$NBIS investor since Jan 2025 Follow my journey in stacking $NBIS shares Current count: 6800 shares -3 Dec26 $210 puts ARE YOU READY FOR THE AGENTIC ERA?
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Most of you know me as the buff Arkady who knows $NBIS better than most people know their own family.
Well… meet the version with glasses: @nebulizerlabs.
Yesterday I took the first step and launched my Substack.
The goal is simple: go deeper 😏
Genuinely, thank y'all for your parasocial support. For cheering on my obsessions and autistic deep dives. You've helped me rediscover how much I love writing, researching, and teaching myself new things.
In particular, I want to thank these individuals for sharing my work and encouraging me to keep putting myself out there.
@babyfolio
@TheBigBerbowski
@AndersInvests
@EndicottInvests
@FrancisCashFlow
@RayT168
@mvcinvesting
@geokoutalidis
@reelyphishy
Nothing on X is going behind a wall! Substack just has better UI/UX scaffolding for longer form content. Expect plenty of free research.
I hope it becomes a place for those who want to understand, not just trade the headlines.
With that being said: Part 1 of Nebulizer’s Guide to Nebius is live ⚡️
My most in-depth $NBIS writeup yet. Completely free. ദ്ദി(˵ •̀ ᴗ - ˵ ) ✧
Time to grow some fresh cortical folds.
smasimho.substack.com/
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Morning walk on the hilly slopes in the neighbourhood of Bukchon-ro. Love the cool weather!
Historically known as the residential quarter for the Joseon Dynasty's high-ranking nobility and aristocracy, it has maintained its reputation as a prestigious, affluent neighborhood.
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Join Nebius on October 1 for Building and Evaluating Clinical Speech AI.
Learn how to deploy Nemotron Speech on Nebius while adapting speech recognition to medical terminology and maintaining privacy within clinical workflows.
Register: nebius.com/events/webinar-cl…
Made with AI
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Ray.t168 - Nebiusmaxxing 🇸🇬 retweeted
$NBIS CRO Marc Boroditsky reveals Nebius has four customers ready to sign for every GPU and is turning away 75% of demand, and says there's another 18 months of reasonable clarity
"If you look at our pipeline today, for every GPU, we have a customer ready to sign. We have four customers ready to sign for every GPU. You can just think about that for a moment. We're saying no 75% of the time. That's today."
"Now, does that continue into the future? If you look at the plans that customers are sharing with us and are looking for commitments with us, it actually moves well into next year. And their willingness right now to sign up for tens of thousands of GPUs in the middle of next year is very high."
"And there's a sort of growing level of fear that if you don't actually secure your future, you're not gonna have the compute that you need in order to be able to succeed."
"So I would say that there's probably reasonable clarity for another 18 months at the current rates. Beyond that, we're trying to figure it out by actually utilizing new pricing mechanisms. We introduced an auction about a month ago. This week, we also introduced spot price."
$NBIS Arkady Volozh reveals Nebius recently auctioned its Blackwell compute and cleared 15% to 20% above any price it had ever sold before
"Well, when you have this imbalance between demand and supply, the best price discovery mechanism is something like an auction, in one way or another."
"Again, we try to do it manually first to raise the prices. It didn't help. The demand is still there."
"What is the best mechanism to discover what is the real price, what the real price balance should be?"
"We ran our first experimental auction for the Blackwell processors a month ago, several weeks ago. We achieved results when we got 15%, 20% higher price than we ever sold before, after all our price raises."
"We like the experience, but more importantly, our clients like the experience. The guys who won this auction, they tweeted that they're happy that they were able to get guaranteed capacity through this mechanism."
"Because this is the only way when there's a deficit of resources and you need it."
"What is the way to get it guaranteed? Go in the price competition and win. And they won the auction, and they were happy about it, and we are happy about it."
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Ever wanted to understand $NBIS beyond the headlines? What actually makes the business tick?
Part 1 of Nebulizer’s Guide to Nebius is live.
My most in-depth $NBIS writeup yet. Completely free. ദ്ദി(˵ •̀ ᴗ - ˵ ) ✧
Link in comments + bio.
