NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS OHIO POLL | September 24, 2026 Our latest survey of 695 likely voters finds Sherrod Brown and Jon Husted essentially tied in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, 40 days before Election Day. 📊 U.S. Senate Ballot 🔵 Sherrod Brown (D): 45.6% 🔴 Jon Husted (R): 45.3% ⚪️ Greg Levy (I): 2.0% ⚪️ Bill Redpath (L): 1.1% ⚪️ Someone else: 0.4% ⚪️ Undecided: 5.5% — Minor candidates and someone else draw a combined 3.5%, far exceeding the gap between Brown and Husted. Another 5.5% remain undecided with less than six weeks to go. Including undecided voters who lean toward a candidate: 🔵Brown 47.3% 🔴Husted 46.8%. –– Brown +0.5. 📊 Head-to-Head: Brown vs. Husted 🔵 Brown: 46.2% 🔴 Husted: 45.7% ⚪️ Undecided: 4.7% ⚪️ Would not vote in a two-candidate race: 3.4% — Excluding those who would not vote in that matchup: 🔵 Brown: 47.8% 🔴 Husted: 47.3% ⚪️ Undecided: 4.9% — Brown +0.5. The race remains effectively tied across ballot treatments. –––––––––––––––––––––––––– Demographic results below reflect the full ballot. 📊 Party Identification • Democrats: Brown 88% • Republicans: Husted 87% • Unaffiliated: Brown 51% / Husted 34% 📊 Gender • Women: Brown +11 • Men: Husted +12 📊 Age • 18–29: Brown +20 • 30–44: Brown +11 • 45–64: Husted +11 • 65+: Husted +2 📊 Geography • Urban: Brown +20 • Suburban: Brown +2 • Rural: Husted +27 📊 Largest Media Markets • Cleveland–Akron: Brown 49% / Husted 41% • Columbus: Brown 45% / Husted 45% • Cincinnati: Brown 41% / Husted 50% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– September 21–23, 2026 · 695 LV · MoE ±4.2 percentage points quantusinsights [dot] org/polling

What's interesting is how far into Trump territory the spending extends. Of the $140.1 million shown, $80.5 million, or 57%, is going into districts Trump won by at least five points. Democrats are committing substantial money beyond narrowly held Republican territory. They have $41.4 million in Trump +5 or greater districts, about 63% of their spending shown. Republicans’ overall spending advantage is concentrated in Trump +0–5 seats. Their $11.4 million advantage there exceeds their $8.5 million advantage across the entire chart. That band is especially important to their strategy. Both parties are spending serious money on a House battlefield that extends well into districts Trump carried comfortably.

It's true.

Where the Texas polls are. First, the two races are tightly coupled by a shared statewide error, but a six-point Senate–Governor gap has held on average across 21 paired polls since June. Our internal model says the most likely single outcome, at 43%, is a split ticket affair. But it's September 23rd, not October 23rd. Let's wait and see. Moving on. Twenty-four public polls of each race since June 1. The Senate race moved from even in June to a stable Talarico lead of about three points by late July and has not moved since. The Governor race has compressed steadily from Abbott +8 in June to about +2 to 2.5 now, driven by Hinojosa's rising name recognition (a third or more of voters had no opinion of her through August). Adjusted, recency-weighted averages: Senate: D+3.1 -Talarico 47.4 -Paxton 44.5 Governor: R+2.7 -Abbott 48.1 -Hinojosa 45.5 Across the 21 polls that tested both races in the same sample, Talarico's margin exceeds Hinojosa's by 6.3 points on average (SD 3.1), and the two margins correlate at only 0.49 poll-to-poll. The gap is a real feature of the electorate, and probably not noise. Fox News (July) measured it directly: 12% of Talarico voters back Abbott, 9% of Paxton voters back Hinojosa; TSU (September) found 38% of likely voters expecting to split their ticket. More to come from our Texas sized model.

To see the report and cross tabs for our North Carolina US Senate survey, head to our website. quantusinsights.org/polling/…

