I talk about Canadian 🇨🇦 Oil | Low cost-of-supply permabull | Won some cool awards 🏆 | Not a qualified financial advisor, but a very qualified SAGD expert ♨️
Calgary, Alberta
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Away on vacation for the next couple of weeks but a few thoughts : world’s energy and material balance doesn’t close friends…Trump needs to do something before the midterms, imho not much he can do. Everything here is mental gymnastics, it always was and always will be an exercise in shake and bake. Practically, I don’t see quick resolution to this historic crisis in energy security.🫡🪒
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In SAGD, steam both heats bitumen to lower its viscosity and holds reservoir pressure so the mobilized oil can drain into the producer.
Once a steam chamber is mature and enough heat is stored in the rock, much of the injected steam is wasted replacing heat lost to the overburden rather than unlocking new oil.
Co-injecting a non-condensable gas such as natural gas at that stage lets the gas accumulate at the top and edges of the chamber, maintain pressure, and insulate against heat loss so steam rates can be cut and the freed steam sent to newer well pairs.
Adding infill collector wells between existing pairs then recovers bitumen that would otherwise stay behind. Used together, late-life NCG co-injection and infills lower the steam-oil ratio, operating cost, water use, and emissions intensity while improving recovery from already-heated reservoir. 🫡🪒
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charlie
Good morning from ALBERTA 🇨🇦 Christina Lake NORTH... In this specific region there is 4.14 BILLION !!barrels of original bitumen in place stored at average pay height of 24 meters !! reservoir pressure of 2.1 MPa and a reservoir temperature of 13°C, thus needs steam to be drained by gravity. 🫡🪒
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Razor Oil retweeted
Looks like Europe and the US will coordinate another round of SPR release.
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Razor Oil retweeted
I wanted to share the story of the events last night with me. There is a lot speculation and conspiracies, not sure why middle aged men have heart attacks everyday folks. I was out on my evening walk and a few blocks away from my house when it happened. I knew it was very bad. I somehow made it to my house and went inside and took a low dose aspirin and headed for my truck to drive to the hospital. I yelled at my wife to just follow me I was having a heart attack and I split. Once I got to the hospital they quickly administered clot busting drugs and ordered a chopper as the EKG looked very bad. I don’t know all the medical terminology but I was having a widowmaker heart attack. By the time the chopper got there the clot busting drugs were working and all the pain had disappeared. I truly believed I was in the clear, I felt good, but I wasn’t. I was cutting jokes with the pilot and nurses on the chopper and taking pics and they let me, but they knew how serious my condition truly was, they just didn’t want to scare me, because I was dying. When we got to the second hospital they wheeled me in and it seems like there was 8-10 people all over me, even though I felt better. That’s when I knew I wasn’t as good as I thought I was, and a few minutes later they took me into the cath lab where the heart attack came roaring back worse then ever. I remember the pain of it but nothing else, I woke up when it was over and once again felt great. It wasn’t until I got to my room that my wife told me they had to bring me back twice as I had flat lined while they were trying to get the stint in me. I have no memory of that but it did make me realize the severity and gravity of what had happened. I had a 100% block of that main artery. So that’s the story, I’m still in the hospital feeling better but very sore from being shocked and the trauma of the attack itself. I just stood on my own feet for the first time since yesterday and it was an accomplishment, I’m pretty weak. I was prepared for this in a way because I have the worst family history you can have with heart problems so I knew exactly what to do, but I’m still not sure how I walked those blocks to my house and then drove to the hospital, guess I was just determined to survive. Thank you all so much, I’ve never recieved so many messages of love and support in my life, it’s a bit overwhelming, but it means the world to me. Thanks again guys, I’ll see you soon.
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Razor Oil retweeted
WOW! Fox News lies about everything. They’ve been running "pain at the pump ends any second now, they pinky swear™" for years.
Fox News isn’t journalism—it’s a Scam with better lighting.
If you’re still watching, you’re not staying informed. You’re just the mark they keep recycling.
I hope this finds you well. TikTok, Donny-boy.
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Fyi my thoughts on $ATH.TO as it’s been a while 🫡🪒
I assume WEF wants to do a $tve.to $hwx.to type of deal with them, the question will $ath.to get any premium from $scr.to and my guess that’s where the issue could be. Corner development right now is likely a mistake, aggressive buybacks strategy could’ve been a better approach for me but I do understand how they look at it which is fine.
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“The company has no appetite for green field major in-situ projects.” This is a major disclosure for investors like me that don’t look to invest in greenfield development. Good work to remain low cost of supply producer $CVE.TO 🫡🪒
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@ExnerPirot you may recall my comments from the talk I gave last year. This is inline with my expectations for all of them.
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Wanted to share some thoughts on what’s happening right now….There’s no doubt the 🇸🇦 EW pipeline will remain under stress on the west side of Saudi Arabia. That was already an issue before the current issue with the Houthis began, so this situation is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. Even if they fix the pumping stations, nothing guarantees it won’t happen again. As long as the pipeline itself isn’t damaged, flows can continue….under lower pressure conditions… What concerns me most and I suspect many others feel the same is this: if Iran is not being especially effective at blocking passage through the strait of hummus, that may be a longer-term strategy. They could wait and then strike an offloading facility closer to US elections... That would be a much bigger problem. It’s why even smart people at JPM and other friends are having a hard time forecasting and setting a baseline, just as we heard today. At any moment a critical facility could be hit and go offline, which would completely change the flow dynamics. The US can still move some barrels, but the geopolitical instability should keep everyone humble. We simply don’t know where this is heading. Markets hate uncertainty, that’s why you’re seeing so much shake and bake volatility.
The key question for me is whether Iran is deliberately waiting to act closer to the U.S. elections. That’s my base case. Don’t listen to narratives….even this narrative you are reading now…Data only. Numbers only.
Even if you have reasonably good visibility on current flows, the future supply-demand picture still looks different. There will be incremental demand to refill strategic petroleum reserves and rebuild inventories….and that is bullish...maybe not $100 oil but not below $80 next year if things somehow magically get resolved…and that makes Canadian oil low cost of supply producers attractive even at current prices.🫡🪒
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