Buyside since early 2000s. Now Family Office. Equity L/S, Event Driven, Corporate Credit, Sovereign Debt.

New York, USA
Based in United States
R.O.L. Capital retweeted
Zohran Mamdani and AOC spotted laughing at 9/11 ceremony while victims' families weep during reading of names trib.al/WIFi3nn
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
It would only take about 20 of our Superpower small modular turbines to make enough electricity to reduce every thermostat in NYC from 78 degrees to a more human 72. We'd be happy to provide them.
New York: it's hot out there, and the power grid is working overtime to keep us cool. Set your AC to 78 degrees, turn off lights/electronics you're not using, and unplug what you can. Our City is doing its part too: maintaining the 78 degrees rule in our buildings, dimming/turning off our lights during peak electricity demand, asking private partners to do the same, and powering down non-essential equipment. A stable grid means the AC stays on, and lives are saved. Let's ease demand — and get through the heat — together.
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
I am with @DratchCap and a mutual friend (locked account) on this degen idea. < 0.3% position initial size. Was gona double down to 500 contracts if theta hits. We shall see.
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Replying to @Duderichy
it actually cost him billions if you include the sandisk call option he could have bought with the tuition fee.
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
$AMZN + Cerebras are working on a similar disaggregated inference solution as $NVDA + Groq Prefill => runs on Trainium 3 Decode => runs on Cerebras
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
Tokens are how we convert compute into intelligence. At @cerebras we make very very fast tokens. 2 years ago nobody cared. 2 years ago, inference was simple. You asked a question. You got an answer. That's single-shot inference. Call it 1x compute. Then came reasoning. The model stopped just answering. Instead it makes a plan. Breaks the problem into parts. Solves each one. Reassembles the answer. That's 10-100x more tokens per query. Slow tokens frustrate users. In 2025 Paul Graham wrote: "I'd use Google half as much if ChatGPT weren't so slow." Sam Altman jumped on within minutes. Then Elon. Three tweets described the entire cost of being slow. Your customers leave you. Your competitors use it against you. Now we're in the agentic era. Multiple models talking to each other. Running reasoning chains over and over. Vastly more tokens consumed before you see a single word of output. Each stage compounded. Each stage gave better answers. But at the cost of more compute used, more tokens generated. And each stage speed more important. This is why we built @Cerebras the way we did. Wafer scale. Fast memory on-chip. No bottleneck between memory and compute. That's how we provide the fastest AI inference in production.
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
One of the only commodities in the green (other than oil) was tungsten on Friday - up almost 18% from the previous week with a mid price of $2,650/mtu. The 🇺🇸 needs tungsten mined supply at home. #gmtl #gmet @GuardianMetRes
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
Replying to @zephyr_z9
$GMTL IPO’d in USA Today. Was listed in London under GMET LN Thesis: USA produces no tungsten. Zero. None. China produces 85%, Russia and NKorea 10%. GMET owns the largest tungsten resource in the USA. Government already gave them money. Here’s some math for you: - will produce 4k tons. - price is 220k per but in Europe and China already at 300k per - cash costs 40k per - so you have a an asset generating 700-1bn ebitda in 27-28 That’s 0.5x ebitda You are welcome
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
I call for the immediate investigation of NYC Mayor Mamdani for aiding and abetting a terrorist organization. We cannot allow terror cells to infiltrate political office in our country. Traitors should be prosecuted! 🇺🇸
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
Replying to @Pete__Panda
because you havent seen Guardian Metals.... $GMTLF YOU CANT UNSEE IT
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
Not only is the western world running out of tungsten but so is 🇨🇳. This is the inevitable result of decades of underinvestment across the industry. @GuardianMetRes has been highlighting the supply-demand imbalance in tungsten for nearly five years and here we are. #gmet
Boooooooooooom! 💣💣 Kiinan APT rikkoo taas uusia satasen -rajoja!🎉 Kiinan APT 1620 USD/MTU!🔥 Mitä ylemmäs Kiinan hinta nousee, sitä ylemmäs Rotterdamin APT nousee - 2000$ APT tulee vielä H1, vaikka nyt tosin näyttää että se voi tulla jo Q1 2026! #Tungsten $EQR.AX $GMET 🍀
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
These Iranian children,women, men are the BRAVEST people in the world Now over 16,000 innocent Iranians brutally murdered by Islamic Regime JUST this week. This is the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. The people silent are the most COWARDLY people in the world.
