Obviously, risk reacting to the move in bond yields which jumped on the hot PMI prints and made worse by an ugly 5yr auction
This however is what a world of fiscal dominance looks like
They’re running running it hot hot hot, maintaining eye watering deficits which keeps nominal growth high which pulls yields higher
Nominal growth however isn’t sufficient to outpace the debt, so the debt spiral with higher yields accelerates
Consequently they’ll have no choice but to monetise the debt
Would be shocked if China buying treasuries isn’t part of the discussion and negotiations between Trump and Xi - US treasuries after all are the US biggest export
Bessent gonna need a bigger buyback boat as well most likely
But you leave the bonds to governments and central banks to hold and monetise
You buy the crypto and the equities
On top of all of this, we’re approaching quarter end which is a big negative for liquidity and boosts the dollar
So think it might be a choppy few days but that will at best give you some dips to get long this market because it’s going to full send in Q4
If you get Bitcoin in the 78/82k zone really load up the truck
But as we say, no need to be too cute about it, the bus won’t wait too long
So no, bonds selling off here in a world of fiscal dominance isn’t a reason for caution
It’s the reason you need to be loading up on crypto and equities