Senior Fellow @FPRI. Previously @USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, @CentreAST. Focused on Russian defense policy.

Pinned Tweet
Last month, I interviewed Lieutenant Colonel Vladyslav "Shram" Tovstyi, the commander of the 38th Marine Brigade's (@38obrmp) Corsair UAS Battalion for the Ukraine Military Podcast. (00:00) Introduction (03:35) The background of the Corsair Battalion (04:40) What is the current situation and the effect of weather on the battlefield (06:50) Russian tactics (08:25) Assessment of Russia's Rubicon Center (09:35) Effect of Russia scaling its unmanned systems forces (10:45) What was the effect when Russia lost access to Starlink? (11:20) What effect is Ukraine's Middle Strike campaign having on the front line? (13:43) Urban warfare in Myrnohrad vs fighting for tree lines (16:20) Role of fiber optic cable FPVs and what is the ratio of fiber optic to radio signal FPVs from both sides? (19:35) Use of Starlink on FPVs and heavy bomber drones (20:55) Accuracy of fiber optic cable and radio signal FPVs and how many FPVs are used per day (25:15) The role of tall buildings in drone warfare (26:45) UGV and UAS logistics (29:10) How many heavy bomber drones do you lose per week and what are the typical missions? (30:30) How many UGV missions are conducted per day and how many UGVs do you lose? (32:09) Assessment of the E-points system (34:15) What is the structure of your UAS Battalion? (35:00) What lessons should other militaries draw from this war about drone warfare? (37:15) What effect would another Russian mobilization have on the war? (39:40) How many Molniya and FPV do you face per day? piped.video/watch?v=Kt2N-WEk…
5
199
377
211,999
Rob Lee retweeted
Our exclusive for the Kyiv Independent reveals that Atlant Aero LLC, a major supplier of UAVs to the Russian military, is not currently sanctioned by the British government. This is something my many British politician friends and followers could easily do something about…
⚡️Exclusive: Majority of companies involved in Russian Molniya drone production unsanctioned, research shows kyivindependent.com/exclusiv…
8
194
678
37,472
Rob Lee retweeted
US and Poland close to deal for large base with 10,000 US troops. “We want the kind of U.S. presence that would reassure us, but not be threatening to Russia,” Poland PM Sikorski said. “And we hope that President Trump keeps the promise.” politico.com/news/2026/09/24…
14
57
180
27,552
Rob Lee retweeted
Very important report by Danish intelligence. ‘It added that there was "a low but growing risk" that Russia would launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries that border Russia. "A limited military attack would be a ‌desperate ⁠move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months," it said. Such attacks could include isolated strikes with long-range weapons like drones or missiles on infrastructure supporting Ukraine, or false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones, intelligence service chief Thomas Ahrenkiel said at a press conference.’
22
180
561
112,742
🇱🇹🇺🇸 US troops are returning to Lithuania. A US heavy battalion with Abrams tanks and an engineer battalion will deploy to Lithuania. A strong US presence strengthens deterrence, Lithuania’s defence and NATO’s Eastern Flank. Thank you 🇺🇸!
68
707
4,726
178,792
Daily Ukraine map thread for Tuesday 22nd September 2026 A focus on the midstrike campaign by zooming in on the road near Berdiansk upon which much of the supply goes now with Crimea being heavily interdicted. These drone strikes still continue but just doesn't get much attention due to a lack of footage being released. As seen below from some of the satellite options, we can often see strikes occurring but we cannot always determine what they are. One thing, however, is clear from the footage we do see - If Ukraine intends to impose a true significant disruption upon Russian logistics, the scale of its campaign will need to increase by more than an order of magnitude. There is an extraordinary quantity of traffic to be interrupted Russian strikes continue to have a focus on fuel, warehouses, trains and shopping centers across Ukrainian cities. On the front, Ukraine continue to release footage from the Vivaldi operation north of Lyman, showing positions taken many weeks ago, and prisoners captured. On our side, we've added in a fair bit more information on the unit cards in that area which you can see on the map. Geolocations follow
4
44
218
33,764
Rob Lee retweeted
ru infiltrations in dobropillia/druzhkivka look quite worrying as they spend all the Center GOF reserves to push here (41CAA +90GTD), but remember 1st azov corps got significant reinforcements in terms of X-number of skala battalions and hold 15th NGU in reserve the coming weeks and months will then show if and where ru managed to consolidate
Dobropillia 🇷🇺 ORBAT - Summer 2026 Similar to last year, Russia has significantly reinforced the Dobropillia direction, seeking to capture the town itself while simultaneously developing the southeastern approach toward Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk. To that end, the “Center” Grouping of Forces redeployed most of the 41st Army and elements of the 90th Guards Tank Division to reinforce existing forces in the area, including the 51st Army, 8th Army, and elements of the Naval Infantry. This change in disposition allows the 51st Army to refocus its efforts northwest toward Dobropillia, while the 41st and 8th Armies push north, attempting to maintain this offensive pressure from summer into the fall.
