest numbers and examines key Senate races in Texas and Alaska. piped.video/watch?v=2v9VZ2S0…
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"If they spend $200 million to try to save Ken Paxton and it doesn't work. It's not their problem. That's all on Paxton."
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WATCH: @StuDoesAmerica introduces Predictable 101, a simple crash course covering how prediction markets work and how you can get involved.
Get started at Predictable101.com
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UPDATE: Prediction markets are pricing in a Fed rate hike in October.
Polymarket currently gives a 25 bps increase a 64% chance, compared with 36% for no change.
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NEW: Mortgage rates just climbed above 7% for the first time in more than two years, with the average 30-year fixed rate reaching 7.12% last week. Higher rates are adding even more pressure to homebuyers.
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WATCH: @StuDoesAmerica reacts after Trump could not be heard during the ribbon-cutting ceremony for the new White House helipad. Major networks had suspended press-pool coverage amid a dispute over White House media access.
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JUST IN: New York has officially surpassed the San Francisco Bay Area as the largest U.S. tech workforce, with about 394,000 tech workers compared with 376,000 in the Bay Area. New York added more than 30,000 tech workers from 2022 to 2025. while the Bay Area lost nearly 24,000.
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Missouri’s congressional map fight is back before the Supreme Court for the third time this month as voting gets underway.
The disputed map could help Republicans gain an additional U.S. House seat, but Polymarket currently puts the probability of Missouri using the new map in November at only about 7%.
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NEW: U.S. and Iranian officials held indirect talks through Qatari mediators at the U.N. as both sides look for a path forward. Prediction-market expectations for the ceasefire lasting through September 30th jumped 18 points to 90%.
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WATCH: Data has shown that Senate polls have overstated Democrats for four straight election cycles, and @StuDoesAmerica discusses what that pattern could mean for Republicans this November.
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TODAY on Predictable w/ Stu:
@StuDoesAmerica examines the GOP’s best-case scenario and whether historical polling misses and the gap between registered and likely voters point to a possible Republican comeback. piped.video/watch?v=wB5dFbGI…
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"Some of these platforms are thinking about doing combos, kind of similar to parlays in sports but around politics."
Political combo markets are coming, and @voliti_co explains why they could be much harder to price than sports combo markets.
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WATCH: @StuDoesAmerica asks @voliti_co for his perspective on the current state of political prediction markets and where the industry could be headed next.
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