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
Here are a bunch of my thoughts on private equity. They won’t be popular. That’s fine. I have been in investment banking or private equity for nearly 20 years, working with and for private equity firms. I’ve interviewed, met with, and interacted with hundreds of PE firms over the years. I’ve worked with good firms and bad firms, good people and bad people. I’ve seen what works and what doesn’t. So that’s my background, but I’m still just one guy with incomplete information, biases, and all the other baggage that comes with being human. Take it with a grain of salt. When I started in the space, private equity felt entrepreneurial. We called them “shops” (maybe that was just us?). They were hungry. They took risks. Success was not guaranteed. I started my career excited about the prospect of joining, buying, fixing, growing, and selling companies. Since then the space has changed. That’s natural in any industry. But PE has become commoditized. A systematic career ladder. People don’t join PE because they love businesses or because they want to innovate. They join because it’s one of the safest, highest-paid tracks in America. If you make it into the system- the right schools, the right banks, the right funds, you’re set. Worst case, you fail and go do something else in finance. Best case, you become a Managing Director (MD) and make generational money. That is not risk-taking. That’s joining a protected class. The industry has been drifting. There are more firms than ever, more funds than ever, and more Patagonia vests being sold than ever before. Profits attract competition. That’s not new. What used to be exciting and entrepreneurial is now systematic. And people inside it are deeply defensive of this system. They don’t want change. Why would they? The system is working for them. It’s the rest of us who are just not appreciating how much value they actually create! (PE is not exactly known for its humility.) But the system is good if you can get inside. Use other people’s money, take out debt, charge fees, and enjoy preferential tax treatment. Still, there are signs of cracking - more recently, returns mimicking the S&P500 and longer hold periods are increasingly normal. Continuation funds are more common. But the point is the system is asymmetric to the benefit of the private equity firms, the GPs. Private equity general partners make money whether their investors do or not and sadly, whether they improve the companies they buy or not. How? Fees. Fees on capital raised, management fees levied on the companies, transaction fees, reimbursements, etc. Keep in mind, these fees are disconnected from performance. Management fees are based on capital raised or charged to the companies for the pleasure of their ownership. On top of that, there can be other fees- transaction fees, deal fees, reimbursements, etc. So right out of the gate, the firm is making money, whether they perform or not. And when private equity does perform, they take a meaningful chunk of that value too. The classic 2&20 structure means they take a 2% fee on the capital raised and 20% of the earnings above a certain threshold (carried interest). All together, ChatGPT reports private equity GPs collect 30-40% of the total economic value of any given deal (it actually caveats that it may be more like 40-50%). Carried interest is designed to align incentives. It is payment for the firm's labor - not return on their own investment. The partners at a private equity firm may invest their own capital, but that is not what we’re talking about here. I’m just sharing the typical take home resulting from the structure. Lucrative. On top of capturing a huge chunk of the economic value, believe it or not, much of the take home pay actually gets preferential tax treatment. Carried interest is taxed at capital gains tax rates, not ordinary income. But that makes sense since PE labor is creating real value, unlike teachers, plumbers, engineers, police officers, salesmen, warehouse workers, bakers, pastors, waitresses, lawncare workers, doctors, nurses, dog trainers, construction workers… you get the point. To be fair, you can’t blame private equity for this - it’s the tax law. They’re just capitalizing on an opportunity, but again, it’s asymmetric. Depending on the year, the private equity partner might pay a lower tax rate than the warehouse worker in the company his firm owns. It’s the Warren Buffett/secretary example. Private equity’s job is to