“Money is made by sitting, not trading.”¹ — Jesse Livermore ¹Edwin Lefèvre, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (New York: Dodd, Mead & Company, 1923)

The market is up +0.5% right now, just 170 points from all-time highs. It’s Friday, so it’ll be interesting to see how the weekly candle closes. I’m still bullish and holding all my positions except OKTA and INDA.

Why Is It Important to Maintain Conviction in Times of Uncertainty? Let’s start with the basics in terms of commercial trading operations. None of us enjoy being in negative territory or seeing our portfolio experience volatility during uncertain times. In fact, when we are starting out in trading, we fantasize about a P&L curve that moves straight from Point A to Point B, generating a 50% yield or more in a single year—and in a perfectly straight line, no less. Now, when someone on X posits that possibility through their neatly edited charts, we know they are a fraud. In real life, it doesn't work that way. As Peter Lynch once put it, if you’re looking for certainty, you’re in the wrong place.¹ Maintaining conviction during erratic market moments is a complex endeavor that should not be taken lightly. First, holding a losing position is the graveyard of so-called veteran traders who are now washing cars (with all due respect to professionals in the art of cleaning). Second, you need sufficient experience and specific data before venturing to let a single position—or the portfolio as a whole—run into negative territory. For practical purposes, we are not talking about an operator trying to maintain conviction while their portfolio is down -10% on the year and simply holding on, waiting for another -10% drawdown. In that scenario, the ideal move would be to close all positions and conduct a thorough evaluation of what is going wrong. It would have been far more profitable to buy shares of the SPY ETF on 01/01/2026 and go to sleep. We are talking about the responsible operator who is positive for the year and recognizes that their thesis may take time to play out. It is around that operator that I will address the question: why is it important to maintain conviction in times of uncertainty? It Is a Matter of Ego When the portfolio does not perform as expected, the first line of defense to step up is our ego. It tells us everything is fine, that the market will respond, and that we shouldn't make adjustments. In the eager pursuit of being right—of refusing to accept that we might be wrong—we allow ourselves to be swayed by the sweet words of error. We throw whatever little common sense we have left out the window and wander into Alice in Wonderland, assuming that, in the end, everything will be fine. Let me say it plainly: you will NOT be fine; you will blow up your account, you absolute idiot. (Forgive me, I got a little carried away). Let’s move on. It Is a Matter of Understanding the Data / The Price Recently, I had the opportunity to converse with a market veteran. I do not know his real name, as he keeps it private and uses only an acronym intended to reflect his understanding of the markets. He helped me realize that, as human beings, we carry an awful emotional baggage that causes even the smartest people to fail when undertaking the noble task of capital management. It is simple: we do not listen to the price; we listen to ourselves. When trading and deciding whether to maintain conviction, we make decisions based on the "I" rather than on what our system actually dictates. That is precisely where the problem lies. Just Hold the Position In the series Billions, Season 1, Episode 4 (titled "Short Squeeze"), Bobby "Axe" Axelrod prepares to board a private jet with his childhood friends to attend a Metallica concert in Quebec. On the tarmac, he speaks on the phone with one of his portfolio managers/traders—who is buckling under market pressure due to an attack on his positions—and delivers the line: "Like your wife says, hold the fucking position until I tell you I'm done."² Real, objective conviction stems from deep, consistent work developed by an operator over years. It does not happen as a result of reading a post on X on a Friday night. Maintaining conviction occurs naturally for the experienced operator who, after calculating every possible variable, chooses to wait for their thesis to develop. It is not a decision made aimlessly hoping for luck; it is the correct alignment of variables telling them they hold alpha if they hold the position. Despite current shifts and uncertainty, the thesis has not changed. Have a great afternoon/evening, everyone. _____________________________________________ ¹ Peter Lynch, One Up On Wall Street: How to Use What You Know to Make Money in the Market (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1989), 142. ² Billions, season 1, episode 4, "Short Squeeze," directed by James Foley, written by Young Il Kim, aired February 7, 2016, on Showtime.

This is the best post of the day. It shows the right way to evaluate trades and draw the corresponding conclusions. He says he’s been swing trading for two years; I’m 98% sure that: O He has spent several years trading a different timeframe—intraday or core. O He has someone helping him with his trading, specifically with reviewing his trading log. O He is the child of a successful trader. I don’t know who you are, but thanks for your comment. Note: I've been following you for a while and am renewing my subscription lol.

