aka @timbale.bsky.social Teach politics at @QMPoliticsIR. New book: "The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation"
Suntrap of the South, Sussex.
- Tweets 93,838
- Following 3,512
- Followers 48,578
- Likes 29,562
“You call that statesmanship? I call it an emotional spasm.”
My sceptical (but not Eurosceptical) take for the @NewStatesman
newstatesman.com/comment/202…
5
11
1,966
The evidence that changing PM can help win you a majority at the next election is, shall we say, mixed.
Yes: Eden to Macmillan, Thatcher to Major, May to Johnson.
No: Macmillan to Home, Wilson to Callaghan, Blair to Brown, Cameron to May, Johnson to Truss, Truss to Sunak.
16
20
56
9,196
Thanks @Peston. For those interested in reading further, here's the report in full: esrcpartymembersproject.org/…
1
10
2,693
After 50-yrs I've finally had it with the Today prog. It's not the presenters; it's the papers review which is now unlistenable because (inevitably given market share) it's dominated by headlines from increasingly hyperbolic, obsessive titles, leaving me cursing in the shower.
9
14
54
4,039
You've aged well! Best of luck with your new chapter (as long as it doesn't include vox pops 😉).
6
648
Answer would appear to be yes - very relevant research for anyone who listened to @campbellclaret and @RoryStewartUK discuss the need for education to accompany the extension of the franchise on @RestIsPolitics psa.ac.uk/psa/news/citizensh…
8
6
25
23,723
Falsifiable prediction: James McMurdock leaves parliament (perhaps in the face of a recall petition) and Jake Berry becomes Reform UK's candidate at the resulting by-election in South Basildon and East Thurrock. theguardian.com/politics/202…
11
12
4,024
“We all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.”
― Jean-Claude Juncker
Earlier today, Richard Hughes, chair of the OBR, got to the heart of a significant problem with British politics, which is that politicians don’t feel able to be honest about what is achievable.
“The UK public finances are in an unsustainable position in the long run. The UK cannot afford the array of promises that it has made to the public,” he said.
We have an ageing population and a creaking public realm, plus the climate crisis. Yet despite these long-term challenges, for too long people have been led to believe they can have it all.
1
4
17
3,138
And just in case you're interested, here's my 2017 full-length interview with Lord Tebbit. 2/ENDS theconversation.com/tory-hum…
2
7
1,472
"They say “never meet your heroes” – but meeting your antiheroes can be absolutely fascinating. At least, that was my experience when I met Norman Tebbit." Me for the @Independent on why he was so much more than simply "the Chingford skinhead". 1/n independent.co.uk/voices/nor…
1
9
15
4,877
"A starting point, in my view, must be recognition that the Thatcher experiment failed: it did not transform the underlying performance of the economy for the better. This must now be admitted."
Chances of any Tory MP hoping they have a future in the party doing this?
Zero.
Martin Wolf: The roots of the British malaise lie in a sick economy on.ft.com/44hIZsE
15
35
96
17,025
There's a lot to this IMHO (and hopefully....)
The deeper insight:
Chronic procrastination isn't a character flaw.
It's often a protective mechanism gone haywire—your psyche trying to shield you from failure, judgment, or confronting your limitations.
But protection through inaction becomes its own prison.
3
2,214
The epigram (Polybius: "Histories", Book 10, Ch. 31) that kicks off my latest Tory tome applies equally to Labour - namely:
"Those who know how to win are much more numerous than those who know how to make proper use of their victories."
ft.com/content/46bafc1e-2d36…
1
4
12
5,041
Looking as good as it ever has in the last 700 years, says the Dean - without, as he noted, fear of contradiction.
1
2
10
1,856
@ShippersUnbound still the best inside-story teller, only now in the Speccie.
As an MRP gives the Tories 46 seats at the next election, my piece on the MPs gunning for Kemi Badenoch spectator.co.uk/article/its-…
1
3
5
9,751
Just a reminder @BBCr4today , @Emmabarnett
1
2
2
2,197
Am I right, @YouGov, to presume that so few 2024 Labour voters have left for the Tories that you haven't bothered with them?
Top 5 reasons 2024 Labour voters have left the party for Reform UK
1. Immigration is too high: 62%
2. Labour have broken promises: 44%
3. Reform UK closer to my values: 28%
4= Cost of living not improved: 22%
4= Labour have made no difference: 22%
yougov.co.uk/politics/articl…
2
4
9
2,805