generate returns. That is the job for which they labor. And yet their labor gets taxed at 15–20%, while your labor gets taxed at 25–37% plus state? It just begs the question… why in the world are we subsidizing the labor of private equity? Keep in mind, they’re not deploying their own capital. They’re not the ones who have the capital (they’re just in the process of collecting it). They’re not the ones who run the business. PE buys companies with other people’s money. They charge management fees to the company they own. And when they sell, they collect carried interest taxed as capital gains-not ordinary income like the rest of us. But they don’t just buy companies with other people’s money - they also use debt. Glorious, non-recourse, printed-from-thin-air debt. This debt creates risk. Obviously. But if the PE firm drives a company into the ground, they can walk away. Move on to the next deal with no obligation. Employees lose jobs. Customers lose a supplier. Banks lose their money. But the PE firm keeps their fees. They move on to the next deal. Again, asymmetric potential losses relative to the potential gain. Meanwhile, the small business owning pharmacist who takes out an SBA loan to build his own business has to personally guarantee his loan. If the business goes under, he’s making payments until the bank is whole. A student making an investment in education, with hopes of earning a living (future returns) is stuck with his loan too, even post bankruptcy! So the pharmacist and student have to pay back their loans, but a private equity bro can load a company with debt, run it into the ground, and walk away scot-free? Make it make sense. (By the way, when new debt is issued, money is created out of thin air. This dilutes the power of your dollar- but that’s a topic for another day.) Inside portfolio companies, the dynamic is just as distorted. MDs suggest ideas. Everyone scrambles. FP&A burns weeks. CEOs chase ideas they know are dumb because saying no is dangerous. CFOs burn out. Operators are neutered. I used to think the people in seats before me, who I replaced, were weak. Losers. Why did this guy make this decision? Do things this way? Now I realize they were just beaten down, neutered by spreadsheets and initiatives. They were playing to survive, trying to hang on until their company sold. But PE folks are mostly people who have never run a business, much less worked inside one. They know debt, models, covenants, and exit multiples. And now their spreadsheets impact the most intimate parts of your daily life. They’re buying everything: Dentists. ENT practices. Veterinary clinics. Auto shops. Gyms. Valve distributors. Engineering firms. Healthcare groups. Fast casual chains. Your lunch. Your teeth. Your cancer treatment. Do you really want spreadsheet-driven finance firms deciding how much time your dentist spends with you? Or which treatment plan your oncologist uses? Or where the meat on your sandwich is from? These are finance guys with spreadsheets. Again, these are people who have never been in a business much less run one, and you think that they have the tools and skill set and judgment and moral compass to drive businesses that impact not just your day-to-day life like where you have a sandwich, but your actual health? Your lifespan? Do you expect to live longer with private equity backed healthcare? Take Jersey Mike’s. What do you expect now that PE owns it? Higher quality meats? Better trained employees? No. You expect: prices to go up, quality to erode, employees to become less friendly, the store to be less clean, etc. That’s not innovation. That’s a transfer of wealth from customers and workers to shareholders. And that’s a core problem with private equity - there is no innovation. There’s no risk taking. How can you when you are going to sell as soon as you can? (but not before three years - gotta get that cap gains treatment ;)) Hopefully we’re wrong and we all love Jersey Mike’s even more in a few years but the point is - that’s not your expectation when you hear PE bought your favorite restaurant. No one is excited when they hear private equity bought their favorite business. That tells you a lot. Operationally, private equity often claims to take a long term view but when you know you’re going to sell in just a few years, that’s just not what happens in practice. When you are thinking of selling your home, do you replace the roof? Nah, you just replace the shingles, put a bucket in the attic and hope the next buyer doesn’t