5 Ways to Improve Your Market Performance — by the late Van K. Tharp, Ph.D. 1. Invest with the current trend of the market. "Before entering the market, know what the market is doing. Is it going up or down? Look at the $SPY and compare its price with the 200-day moving average. When the market is above its 200-day moving average, it has historically performed better than when it is below it. The 200-day moving average can help keep you on the right side of the major market trend. If prices break below it, consider reducing your exposure." 2. Never enter a position without knowing where you will get out. "Before entering any position, determine your exit point. The investment industry often promotes “buy and hold,” but holding without an exit plan can expose you to major losses. If you don’t know where to get out, you don’t know your risk." Tharp suggested a 25% trailing stop as a minimum for long-term positions, giving a position room to trend while providing protection against a major decline. 3. Never risk more than 1% of your portfolio on any position. "Position size should be determined by your risk, not by how much you want to buy. If you have a $25,000 portfolio, risking 1% means limiting your potential loss to $250 on any position. If your stop is $2 away, you can buy 125 shares. If your stop is $20 away, you can buy only 12 shares. The position size changes, but the portfolio risk remains the same. Stay safe to live long enough in the markets so you can learn and improve." 4. Continually observe your patterns, habits and emotions. "Self-awareness is essential to improvement. Pay attention to what you are thinking and feeling when entering, managing and exiting trades. Keep a trading journal and look for recurring emotions, thoughts and behaviours that may be hurting your performance. The goal is not to eliminate emotions, but to become aware of them without allowing them to control your decisions." 5. Take responsibility for your results. "It is easy to blame the market, your broker, analysts, fund managers or external events when things go wrong. But avoiding personal responsibility prevents you from learning from your mistakes. If you take full accountability for your results, you can identify what went wrong, correct it and avoid repeating the same mistakes. No matter what happens in the market, take responsibility for your results. That’s how you learn and improve." PS: Some of the greatest free trading resources can be found on “The Gifts of Dr. Van Tharp” website. They are timeless vantharp.com/tharps-thoughts…

There are only two explanations for those who maintain conviction in markets like these: those who have developed a clear, measurable method that, through their analysis, tells them they should remain active; and those who, due to a lack of experience, remain frozen because they simply do not know what to do. In my case, I strengthen my experience by learning from people who are smarter than I am, and I reinforce my methodology by examining it from different angles. That process helps me maintain conviction.

I am keeping all my portfolio positions open. Yesterday, I exited only OKTA with a +40% gain on a 5% position size one built incrementally via #Shiell to @Norseman1 channel. What we are seeing in $ES_F and $NQ_F is not a double-top pattern; those types of setups carry different implications than the current price action. Stay focused and don't get distracted by the noise.

$NQ_F Daily Chart. I remain bullish. The price pullback seen yesterday and today's movement represent a natural pause in price action. A series of three or four lower highs and lows following the previous peak strengthens the move toward a new all-time high. This is not a bull trap. Bull traps exhibit a different type of structure. "Don't look at the tree; observe the forest".

Week prior said we'll be lower in 6 months to the tune of 53.3% Bears. The most Bears since May 2025! Just out of the Tariff lows! The NASDAQ made a new all-time highs anyway...Persistent pessimism and total lack of acceptance. This is not “Major Topping” sentiment. Week Ending 9/23/26 Bulls: 32.7% Bears: 48.1% @AAIISentiment

The level of psychological pressure encountered in the markets is easier to manage if you base your trading on what the prices are saying rather than on your own thoughts. Leaving aside preconceptions is just as important as having the capital to trade.

Consistency!

Oh, how cute—Norse already has haters. @Norseman1 It has proven its worth over the years; I am glad it can be visible.

Conclusion: in a bull market, even the most inept stock picker can make some money, whereas in a bear market, not even the most skilled succeed. Therefore, the general trend comes first, and stock selection second. Only those who invest for a period of at least twenty years need not concern themselves with the general trend.¹ ¹Kostolany, André. El arte de reflexionar sobre el dinero. Conversaciones en un café. Barcelona: Deusto, 2022, p. 157.

This really strikes me as very interesting. I see some talented and experienced traders trying to help others from time to time. Unfortunately, it is very difficult; people simply react by trying to prove—in one way or another—that perhaps they aren't entirely wrong and that they should be right, even if their trading account disagrees.

$SPX The low stands at 7,756.26, and the price has failed to retrace more than 20% of yesterday's move (September 26, 2021).Demand is consolidating as the market prepares for a rally toward new all-time highs. Opening a short position right now is not the best option, given the conditions observed across various timeframes. I do not wish to cut profits, use hedges, or go short outright while the timeframes remain within their typical extension ranges. Positive gamma levels identify 7836 as a good point to evaluate extended positions, take profits, and utilize hedges.

A better future is rarely built by one giant breakthrough. It is built when you become slightly wiser with your money, slightly stronger in your discipline, slightly sharper in your skills, and slightly more intentional with your time, day after day. What looks like sudden success from the outside is often years of invisible improvement. Keep improving in silence. One day, your results will explain the work.

Profitability in the markets is inversely proportional to the constant execution of trades. The greater the frequency of daily execution, the lower the likelihood of achieving sustainable returns over time. Conversely, the lower the frequency of execution, and the more time devoted to observing, analyzing, and managing capital, the greater the potential to develop sustainable returns. For this reason, consistent commercial activity that leads to profitability is not primarily found in opening and closing trades, but in the management and administration of capital. This means that most of the work lies in following market dynamics, studying market behavior, searching for new opportunities, evaluating existing positions, managing risk, adjusting exposure, and determining where capital should be allocated. From this perspective, we could conceptually represent the trader's work as 98% dedicated to observing, researching, analyzing, seeking opportunities, and managing positions and capital, versus 2% devoted to the actual execution of trades. Execution is only a small part of the process. The real work lies in everything that happens before, during, and after a trade.

Genio!

$INDA I'll be following this. I see potential for the future.