ALT https://smasimho.substack.com/p/nebulizers-guide-to-the-nebius-p1
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Ray.t168 - Nebiusmaxxing 🇸🇬 retweeted
$NBIS TECHNICAL/OPTIONS CHAIN ANALYSIS:
- below is the options chain for Nebius. These are all near-expiry contracts for both puts and calls. Over the last few updates, the data has gotten all the more interesting leading into Friday.
- on Thursday we had a substantial bounce led by fundamentals; (the price target increase and semianalysis giving Nebius a platinum rating on clusterMAX 3.0)
- I made a claim that if we can clear above $240-245 into Friday’s session, we could possibly see $250-260 into the close. The strikes expiring at $235 won’t have nearly as much bearing on price action as the contracts near or at the money, as expiry day has the strongest hedging. The strike thats very interesting is once again… $250.
- this contract had 21,000 in volume against 8,000 in open interest. Looking at this alone, you can’t tell if dealers are the ones who are short gamma exposed, but Nebius is a very retail-heavy company, where retail historically purchases contracts and dealers sell to them.
- speaking of which, pay attention to the $260 strike… $260 has 8,800 volume against 4,000 OI. Although we haven’t interacted with $260 yet, it’s intriguing that price action on Thursday had rejected $248.50. If we continue to reject $250, then that means dealers are actually long gamma, making that level a genuine call wall. I believe that at $250 we are still short gamma, and possibly the same with $260. We must wait to see how price interacts to be absolutely certain.
- at market open, assuming my thesis is correct about gamma exposure, the strikes above $245 have by far the most bearing on price action. From market open to midday, $250 calls out-hedge lower strikes by a ratio of roughly 2:1. When price is at $245, dealers must hedge 98,000 shares for every 1% move when holding the $250 call; and when they’re holding the $245 call, they only have to hedge 42,000 every 1% move. The difference is insane, and it’s at its highest strength tomorrow.
- if I am wrong about this and $250 is genuinely long gamma for dealers, then it could act as a call wall. Price action today indicated that our thesis is slightly more likely to be true, as when price came close to the $250 strike, it got sold off to $243 rather violently; fitting the profile of short gamma. (although that could be immense profit taking on an 8% up day.)
- I am keeping my eyes peeled for how price interacts with $250. I still maintain that the flip to short gamma is around $245 (+/- $2). just stay patient and watch price action. I’d say favour for a $250+ close if we can sustain above $248.50. (assuming buyers continue to step in)
NFA DYOR
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The writing is on the wall (all over my X feed today).
$NBIS is going pedal-to-the-metal on the Agentic Stack. Remember, this layer sits even higher than @nebiustf and carries even richer margin economics.
Only a few weeks ago during Goldman Fireside, Mark Boroditsky said:
"We're going to be adding to our agentic capabilities. Right now we're delivering blueprints but we'll be building out more and more solutions to support agentic requirements."
Just today we saw WEKA for shared KV cache / long-context agent memory, and now Comet Opik for agent observability, tracing and evals.
The pieces are starting to snap together. And if I know one thing, it’s that Nebius is relentless about taking customer feedback, iterating quickly, and bringing new products to market to continuously improve its stack.
AI Cloud → Token Factory → Agentic AI Stack
nitter.net/Cometml/status/2103209…
We’re excited to announce that Opik is now available within @nebiusai Cloud Applications, giving AI builders application-level agent observability and evaluation inside one of the most powerful end-to-end AI cloud platforms available today.
Learn more about using Opik within your Nebius AI stack: comet.com/site/blog/opik-neb…
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Guess what's the no.1 business in Korea 😂
Ladies are already queuing up early morning for this.
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Ray.t168 - Nebiusmaxxing 🇸🇬 retweeted
$NBIS is a $399 stock trading at $240... Here's why.
piped.video/92bAvFPsxuY?si=oC-b…
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New benchmark results from @weka and Nebius show the impact of shared KV caching on sustained agentic inference.
Running on @nvidia HGX B300 instances in Nebius AI Cloud, WEKA’s Augmented Memory Grid served 2.4× more requests than HBM-only while keeping median time to first token near one second.
Worth a read for anyone working through the infrastructure demands of long-context agents: nebius.com/blog/posts/nebius…
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Been a stressful month for sure.
Dont give up just because the price went down or keep chopping.
Stick to your thesis and HODL!
$NBIS
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