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$MU - On Monday it closed above the 0.618 retracement of the June-July downtrend. Therefore, the next potential upside target is the 0.786 level at 1144. The next earnings are due on September 30. I still think it's a wave B and expect it to break the July low in Q4.
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$SPX opened the day at 7667 but closed it at 7704. It held above the 20 day MA and therefore is still in a position to make a new ATH next week. Closing below the 20 day MA would shift the odds in favor of an intermediate term top being in.
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$META has broken above its January high which means that the low for the year is in. The March low has been confirmed as a major low. There's probably going to be another significant downtrend in Q4, but one that will make a higher low.
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$TLT is trading below $80 for the 1st time in history. At this point TLT investors must feel like they are in a bottomless pit. The next yearly support level is 77.39.
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There's an aspect that plays in favor of the bulls this time if the top is already in. On Oct 4, 2018 BPSPX was at 65. By the Oct 29 low(-9% lower) BPSPX dropped to 31. Today BPSPX is at 37, so if SPY falls 2-3% lower BPSPX will become oversold(~30).
Today was only the second time in the history of SPY where
▪ "NYSE New Lows" was 12% or higher
▪ SPY was within 1.5% of all time highs
And would you like to see how SPX did over the next 55 days last time? I fucking thought so.
[h/t to @BenKizemchuk for the concept&data]
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$SPX was down 0.75% today. If it's still going to make a new ATH in September it shouldn't close below the 20 day MA(now at 7670). A close below the 20 day MA would bring back to the table the possibility that the intermediate term cycle topped on August 13.
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$QQQ - Made a new ATH yesterday. It was the 5th up day in a row and the daily candle was entirely above the upper BB. This was similar to the 5 day up streak at the October 2025 top. This time it probably hasn't topped yet but closing lower a day after a new ATH isn't a good sign
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It's important to emphasize that no major top has ever occurred with the % of stocks above the 50 day MA being at 31%. In early 2025 it recovered to 61% before the final top. If it doesn't rise to at least 55% by Sep 30 SPX will probably not top by then.
$SPXA50R - The S&P 500 percent of stocks above the 50 day moving average was 31.6 on Monday with SPX being less than 1% away from its ATH. Going back to 2009 there were only 2 such additional cases. They happened on Dec 24 and 26, 2024. Less than 2 months before a 20% crash.
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$SPXA50R - The S&P 500 percent of stocks above the 50 day moving average was 31.6 on Monday with SPX being less than 1% away from its ATH. Going back to 2009 there were only 2 such additional cases. They happened on Dec 24 and 26, 2024. Less than 2 months before a 20% crash.
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$BPSPX - Another similarity to a major top from the past can be seen in the S&P 500 bullish percent index. It deteriorated rapidly from 72 on 8/14 to 38 on 9/18. A similar deterioration happened from Dec 4, 2024 to Jan 13,2025. That preceded the 20% crash which started on Feb 19.
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$SPX - The intermediate term cycle which started on July 29 is on day 38. In the previous cycles the top occurred on day 44, which points to 09/30 as the next potential date for a top. The big divergence vs. the A-D line indicates that come October things are likely to get ugly.
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The 2nd such case happened on December 14, 2021. $SPX made a new ATH 2 days earlier and had a 3.2% decline into December 20. From there it started a final rally to a top on January 3, 2022 that was followed by a 9 month bear market into October 2022.
The NYSE Advance-Decline line closed below its 200 day MA on September 16. Going back to 2009 it's only the 3rd case in which the NYSE A-D line was below its 200 day MA and the S&P 500($SPX) was less than 3.2% away from its all time high.
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The 1st such case happened on July 24, 2015. $SPX had already topped on May 21 at 2131, but on July 20 it closed at 2128. The A-D line close below its 200 day MA eventually led to a 12% mini crash from its July top to an intermediate term low on August 25
The NYSE Advance-Decline line closed below its 200 day MA on September 16. Going back to 2009 it's only the 3rd case in which the NYSE A-D line was below its 200 day MA and the S&P 500($SPX) was less than 3.2% away from its all time high.
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The NYSE Advance-Decline line closed below its 200 day MA on September 16. Going back to 2009 it's only the 3rd case in which the NYSE A-D line was below its 200 day MA and the S&P 500($SPX) was less than 3.2% away from its all time high.
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$QQQ - In the last 2 intermediate term cycles the top was made on day 44 of the cycle. If the same thing happens in the current cycle the top of this cycle will occur on September 30. Given that it has exceeded the August high we're looking at a retest of the June high.
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$SOXX has opened the week with a 4%+ up day. If it closes above 560 I would expect it to continue the rally to the 0.618 retracement at 582. The time symmetry I've posted about turned out to be wrong, but nothing has changed with regards to the bearish intermediate picture.
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$MAGS has made a new ATH. Considering the action since November I would be careful to expect a breakaway move higher. In Oct 2025 it topped at 69.14. When it finally broke above it in May it was supposed to go much higher but it topped at 71.16. The next monthly pivot is 73.43.
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$BTC has surpassed its May high so it's now officially in a bull market. The 4 year cycle low was made on July 1st. The next potential resistance is 90.5K.
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This is an exaggeration. The NYSE A-D line topped in April 1998 and SPX kept making new ATHs until March 2000. That said, the bulls shouldn't want a new ATH here, because if there is one, it's going to be a similar setup to Sept 2018, before the crash.
We've never in almost 100 years seen breadth this bad.
The S&P $SPY is knocking on new highs but there are (many) more stocks at lows than highs.
The percentage of stocks in long-term uptrends is plunging.
The only remotely similar setups were January 1973 and November 1999.
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$SPX has managed to close the week above the 20 week MA so there's no confirmation of a weekly downtrend yet. We may see it hit the upper BB in September before starting the real downtrend in Q4. I expect it to drop to the lower band or below it in Q4, as it did in Q1.
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