notice too much. That may be an extreme example, but it does happen. Regardless of whether that’s the norm or the exception, it’s impossible to be truly long-term oriented when the incentives are to maximize short-term gain. Truth is, PE is optimizing for 3-7 years time horizons, not a 20-year competitive advantage. There is no vision setting, no ideating ten years down the road, no innovation. There are just hard, cold initiatives designed to “optimize” and drive the profits higher. What would I change? Despite the above, I think private equity investing can be a force for good. Like I said, I’ve seen great firms, great deals, and great people. It can be done well. PE would do well to recognize how others perceive them, address the criticisms, and adjust. You see some attempts at that lately (e.g., KKR’s employee equity program being emphasized and advertised), but PE is just not great at admitting mistakes. They seem (to me) to be in an especially defensive, insecure posture. That may be because returns have diminished, holds are longer, and continuation funds have risen in prominence. But there’s more to adjust than just perception. Longer holds would help. Making firms stand behind the debt they use would help (at least require them to pay back the mgmt fees they’ve collected when a company defaults). Transparently connecting fees to performance would help. Ending preferential tax treatment for carry would help. Forcing PE bros to actually work inside operating businesses they control would help. I think the industry is heading for a bifurcation. The mega-funds will keep getting bigger. They’re powerful and political and will dominate fundraising. At the other end, lower-middle-market firms will keep creating real value by taking small businesses to the next level. The middle will get squeezed. You already see it… middle market firms selling stakes in themselves to the big guys (just another PE deal). The real bottleneck going forward won’t be capital or deals. It will be operators. Financial engineering has been competed away. Sourcing has been automated. Spreadsheets can be done with AI (or will be soon). What actually creates value now is people who know how to run, fix, and grow businesses. That’s a good thing, I think. The emphasis isn’t even really on operators so much as it’s on creating real value. Maybe PE bros need to lose the deal sleds for boots and become operators themselves… Which raises an uncomfortable question for private equity: if great managers will create more value in the future, why do they keep giving most of the economics to spreadsheet people? I think for PE’s next chapter, you will see some corrections, and I think those will be great. I think time horizon will be forced longer. You’ll see fewer 3–5 year windows and more 5–7. I hope that goes to 7–10; maybe it will. For my money, the lower middle market is the place to be for the foreseeable future in the PE ecosystem. There, it’s genuinely helpful to equip companies with new tools, sophistication, and access to capital that they may or may not have ever been exposed to. “Launching” these smaller businesses to the next level is valuable to all of us so long as it doesn’t end up in the never-ending cycle of selling from PE firm to PE firm to continuation fund and so on… Despite the dour assessment, private equity isn’t evil. It’s just a tool, a strategy. Or it’s supposed to be. There are always good and bad firms, good and bad people and so on. Good ones exist for sure. But that is just not the dominant flavor anymore. The GP captures upside through fees and carry while transferring downside to LPs, lenders, workers, and the state. This is a structural free option. Private equity is the only industry where you can lose other people’s money, fire workers, default on debt and still become personally richer. It has generated a commoditized wealth-extraction machine that increasingly shapes society without accountability. And I don’t think anyone wants to live in a society run by spreadsheet aristocrats.
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Just getting started GMET LN $GMTLF
Replying to @BurggrabenH
Pst pst: GMET LN
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
.@TheDemocrats must recognize that Zohran Mamdani is the party's future, but unfortunately, it's the Republican Party.
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
A Christian family pleads with Islamists not to kill them in Sudan. Every single one was executed. Where is the outrage?
