#OSINT. Mesopotamia and NearEast. Psalm 144

Langley
'Causе times like these make me feel strange.
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Middle East Crude Oil Exports Left: Past 7 days Center: Past 28 days Right: Pre-War baseline #OOTT #IranWar #Tankers
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Middle East: Americans currently in the Middle East should exercise heightened vigilance due to the increased threat of armed attacks by Iranian-supported Houthis and Iranian efforts to target U.S. government officials in the region. Be aware of potential flight cancellations, airspace closures, and travel disruptions. Read the latest country-specific alerts at travel.state.gov/en/internat…
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Alarming satellite images show construction near Iran missile bases: report trib.al/0C8lonG
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I hope that Donald Trump ignores J. D. Vance and the voices pushing desperately for a deal with Iran’s regime. Gen. Jack Keane this morning delivered the bottom line: “We don’t make a deal with these guys… they’ll never comply. They’ll cheat. They want money so they can recover and rebuild… then they return to the predator they’ve always been. That’s a strategic loss. The deal is a pathway to a strategic loss.” Trump had “the courage to start it, and I’m convinced he has the courage to finish it.” “What is finishing it?” That means keep the economic squeeze and blockade, isolate them, and put the regime on a path to collapse so Iranians who want to take it down have a real chance. “That’s the strategic win.”
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Knowing it is a Rubik's Cube does not make you any good at solving a Rubik's Cube.
تشرّفتُ بلقاء رئيس مجلس الوزراء العراقي، السيد علي الزيدي، في بغداد. يشبه الشرق الأوسط مكعّب روبيك؛ إذ ترتبط جميع أوجهه بعضها ببعض، وأي تحريك لأحدها ينعكس على سائر الأوجه. ولا تستطيع دولة واحدة، أو أي قوة من خارج المنطقة، حلّ هذا المكعّب بمفردها. فلا تكتمل صورته إلا عندما تقرّر دول المنطقة أن تمسك بزمام المبادرة، وأن تعمل معاً على تحريك أجزائه، بروح من الصبر والتعاون. وهذا تحديداً هو المسار الذي يمضي فيه العراق. ففي ظل قيادة رئيس مجلس الوزراء السيد علي الزيدي، يختار العراق ترسيخ سيادته بدلاً من الارتهان للتبعية، وتعزيز الاستثمار بدلاً من الركود، وبناء الشراكات بدلاً من أن يكون ساحة لتصفية الحسابات عبر أطراف بالوكالة. وتفخر الولايات المتحدة بالوقوف إلى جانب العراق، والعمل على تعزيز علاقاتنا الاقتصادية والتجارية، وتهيئة الفرص أمام الشركات الأمريكية والكفاءات العراقية على حد سواء، بما يسهم في تحقيق الازدهار والمنفعة المشتركة. كما بحثنا الجهود الأكثر تعقيداً لخفض حدة التوتر في مختلف أنحاء المنطقة، واحتواء الأزمات قبل تفاقمها، وإعطاء الأولوية للحلول الدبلوماسية بدلاً من الانزلاق نحو التصعيد. وتقع المسؤولية في المقام الأول على عاتق دول المنطقة، وجيرانها المستعدين لتحمّل مسؤولية أمنهم ومستقبلهم. هذا هو التحول الذي نشهده اليوم؛ فالولايات المتحدة شريك في هذا المسار، وليست بديلاً عن دول المنطقة في الاضطلاع بهذه المسؤولية. إن عراقاً يتمتع بالسيادة والازدهار، ضمن منطقة تأخذ على عاتقها مسؤولية استقرارها، هو أمر يصبّ في مصلحة العراقيين وجيرانهم والولايات المتحدة على حد سواء.
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The sound of U.S. special-envoy terminology—and the use of the “Rubik”—is striking. I hope one positive outcome from the midterms (if any) is that the State Department takes back indirect oversight of what’s happening in Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut, instead of Mr. Barrack’s social experiments and personal interpretations of Middle East socioeconomics, geopolitics, and history.