6
34
280
34,150
Road to Druzhkivka
11
95
1,241
49,471
According to @HromadskeUA, Colonel Shatalov has been appointed the next commander of Ukraine’s 30th Marine Corps. hromadske.ua/ukrayina/271425…
At the end of August, I interviewed Colonel Serhii Shatalov, commander of Ukraine's 37th Marine Brigade. (0:39) Shatalov's military background and experience in the war (3:28) The Krynky operation (7:55) Current situation and Russian tactics (9:10) Planting flags and social media (10:50) Infiltration tactics (14:00) Defensive tactics (17:00) Percentage of Russian casualties from UAVs (18:30) Use of fortifications and defensive tactics (20:40) When was the last time you saw a mechanized assault? (21:15) 10:1 Russian manpower advantage (22:25) Russian assault units (22:50) Russia's use of fire support (24:00) How far is Russian artillery from the FLOT? (24:40) Performance of DPICM (26:10) Main threat to Ukrainian artillery (28:00) Countermeasures against UAVs (29:40) Fiber optic cable FPVs and countermeasures (31:50) Electronic warfare (32:15) Effectiveness of HIMARS (33:25) Accuracy of FPVs (34:30) Is Russia closing the gap with UAVs? (36:00) Russia's Sudoplatov and Rubicon units (40:00) UAV vs UAV fight (41:00) How many Russian units are you facing? (42:00) How does Russia employ glide bombs? (42:40) Role of infantry and casualty evacuation (44:20) Leading mobilized servicemen (47:00) Performance of AMX-10 and NATO equipment (49:40) What lessons should NATO learn? (50:25) How would you structure a Marine battalion? (51:20) Effectiveness of mortars and MK-19 (51:45) Have UAVs made artillery or tanks obsolete?
3
14
114
30,440
Ukraine's middle strike campaign has faded from the headlines since the days of the "logistics lockdown," but this domain remains key for the front line. Despite Russian countermeasures, Ukraine's best drone units are keeping the pressure on. My story: kyivindependent.com/inside-t…
4
141
635
91,424
Перший окремий медичний батальйон — один із підрозділів, які долучаються до проєкту «RoboBro». Для нашої роти НРК це означає системну підтримку: техніку, запчастини, транспорт та інше обладнання, необхідне для стабільної роботи команд. Для нас це важливо з дуже простої причини: чим краще забезпечена команда, тим більше можливостей вона має виконувати завдання і доставляти поранених до медиків. Дякуємо @BackAndAlive за підтримку розвитку роботизованої евакуації та за те, що допомагаєте нам масштабувати те, що вже працює і рятує людей. 💚 Підтримай проєкт «РобоБро» донатом - send.monobank.ua/jar/9Sb6Dn1…
2
19
152
24,447
“Vasyl and his mobile drone-hunting crew of three people have only seconds to react to attacks by jet-powered drones, instead of minutes with the propeller versions of the Shahed. Russia is also now launching drones round the clock instead of largely at night. ‘It's aiming to wear down our air defences,’ said Vasyl, adding that drones had been flying all day. ‘It all takes its toll, because we're out on duty and we're ‌not really ⁠getting any sleep.’ Ukraine is intercepting only about 60% of the jet-powered drones, compared to the more than 90% of earlier models that were routinely intercepted, said Yurii Ihnat, the Ukrainian air force's spokesperson.” reuters.com/business/aerospa…
5
57
326
55,535
Video of a Russian Geran-5 intercepted by a Sting-S from @wilendhornets. t.me/wild_hornets/5065
11
22
339
47,341
Video of a Geran-5 being intercepted by a jet-powered interceptor from the SBU. t.me/SBUkr/18655
3
7
86
36,734
3/
Whilst Ukrainian manufacturers are urgently improving their means to counter the new, significantly upgraded Russian Geran-5s, there is now also good news from Germany. I received a video from a credible source showing the successful interception of a Geran-5 by the new SPYS interceptor drone designed via the German-Ukrainian Joint Venture Quantum WIY Industries. To my knowledge it's still undergoing combat testing, but first interceptions are taking place!
