It's remarkable that Adam Hamilton has a better shot at flipping the Kansas Senate Seat than Cindy Holscher has of holding on to the Kansas Governorship. Here's how the Senate race compares to the Governor race in the recent Wedgewood poll.

Over the last week, Democrats have led in all 13 national generic ballot polls, by an average of 8.7 points: 50.2% to 41.5%. If that margin held through Election Day, it would be the largest advantage for either party in the national House vote in a midterm since 1986.

Democrats are zooming ahead in the national generic ballot since the start of September, and their lead has expanded to 8.2%.

The polling has been breaking Democrats' way in the last week: Trump's Approval fell to 34.8%, an all-time low. Democrat's lead in the Generic Ballot rose to 7.5%, an all-time high. They lead in 5-GOP controlled Senate races. (RacetotheWH Poll Average)

2028 Democratic Primary Poll Average (@RacetotheWH) 🔵Harris 23.7% 🔵Buttigieg 13.6% 🔵Newsom 13.3% 🔵AOC 10.6% 🔵Ossoff 9.6% 🔵Shapiro 6.2% 🔵Kelly 6% 🔵Pritzker 3.2% 🔵Beshear 3.1%

That was quick! 5 days ago, El-Sayed trailed Rogers by 3%. Today, he's consolidated enough Democratic support to take a slight lead.

2028 Dem. Primary polling average in 11 states @RacetotheWH (top 4) NEW HAMPSHIRE 🔵 Buttigieg — 24.8% (+5.9) 🟣 AOC — 18.9% 🔴 Newsom — 9.8% 🟢 Harris — 5.5% —— MICHIGAN 🔵 Buttigieg — 21.4% (+0.5) 🟠 Whitmer — 20.9% 🟢 Harris — 16.4% 🟣 AOC — 11.1% 🔴 Newsom — 10.2% —— CALIFORNIA 🔴 Newsom — 28.5% (+15) 🟣 AOC — 13.5% 🔵 Buttigieg — 11.3% 🟢 Harris — 10.2% —— MAINE 🔴 Newsom — 16% (+1) 🟣 AOC — 15% 🔵 Buttigieg — 14% 🟢 Harris — 7% —— VERMONT 🟣 AOC — 17% (=) 🔴 Newsom — 17% 🔵 Buttigieg — 16% 🟢 Harris — 6% —— NEVADA 🔴 Newsom — 37.0% (+23.1) 🟣 AOC — 13.9% 🔵 Buttigieg — 8.9% 🟢 Harris — 6% —— ALASKA 🔴 Newsom — 23.0% (+3) 🔵 Buttigieg — 20.0% 🟢 Harris — 19% 🟣 AOC — 17% —— FLORIDA 🔴 Newsom — 23% (+15) 🟣 AOC — 14% 🔵 Buttigieg — 12% 🟢 Harris (wasn't polled) —— NORTH CAROLINA 🔵 Buttigieg — 16.8% (+4.8) 🟢 Harris — 12.0% 🔴 Newsom — 10.2% 🟣 AOC — 4.1% —— OHIO 🔵 Buttigieg — 21.6% (+2.1) 🔴 Newsom — 19.5% 🟣 AOC — 8.1% 🟢 Harris — 6.8% —— TEXAS 🔵 Buttigieg — 21.6% (+2.1) 🔴 Newsom — 19.5% 🟢 Harris — 16.8% 🟣 AOC — 5.6% racetothewh.com/president/20…

People are moving on far too quickly from just how impressive Abdul El-Sayed’s primary victory was. He was outspent by more than 8-to-1. The airwaves were saturated with misleading attack ads. He won anyway.

Trump's approval rating across 7 polls in the week before the new tariff announcement: Approve: 38.6% Disapprove: 58.1% Net: -19.5% Trump's approval rating across 5 polls in the week after the announcement: Approve: 34.0% Disapprove: 62.6% Net: -28.4%

Will there be a lingering price for Democrats for the Graham Platner scandals? It might leave a lingering bad taste in Mainers' minds, but I wouldn't be surprised if it makes it much harder for the GOP to paint Troy Jackson as extreme.

The matchup is set in Maine. It's going to be Troy Jackson versus Susan Collins. At RacetotheWH, we now have the race at Tilt D. Chance to Win: Jackson (D) 68%, Collins (R) 32% Project|ed Margin: Jackson +3.1%

It's AI vs. Everyone in NY-12 today. And @LoganR2WH, the most accurate forecaster in 2022, thinks an upset could be brewing.

Heads up RacetotheWH fans, I'm at the Knicks Parade today to celebrate the championship, so there won't be any new polls added today. We will be back up to date on Friday!

Here's how I made the forecast - which I do routinely for Senate and Gov primaries around the country to power RacetotheWH. 1. I project each candidates vote share, using polling, momentum, fundraising, endorsement, experience, and google searches in CA

Here's the chance each candidate has of making the general election by finishing in the top two. Becerra, Steyer and Hilton have all separated themselves cleanly from the rest of the field.

Xavier Becerra surged ahead at lightning speed since the day Eric Swalwell was forced out, rising from the bottom tier of candidates to the very top in just 30 days.

The gap between the top three candidates is so miniscule. While I think the most likely outcome is Steyer v. Becerra, it would take just the slightest over-performance to turn this into a Becerra v. Hilton or a Steyer v. Hilton general election.

Final Projections for California Governor🧵 Xavier Becerra has zoomed ahead and is slightly favored to finish on top - while Steyer may narrowly eclipse Hilton, which would lead to a Republican lockout.