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS NORTH CAROLINA POLL | September 23, 2026 Our latest survey of 686 likely voters finds Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley by 5.1 points in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, 41 days before Election Day. 📊 U.S. Senate Ballot 🔵 Roy Cooper: 48.4% 🔴 Michael Whatley: 43.3% ⚪️ Undecided: 3.6% ⚪️ Minor candidates /someone else: 1.6% ⚪️ Would not vote in this race: 2.9% — Cooper leads by 5.1 points. — Excluding those who would not vote in this race: 🔵 Cooper 49.8% 🔴 Whatley 44.6% — Cooper +5.2 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Party Registration • Democrats: Cooper 92% • Republicans: Whatley 89% • Unaffiliated: Cooper 51% /Whatley 35% 📊 Gender • Women: Cooper +14 • Men: Whatley +5 📊 Race / Ethnicity • White: Whatley +13 • Black: Cooper +71 • Hispanic: Cooper +20 📊 Age • 18–29: Cooper +21 • 30–44: Cooper +16 • 45–64: Cooper +5 • 65+: Whatley +10 📊 Geography • Urban: Cooper +28 • Suburban: Cooper +10 • Rural: Whatley +30 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– September 21–22, 2026 · 686 LV · MoE ±4.2 † Hispanic results: small sample (n=42); directional only. quantusinsights [dot] org/polling

Democrats have widened their generic ballot lead from D+5 in July to D+8 in September in our midterm polling. Democratic support rose from 47% to 50%, while Republicans remain at 42%. Quantus Insights | 2026 Midterm Polling

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS NATIONAL POLL | September 21, 2026 Our latest national survey of 1,389 likely voters finds Democrats holding a clear advantage on the congressional ballot, while President Donald Trump’s job approval stands at just below 40%. 📊 Congressional Generic Ballot 🔵 Democratic candidate: 50.3% 🔴 Republican candidate: 41.7% ⚪️ Undecided: 6.3% ⚪️ Another candidate: 1.7% — Democrats lead by 8.6 points. The Democratic lead holds among established voters: • Voted in the 2022 midterms: D+6.1 • Voted in 2018 midterms: D+8.2 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Trump Job Approval 🟢 Approve: 39.6% 🔴 Disapprove: 59.1% — Net approval: −19.5 points. 📊 Trust to Govern Effectively in Congress 🔵 Democratic Party: 38.9% 🔴 Republican Party: 32.3% ⚪️ Neither party: 23.6% 📊 Direction of the Country 🟢 Right direction: 35.3% 🔴 Wrong track: 60.0% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– September 15–18, 2026 · 1,389 LV · MoE ±2.9 quantusinsights [dot] org/polling

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS GEORGIA SENATE POLL - Sept 18, 2026 Our latest survey of 645 likely Georgia voters finds Democrat Jon Ossoff leading Republican Mike Collins by four points, with neither candidate reaching 50%. 📊 Georgia U.S. Senate 🔵 Jon Ossoff (D): 48.2% 🔴 Mike Collins (R): 44.4% ⚪️ Undecided: 6.5% ⚪️ Someone else: 0.9% ––Ossoff +3.8 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 With Leaners Included 🔵 Jon Ossoff (D): 49.0% 🔴 Mike Collins (R): 44.9% ⚪️ Undecided: 5.2% ⚪️ Someone else: 0.9% ––Ossoff +4.1 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Demographic Breakdown Initial-ballot margins Gender -Women: Ossoff +17 -Men: Collins +10 Race -White: Collins +30 -Black: Ossoff +72 -Hispanic: Ossoff +25 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Candidate Favorability 🔵 Jon Ossoff Favorable: 51.4% | Unfavorable: 45.8% 🔴 Mike Collins Favorable: 44.7% | Unfavorable: 41.0% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– Ossoff leads among women and Black voters, while Collins leads among men and white voters. Suburban voters divide 48% to 44% for Ossoff. September 14–16, 2026 • Full report and crosstabs: quantusinsights [dot] org/polling

D+2 across these 37 districts is hardly a weak number for Democrats. But in April, Cook polled the battleground universe and found it D+6. So the advantage has closed in September. In any case, the pooled sample suggests a large number of Republican held seats within that universe are under significant pressure.

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS MONTANA Senate POLL Our latest survey of 625 likely Montana voters finds Republican Kurt Alme leading the U.S. Senate ballot, with independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead closely matched. 📊 Montana U.S. Senate 🔴 Kurt Alme (R): 43.6% 🟡 Seth Bodnar (I): 24.3% 🔵 Alani Bankhead (D): 23.1% ⚪️ Undecided: 7.2% ⚪️ Someone else: 1.7% ––Alme +19.3 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 With Leaners Included 🔴 Kurt Alme (R): 45.3% 🟡 Seth Bodnar (I): 26.1% 🔵 Alani Bankhead (D): 24.4% ⚪️ Undecided: 2.4% ⚪️ Someone else: 1.7% ––Alme +19.2 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Candidate Favorability 🔴 Kurt Alme Favorable: 48.4% | Unfavorable: 38.9% 🟡 Seth Bodnar Favorable: 43.5% | Unfavorable: 41.8% 🔵 Alani Bankhead Favorable: 32.7% | Unfavorable: 44.0% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– Alme remains below 50%, but comfortably ahead, while Bodnar and Bankhead divide nearly evenly the support for his two principal opponents. Our full release examines voter certainty, second choices, candidate favorability, and demographic and geographic differences. September 14–15, 2026 • 625 LV • Reported MoE ±4.2 points Full report and crosstabs: quantusinsights [dot] org/polling

