So far, this storm is a reminder that weathermen exist to make economists look good.

Relative Strength: Russell 1000 Insights & Analysis Catch the full episode here: piped.video/f2EVDf1bP44 Hawk and Awe: RenMac Off-Script #MarketAnalysis #Investing

Treasury Yields Hit Highest Level Since Before Financial Crisis Get the story on the RenMac Pod: piped.video/f2EVDf1bP44 Hawk and Awe: RenMac Off-Script #Yields #Markets #Economy

Fed Rate Hike Rationale Get the full story on the RenMac Pod: piped.video/f2EVDf1bP44 Hawk and Awe: RenMac Off-Script #InterestRates #Economy #Finance

Durable goods shipments remain quite strong, but it is worth noting that key components (especially primary and fabricated metals) are largely a price story. One way to read the figure: below the line implies contraction in real terms and above the line implies the opposite.

An update to our $SPCX vs other marquee IPOs over the last 30-yrs. We called it a hype tax in June, and the market collected it. History suggests better opportunities around beginning of year.

Anecdotes aren’t a substitute for hard data but this follows news from Disney raising subscription prices. The bigger issue is that it’s all happening with core inflation already well above the Fed’s target.

Supply chains are screwed up, but probably not as screwed up as they were a few years ago, which implies that there is less room for improvement in supply chains to bring price relief. This means we'll need to rely more on demand to get inflation consistent with price stability.

Oil prices coming off the boil has not kept two year yields from continuing to press to fresh highs.

While the headline Philly non-manufacturing index was worse, there was an uptick in employment with prices paid climbing to its highest level since April. Not much evidence of price relief in the services sector - unwelcome news with inflation still running above target.

"Hard-pressed" to call financial conditions restrictive. The Fed's 1Y FCI-G stood at -0.35 in August, meaning conditions are adding that much to GDP growth over the coming year (negative = tailwind). If financial conditions are boosting GDP, it's difficult to see inflation returning to target "soon."

The Reality of Real Rates Catch the full episode here: piped.video/DK3Y74QVeb8 There Is An Alternative: RenMac Off-Script #Investing #Finance #Bonds

Consumer spending is showing signs of slowing — right as the Fed starts raising interest rates. That's going to be a double drag on the US economy. bit.ly/4xYyd6S

Data Center Debate: Campaign Rhetoric vs. Governing Reality Catch the full episode here: piped.video/DK3Y74QVeb8 There Is An Alternative: RenMac Off-Script #Politics #Economics #Policy

Consumer Headwinds: Why Higher Costs Are Ahead Catch the full episode here: piped.video/DK3Y74QVeb8 There Is An Alternative: RenMac Off-Script #Economy #ConsumerSpending

Fed's Interest Rate Strategy Catch the full episode here: piped.video/DK3Y74QVeb8 There Is An Alternative: RenMac Off-Script #FedPolicy #Economics #Finance

Why the Polls are so Close Catch the full episode here: piped.video/DK3Y74QVeb8 There Is An Alternative: RenMac Off-Script #USPolitics #Elections #Economy

Unpacking Warsh's Comments on Price Stability Catch the full episode here: piped.video/DK3Y74QVeb8 There Is An Alternative: RenMac Off-Script #Fed #Economy #Inflation