57 years of tennis playing 49 years of commodity futures trading Creator of wood art ( etsy.com/shop/AZWoodArts )

Arizona
A question of timing..... ‼️
Breaking: Michael Burry warns Big Tech's AI spending could trigger massive write-offs by 2028-2029 Here's his reasoning and what it means for the future: 1. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle have racked up ~$3 trillion combined in purchase commitments, leases, and guarantees tied to AI infrastructure 2. Net capital investment by S&P 500 companies hit 2.07% of GDP as of June 30, the highest level in nearly 40 years outside the 2000 Nasdaq peak 3. Alphabet alone carries nearly $900 billion in off-balance-sheet exposure 4. Burry states "Capital alone is no lasting competitive advantage,". The same capital-cycle pattern that sank previous booms in the markets If Big Tech wipes out these massive investments by 2028, it means tech companies will lose billions in paper profits, stock prices will crash, and chip companies feeding the AI bubble will run out of customers
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🇺🇸 Sentiment At 35, the Fear & Greed Index is stuck in fear territory, but not panic. For US stocks, that leaves room to edge higher if the headlines improve 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=sentiment @CNNBusiness #spx #sp500 #equity #stocks $spx
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An interesting deal! As an IPO of TZero is not going to happen any time soon-this transaction will enable $NXH to realize a monetary value on the Medici assets, potentially able to borrow against, and still fully participate in any increase in value of TZero in a future IPO
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Natural Gas Futures Cling to $3 Handle After In-Line Storage Build: Operators injected 53 Bcf of natural gas into storage in the week ended Sept. 18, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Thursday. The headline figure fell far short… dlvr.it/TVdFpz
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Bears in Retreat as Natural Gas Storage Trajectory Tightens: Prompt month natural gas futures mounted steep intraday gains after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirmed a sixth consecutive seasonally light inventory injection. dlvr.it/TVdK8b
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Markets "feel" the most bearish at bottoms..... $TLT
$TLT is trading below $80 for the 1st time in history. At this point TLT investors must feel like they are in a bottomless pit. The next yearly support level is 77.39.
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Coco Gauff joins World Team Tennis as a player and team owner of the Florida franchise A big get for the soon-to-be-relaunched competition nytimes.com/athletic/7624332…
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My latest memo discusses recent attempts to rein in long-dated government bond yields and why the only sustainable solution is responding to the underlying factors pushing interest rates up, even if politically uncomfortable. You can read it here: oaktreecapital.com/insights/…
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$ENVX short interest jumped nearly 9% to 53.7M shares, roughly 28% of the float. Days to cover: 4.81. That’s a lot of shorts sitting there with some potentially significant catalysts ahead. 👀
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*BREAKING #KC VIETNAM #COFFEE FLOODING: New storms and torrential rains hit Vietnam's already damaged new 2026-27 #robusta crop in TOP-GROWING region of the Central Highlands causing NEW FLOODING and MORE LANDSLIDES as raging water cuts directly through #coffee regions in Gia Lai, Dak Lak and Lam Dong !! Latest damage comes after 2-3 weeks of heavy rains between late August and mid-September which also caused significant additional damage to the new crop that ALREADY had suffered MAJOR and IRREVERSIBLE LOSSES from non-stop weather problems throughout the flowering and bean formation period Feb-June !! *Pix and video from growers in Lam Dong province.
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The 1st such case happened on July 24, 2015. $SPX had already topped on May 21 at 2131, but on July 20 it closed at 2128. The A-D line close below its 200 day MA eventually led to a 12% mini crash from its July top to an intermediate term low on August 25
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Replying to @JoshYoung
What if we funded cutting gasoline and diesel taxes with export taxes on those products? Why ban exports when we can tax them and fund local tax cuts with the proceeds? Too logical?
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$VKTX Maintenance data released this month is a home run and shorts are toast. Very strong competitor to $LLY now probably better on Safety. Very odds of being acquired ($NVO ?). Big #FF to @Pharmdca @semodough @Mufaso7 among others for sharing so graciously DD.