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
META will be the pod funding short from here. Large, liquid/trades like water, not getting taken out. Quality/momentum/size factor offset from the large cap quality you actually want to own. Revenue deceleration into an investment cycle which I've never seen work for a tech stock. You now have less confidence top-line beats will drive outsized earnings beats. x.com/wallstengine/status/19…
Oppenheimer Downgrades $META to Perform from Outperform "Significant investment in Superintelligence despite unknown revenue opportunity mirrors 2021/2022 Metaverse spending. Implied 4Q opex/capex both 7% ahead of Street and guiding FY26 capex dollar growth 'notably larger than 2025' and expenses 'significantly faster' than 2025's +23%, both ahead of Street." "While 3Q ex-FX advertising +25% vs. 2Q's +21% and 4% above Opco/Street, no rationale for guidance of 600bps deceleration in 4Q. Moreover, we believe investors will struggle to rationalize the PE until there is visibility into 2027, as aggressive revenue growth offset by high spending. This compares to GOOG with predictable earnings at a reasonable PE. Meanwhile, both companies trading at same PE (21x 2027E) and Search could outgrow META at some point in 2026." Analyst: Jason Helfstein
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One of my good friends pointed this out…Here’s an excerpt from the Nobel Peace Prize Winner’s interview shortly before she won the prize. Democrats far and wide need to read this carefully. @CAgovernor @Ilhan @RashidaTlaib @SpeakerPelosi @RepJeffries @BernieSanders @KamalaHarris @GovTimWalz @POTUS @DonaldJTrumpJr @SecScottBessent Nobel Laureate Maria Corina Machado: “Twenty-six years ago, Venezuelan youth fell in love with a socialist in Hugo Chávez. When people pointed to Cuba as a warning, they said, “Venezuela is not Cuba. And Cuba is not real socialism.” But here we are—worse than Cuba. Socialism always follows the same pattern. It elevates the state above the citizen, strips away your autonomy, your conscience, your dignity, your ability to choose. And it does so with a seductive lie. It whispers of equality, but the only equality it delivers is at the bottom—where everyone is dragged down together. That has been the case in every nation, on every continent, in every culture where it has been tried. The result is always the same: a gigantic state that crushes the people beneath it, and once it takes hold, is terribly hard to remove. Only free societies—where the individual comes first—can nurture both liberty and the responsibility that sustains it. Because freedom without responsibility decays, and responsibility without freedom is tyranny. But when merit becomes the path to rise, when effort and creativity are rewarded, then every citizen is called to succeed—the whole nation rises together. That is what we want for Venezuela. And it is why I say to the American people: Do not be seduced. Socialism is the sexiest path to losing your freedom. Guard your freedom jealously. Defend it fiercely. Because freedom is not just an American promise—it is the hope of the world.” 🎩 MP
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
Listen to @ALT5_Sigma cfo Jonathan Hugh (from today) discuss how they are planning to unlock value for $ALTS ⬇️ Imo, I think we see them leverage their $WLFI assets as collateral and raise debt to do a share buyback.
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R.O.L. Capital retweeted
How does $ALTS trade at such a huge discount to $WLFI? The DAT has 32.54 world liberty tokens per share. The stock trading around $3.10/sh represents their treasury valuing $WLFI token at ~$0.095. WLFI has stayed consistently around 0.20 cents. One of these investments is extremely mispriced. Either @worldlibertyfi token is going to experience a massive drop in price. Unlikely as their is "buyback of shares" happening, the treasury cost basis ~0.18 (acting as a floor), insiders/pre sale buyers liquidity is 80% locked up amongst other things. Or @ALT5_Sigma is going to melt faces on the ride up. The stock is down over 60% since the @ALT5_Sigma team announced its world liberty treasury and raised $1.5 billion. 750m through PIPE with WLFI as lead investor and the other 750m was a direct offering through institutions at a negotiated $7.50 per share, again $7.50 per share‼️ Meanwhile the WLFI team that is involved with ALTS has been completely silent during this massive drawdown. @EricTrump removed from director, @zakfolkman from board observer to director, @MatthewMorgan23 as an advisor and @ZachWitkoff who is chairman. Not ONE of these guys who are involved with both ALT5 and WLFI have defended this public company. Do something!
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