تشرّفتُ بلقاء رئيس مجلس الوزراء العراقي، السيد علي الزيدي، في بغداد. يشبه الشرق الأوسط مكعّب روبيك؛ إذ ترتبط جميع أوجهه بعضها ببعض، وأي تحريك لأحدها ينعكس على سائر الأوجه. ولا تستطيع دولة واحدة، أو أي قوة من خارج المنطقة، حلّ هذا المكعّب بمفردها. فلا تكتمل صورته إلا عندما تقرّر دول المنطقة أن تمسك بزمام المبادرة، وأن تعمل معاً على تحريك أجزائه، بروح من الصبر والتعاون. وهذا تحديداً هو المسار الذي يمضي فيه العراق. ففي ظل قيادة رئيس مجلس الوزراء السيد علي الزيدي، يختار العراق ترسيخ سيادته بدلاً من الارتهان للتبعية، وتعزيز الاستثمار بدلاً من الركود، وبناء الشراكات بدلاً من أن يكون ساحة لتصفية الحسابات عبر أطراف بالوكالة. وتفخر الولايات المتحدة بالوقوف إلى جانب العراق، والعمل على تعزيز علاقاتنا الاقتصادية والتجارية، وتهيئة الفرص أمام الشركات الأمريكية والكفاءات العراقية على حد سواء، بما يسهم في تحقيق الازدهار والمنفعة المشتركة. كما بحثنا الجهود الأكثر تعقيداً لخفض حدة التوتر في مختلف أنحاء المنطقة، واحتواء الأزمات قبل تفاقمها، وإعطاء الأولوية للحلول الدبلوماسية بدلاً من الانزلاق نحو التصعيد. وتقع المسؤولية في المقام الأول على عاتق دول المنطقة، وجيرانها المستعدين لتحمّل مسؤولية أمنهم ومستقبلهم. هذا هو التحول الذي نشهده اليوم؛ فالولايات المتحدة شريك في هذا المسار، وليست بديلاً عن دول المنطقة في الاضطلاع بهذه المسؤولية. إن عراقاً يتمتع بالسيادة والازدهار، ضمن منطقة تأخذ على عاتقها مسؤولية استقرارها، هو أمر يصبّ في مصلحة العراقيين وجيرانهم والولايات المتحدة على حد سواء.
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MORE: Allowing state and non-state actors to control transit through global chokepoints risks causing economic disruption for the United States and its partners over the long term. Iranian and Houthi control over the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al Mandeb Strait, respectively, causes economic disruption by increasing insurance rates, raising shipping costs, and imposing transit fees.
NEW: The Houthi-controlled Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC) has reportedly issued voluntary “transit permits” in recent months that grant civilian vessels safe passage through the Bab al Mandeb Strait. The Houthis’ establishment of a permit system sets conditions for the Houthis to exert greater control over maritime traffic through the strait in the future by normalizing the Houthis’ regulation of shipping through the waterway.
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JUST IN: American Embassies across the Middle East have issued additional travel advisories, warning of potential armed attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis and Iranian efforts to target US government officials throughout the region. US citizens in the Middle East should look out for potential flight cancellations, airspace closures, and travel disruptions.
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Iraq: Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi has reportedly sidelined Shia Coordination Framework leaders from engaging in disarmament negotiations with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, which is part of Zaydi’s continued efforts to balance between the United States and Iranian-backed Iraqi actors. Kataib Hezbollah appears to be attempting to counter Zaydi’s efforts to balance between the United States and the militias by stoking tensions between Zaydi and the Shia Coordination Framework. The framework has multiple political tools to thwart Zaydi’s endeavors. Current indicators suggest that Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-directed militia cells conducted drone reconnaissance of the US Embassy in Baghdad on October 27
NEW: The Houthis are seeking to end Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the war in Yemen by demanding Saudi recognition of Houthi sovereignty, which would create conditions for the Houthis to advance their grand strategic objective of controlling all of Yemen. The Houthis have structured a campaign to compel Saudi Arabia to abandon its military intervention in Yemen, which would undermine the Yemeni government’s ability to resist future Houthi efforts to seize the rest of the country. (1/2)
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Why the upcoming two weeks post #Midterms are the most dangerous in both #Iran conflict and #UkraineWar Prof. Robert Pape: 1/ Iran conflict “war” = classic “escalation trap.” US/Israel hits targets and kills leaders, but Iran doesn’t collapse — it keeps/gains control of #Hormuz and ~20% of world oil. Every prior rung (nuclear strikes, longer bombing, blockade) failed to force a deal. Gas prices up, political pressure up, Iran harder to coerce. 2/ Decision-making looks like a gambler chasing losses, not chess. After each failure the incentive is to double down for political relief and a “win” instead of taking a negotiated settlement.
