We are 9 months into 2026 fiscal year. Let's take a
look at Federal budget deficit YTD and compare to history
First point, the deficit is too high, despite change in trendline
However,
1. The upward trend from 2022-24 has been reversed
2. 2026 (June 2026 rolling 12) is running below 2023
3. 2026 is running below CBO's Jan 2025 forecast 0f $1.713T (assuming Trump tax cuts expired in 2026
4. 2026 is running better than CBO's forecast of summer of 2025 that included impacts of Trump's Big Beautiful Bill that increased 2026 deficit forecast from $1.7T to $2.2B. In fact we are running 0.5T better than forecast, when we were told BBA would add trillions to the deficits