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$VKTX @Biohazard3737 hypothesis of VK2735 significantly better then TRIZ looking pretty good today. Also I stand by imho VK2735 is $NVO killer
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First , $VKTX wt loss retention beats by a mile u modeling @GilaMonstrum .. as predicted 10mg q 2 wks almost retained 100%, with essentially trivial N/V. That is paradigm shift and they can even push the dose as high as u like in next study and still get excellent Tolerance. Monthly .. May be but not as good as q 2 wk Q 2 wk is very balanced for convenient vs chronic issues with all GLP1 such as constipation
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$VKTX My takeaway from the results just announced. VK2735 keeps delivering steady weight loss without slowing down, and patients can maintain those results with either monthly or every‑other‑week dosing - all with side effects similar to placebo. VK2735 works long‑term, doesn’t plateau, and the maintenance dosing is flexible and well‑tolerated.
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Belarus is landlocked. Its export route ran through Lithuania. Lithuania’s foreign minister told Reuters that resuming shipments was off the table while EU sanctions remain in force...
On 21st September 2026, President Trump said the US was negotiating a “massive” Belarus potash purchase at a price below Canada’s. That same day, Lukashenko said Belarus’s output was already contracted for 2026. The missing detail is delivery timing. Belarus Prez Lukashenko’s statement limits the case for a large purchase this year. It does not rule out spare cargoes, redirected sales or contracts for 2027. There is evidence for a smaller opening. On 11 September, Lukashenko said some volumes had become available and a vessel was loading for the US. He also said next year’s business could be considered. Those are his claims, not confirmation that a cargo reached an American buyer. The negotiations have a history. On 15 December 2025, the US Treasury authorized transactions with three Belarusian potash companies. A further US-brokered agreement secured 250 prisoner releases on 19 March. Treasury removed the three companies from its sanctions list on 26 March. Washington had already obtained prisoner releases. Minsk had obtained sanctions relief. Trump is now promoting the commercial opportunity to American farmers and explicitly comparing the prospective price with Canada’s. There is a legitimate economic reason to explore it. Potash supplies potassium that crops need. Another competitive supplier could give American buyers more choice and put pressure on Canadian offers. That benefit does not require Belarus to replace Canada entirely. But American permission to buy does not settle the transport problem. Belarus is landlocked. Its historic export route ran through Lithuania’s port of Klaipeda. In May, Lithuania’s foreign minister told Reuters that resuming shipments was off the table while EU sanctions remained. Those sanctions remain in force. RFE/RL obtained a US proposal seeking transit through Lithuania, Poland or Ukraine to avoid Russia. That matters because Belarus had shifted exports to Russian routes. A US purchase shipped through Russian ports would still pay for Russian transport services. The price comparison therefore needs more than a cheaper offer from the seller. An American buyer must add rail, port charges, ocean freight and delivery inland, then compare the total with Canadian supply delivered to the same destination. A Belarusian offer could still win. Freight does not prove it cannot. But Trump’s post gives no price basis, tonnage, delivery schedule or named buyer. Nor would every Belarusian tonne sold to America necessarily increase world supply. Existing output could be redirected between customers. US buyers might gain another supplier without the world gaining another tonne of fertilizer. My expectation is that individual cargoes and negotiations over 2027 supply are more plausible near-term developments than a rapid replacement of Canadian volumes. That changes if buyers disclose large contracts and a workable delivery program. For farmers, the promised saving becomes real when the fertilizer reaches them at a lower total cost. The diplomatic concessions have already happened. The announcement has not yet established that saving.
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May not happen very soon but something to keep in mind.....
BREAKING: Palantir's Alex Karp says OpenAI will never IPO. His theory: nationalization is the only real exit. When asked what the S-1 risk factors look like, Karp's answer was simple: there is no S-1. The liability exposure from frontier AI is so large that no public market can absorb it. The only entity big enough to backstop it is a government. If Karp is right, OpenAI doesn't become the next Google. It becomes a utility. Or a weapon. The most valuable AI company in the world may have no clean path to public markets. Is nationalization actually the most likely outcome for frontier AI labs?
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Ray Dalio said the quiet part about the AI trade on Bloomberg. A $1B valuation isn't $1B of money. Someone put in $50M, the market marked it to a billion, and now it counts as "wealth." But you can't spend wealth - you have to sell it first. That's the trap: a mountain of paper valuations sitting on a puddle of actual cash. Bubbles don't burst because the story dies - they burst the moment everyone reaches for money at once. And the exit only fits so many. The vig? The house books your paper gains as real, right up until you try to withdraw them.
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