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3/ Next rung: short high-intensity air campaign (~3 days, some reports up to ~7). Instant Thunder-style (1991 Gulf War). Targets leadership, IRGC, missiles/drones, refineries, bridges — meant to paralyze #Iran fast without ground war. US Embassys regional drawdowns and force buildups already noted; post-midterm window framed as deal or “finish them off.” 4/ Prediction: it won’t stay short. 1991 “desert storm “plan also expanded from 72 hours to 43 Air campaign and still failed to fully paralyze Iraq back then. (however, it eventually led to Saddam withdrawal from Kuwait). Iran’s decentralized forces can keep striking Gulf airports, oil, water, shipping with drones/missiles/cyber. Campaign lengthens, civilian casualties rise, oil shocks continue, limited US ground ops become more likely. Once started, hard to stop.
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5/ This risk overlaps the 8 weeks after midterms (highest domestic political tension window). US politics and foreign escalation can reinforce each other. #Ukraine track adds extra pressure if Putin sees no deal. (Core / End of Pape’s warning.)
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5/ This risk overlaps the 8 weeks after midterms (highest domestic political tension window). US politics and foreign escalation can reinforce each other. Ukraine track adds extra pressure if #Putin sees no deal. (Core of Pape’s warning.)
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State of the global markets:
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Time for President Trump to deal with Iran once and for all. Just do it. Nothing to lose now. Finish the job. @POTUS
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The people who tried convincing our nation that President Trump not finishing the job in Iran was the best plan, and who instead encouraged our country to negotiate with terrorists, will forever be humiliated in my opinion by the sordid and fatal error (I think it was deliberately malicious) of trying to negotiate with Islamic terrorists. I voted for President Trump every time he was on the ballot. You’re not going to tell me I didn’t know the foreign policy I voted for. POTUS never claimed he would become a modern day Hitler. He was always pro-Israel and he always said he would stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon, and even said he’d use military action to get it done. Those who say we didn’t vote for that are lying to themselves. Yes we did. I certainly voted for that. Thank you, @POTUS for seeing the longterm goal of Islamic totalitarianism and working so hard to prevent that from being our future. It’s more important than being friendly with anti-American podcasters who are likely all paid by Russia, Iran and Qatar. Trump understands that. Sadly I don’t think everyone who works for him does.
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DISLOYAL TO THE PRESIDENT: "First of all, I was kind of shocked by that statement that Vice President Vance put out—it was, quite frankly, disloyal to the President of the United States... Why is his Vice President saying something different? He needs Donald Trump’s endorsement to run for president, or he is not going to get the nomination." @marcthiessen
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MORE: Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's remarks suggest that Iran will maintain its maximalist demands regardless of the US election results, which senior Iranian officials have portrayed as evidence of the success of Iran’s strategy. Iran is using suboptimal systems to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. US military overmatch is currently preventing Iran from significantly decreasing the transit of civilian tankers through the Strait, however. Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Lebanese Hezbollah advisers are reportedly stationed within Yemen to advise the Houthis on various military efforts and capabilities that primarily serve Iran’s strategic objectives.
NEW: Iranian leaders view the US midterm election results from November 3 as evidence that Iran’s military strategy imposed political costs on the sitting US administration. These leaders do not believe that the elections will lead to any fundamental shift in the US approach to Iran. (1/2)
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