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS MAINE SENATE POLL | September 16, 2026 Our latest survey of 644 likely Maine voters finds Susan Collins and Troy Jackson essentially tied in a tight, competitive race for U.S. Senate. 📊 Maine U.S. Senate 🔴 Susan Collins (R): 47.1% 🔵 Troy Jackson (D): 46.4% 🟡 Someone else: 1.5% ⚪️ Undecided: 5.0% ––Collins +0.7 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Senate Ballot + Leaners 🔴 Susan Collins (R): 47.6% 🔵 Troy Jackson (D): 47.4% 🟡 Someone else: 1.5% ⚪️ Undecided: 3.5% ––Collins +0.2 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Susan Collins Favorability 🟢 Favorable: 46.3% 🔴 Unfavorable: 53.0% Net favorability: −6.7 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Troy Jackson Favorability 🟢 Favorable: 45.5% 🔴 Unfavorable: 50.6% Net favorability: −5.1 –––––––––––––––––––––––––– Collins draws stronger support from men, older voters and rural communities. Jackson leads among women, younger voters and suburban voters. Neither candidate holds a statistically clear statewide lead. Field dates: September 14–15 Senate ballot base: n= 621 Margin of error: ±4.3 points Full report and crosstabs: quantusinsights [dot] org/polling

The Democratic lead in RCP’s generic ballot average has widened 3 points in 15 days. Sept. 1: 🔵 D 48.0% 🔴 R 42.3% — D+5.7 Sept. 16: 🔵 D 50.2% 🔴 R 41.6% — D+8.6 Almost all of the movement is rising Democratic support, now above 50%.

"If Republicans carry whites by R+11, the model settles near D+7 nationally. If that margin falls toward R+8 or R+9, the national environment begins moving into D+8 to D+9 territory. A result around D+10 is possible, but it requires either a particularly strong Democratic performance among white voters or unusually favorable margins among multiple minority groups at once."

We weren’t quite sure what we’d find in Minnesota’s Senate race. Our results confirm a tight contest in early September. Minnesota’s electorate provides a high ceiling for Democratic candidates, but at this point, Peggy Flanagan is running beneath it. That is the story here.

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS SENATE POLLING | September 11, 2026 Two new statewide surveys from Florida and Minnesota, fielded September 8–10. 📊 Florida U.S. Senate 🔴 Ashley Moody (R): 50.1% 🔵 Angie Nixon (D): 42.7% ⚪️ Undecided: 4.0% Mood favorability 🟢 54.3% favorable 🔴 29.8% unfavorable Nixon favorability 🟢 43.0% 🔴 32.7% Trump Job Approval 🟢 Approve: 48.9% 🔴 Disapprove: 48.9% –––––––––––––––––––––––––– 📊 Minnesota U.S. Senate 🔵 Peggy Flanagan (D): 48.2% 🔴 Michele Tafoya (R): 44.4% ⚪️ Undecided: 4.3% Flanagan favorability 🟢 50.0% favorable 🔴 45.9% unfavorable Tafoya favorability 🟢 42.4% favorable 🔴 42.0% unfavorable Trump Job Approval 🟢 Approve: 38.4% 🔴 Disapprove: 60.5% Florida: 733 likely voters | Minnesota: 720 likely voters. Full reports and crosstabs at QuantusInsights [dot] org.

New polling drops tomorrow from Quantus Insights. It’s a two-for-one: two U.S. state Senate races. Coming soon.

North Carolina absentee requests are telling a very different story depending on the comparison year. 2026 requests as of 9/5: 🔵 Democrats: 21,077 (42.9%) 🔴 Republicans: 9,002 (18.3%) 🟡 Other: 19,032 (38.8%) Vs. the same point in 2024: 🔵 Democrats +3.0 pts 🔴 Republicans -3.1 pts 🟡 Other -0.1 pts But compared with the 2022 midterm: 🔵 Democrats: -13,111 requests (-38%) 🔴 Republicans: +414 (+5%) Democrats made up 53.9% of requests at this point in 2022, versus 42.9% today. Republicans have moved from 13.5% to 18.3%. So while the 2026 request pool is more Democratic than 2024 at this stage, it is considerably less Democratic than the comparable 2022 midterm pool.