1
30
14,685
“Russia's major Moscow refinery, owned by Gazprom Neft, has halted crude oil processing after fires broke out at its primary crude distillation ‌units following a Ukrainian drone attack on September 20, three industry sources said… The sources told Reuters on Monday that both of the refinery's primary crude distillation units caught fire after drones crashed onto the site and that it could take several weeks to repair the damage and restore operations.” reuters.com/business/energy/…
7
96
690
32,482
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met CIA Director John Radcliffe today at Shannon Airport in Ireland while en route to New York to attend UNGA, a person with direct knowledge of the meeting told @FT. Zelenskyy and Ratcliffe met one on one. Their meeting follows our @FT reporting last week that Ratcliffe is moving to play a bigger role in US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Reuters earlier reported the Ireland meeting. ft.com/content/d0557d25-78b5…
6
181
654
110,745
Hello everyone. Today I’m starting another fundraiser to get engineering equipment to Ukraine, and I’m asking for your help by sharing, donating, and liking this post. Even if you can’t donate, sharing it genuinely makes a difference. Plase watch the video with their CV90 Crew explaining the importance of this equipment. The donation link is in the comments below. A good friend of mine from the 21st Mechanized Brigade of the UAF has been working on improving the survivability and effectiveness of the 🇸🇪 CV90 IFVs and, most importantly, the soldiers inside them. He recently reached out to me asking for help getting engineering equipment for his brigade. This is one of those things that doesn’t look as dramatic as drones, armored vehicles, or weapons, but it directly saves lives. A properly dug fighting position, trench, vehicle shelter, or reinforced position can be the difference between soldiers surviving an artillery or drone attack and not coming home. Unfortunately, because of bureaucracy and often simple neglect by higher command, excavation equipment remains critically overlooked. It is one of the most obvious low-hanging fruits on the battlefield: relatively inexpensive machinery that can save soldiers’ lives and protect multimillion-dollar equipment. The brigade already has several excavators, but they are in critically bad condition. We are already working on getting those repaired. But even if every one of them were operational, it still wouldn’t be enough for the brigade’s needs. Their full request is for 3 excavators, transportation for them, a crane, and pickup trucks. The total cost would be around $240,000. I wish I could say we can raise all of it, but with the current level of donations, I don’t think that is realistic. So we scaled the fundraiser down to $100,000. That will allow us to purchase 3 excavators and a truck capable of transporting them. It is still a huge amount of money. But these machines will not sit somewhere in storage. They will be working every day, digging positions, protecting vehicles, and giving Ukrainian soldiers a better chance of surviving. And that is why I’m asking for your help. If you can donate, even a small amount helps. If you can’t donate, please like and repost this post. The more people who see it, the better chance we have of reaching this goal. Thank you to everyone who has supported our previous fundraisers and continues supporting Ukraine. Don't mind the snow in the video, they asked for this in march, and unfortunately I couldn't fundraiser until today. But we have been working on repairing their equipment and supplying some machines since June. Donation link is in the 1st comment below.
42
642
1,322
168,311
Donald Trump pressed his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a call on Sunday to halt Kyiv’s strikes on Russian refineries over concerns the attacks are exacerbating a global diesel shortage and pushing up prices. @FT ft.com/content/adb80fa3-b54a…
72
69
219
335,595
Moscow residents are providing some spectacular views today: the Moscow Oil Refinery burning at several points, thick smoke hanging over the city, and fires visible across the industrial area. Quite a backdrop for the final day of Russia’s parliamentary elections.
63
695
4,674
189,783
Rob Lee retweeted
Here's a translated infographic on just the base transportation costs for Russian wheat from the main southern wheat producing regions. Only the Caspian seems like a viable profitable option as these are prices without VAT and without all railway shipping costs.
2
19
125
18,892
“2.1mn sq m of the country’s 5mn sq m of modern warehouses have been destroyed, with 900,000 sq m alone hit in recent months, according to Ruslan Shostak… Earlier this month, ballistic missile strikes disabled Ukraine’s three major remaining steel plants in the industrial heartlands of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions… ‘As of today, [Ukraine] doesn’t have a steel industry any more,’ Oleksandr Vodoviz, head of the chief executive’s office at Metinvest… ‘They knew everything about the plant, they knew exactly where to hit,’ Vodoviz said. Ballistic missiles targeted the blast furnaces at the three plants, including two owned by Metinvest and an ArcelorMittal factory in Zelenskyy’s native city of Kryvyi Rih. Metinvest and ArcelorMittal said the factories — which together made up 90 per cent of the country’s steel output — were now idle… Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea is also costing Ukraine about 1.5 per cent of GDP, according to government estimates. Agriculture minister Taras Vysotskyi said alternative routes allowed Ukraine to export only 40 per cent of its normal agricultural volumes.” @fabrice_deprez ft.com/content/0ecc81ad-2119…
17
128
516
59,812
Video of a Ukrainian F-16 intercepting a Geran-5 with its cannon. Russia has modified some Gerans to detonate in midair to try to bring down Ukrainian fighters when they pursue them from behind. It is vital to provide Ukraine with more air-to-air missiles so the pilots don’t have to expose themselves to unnecessary risk.
Знищення «Герань-5» з гармати F-16
8
75
531
76,855
2/
Ukraine F-16 Pilots Rationing Missiles as Russian Attacks Intensify | NEWSMAX2 Ukraine’s American-made F-16 fighter jets are defending the skies against Russian drones and cruise missiles — but a critical shortage of U.S.-made missiles is putting that mission at risk. In an exclusive NEWSMAX interview from Kyiv, Ukrainian F-16 wing commander “Phantom” tells foreign correspondent Shelby Wilder that Ukraine needs additional Patriot and AIM-120 missiles, warning that an aircraft without weapons is a “useless tool.” The shortage has reportedly become so severe that Ukrainian pilots are rationing missiles and, on some missions, relying on their F-16s’ onboard cannons to take down Russian aerial threats.
4
4
58
21,843