Macro Systems Analyst Economics | Demographics | Deglobalization | Reindustrialization TG: shorturl.at/TBEv2 YT: piped.video/@RogueMacro
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Every week I publish my Macro Missive.
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🚨NEW ROGUE MISSIVE - Weekly wrap-up of our independent macro research.
Global Bond Panic Is Spreading
War risk drives yields higher from Tokyo to Paris, bitcoin targets $90,000, Mexico’s fertility rate collapses, and the predicted blue wave meets a new electoral map.
Link🔽 Follow for commentary for independent thinkers.
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Independent macro research for investors and critical thinkers. Your support is appreciated!
Link: roguemacro.substack.com/p/gl…
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Did iron use lead to the end of the Bronze Age? No.
The claim here is that bronze was only available to "the richest and most powerful groups," and iron bloomeries decentralized that power.
There are several false claims here. Bronze was widely used, including in farming implements like sickles, axes, hoes, chisels, and saws. Bronze metallurgy was not merely an elite weapons industry. It was an economy-wide technology, connected to farming, forestry, carpentry, construction, shipping and warfare (in the West).
Bronze weapons were possessed by smaller kingdoms, cities, local elites and communities throughout Europe and the Mediterranean. States controlled workshops and distribution in some regions, but there was no general imperial monopoly on bronze or organized violence.
Iron was still very rare in 1200 BC during the Late Bronze Age Collapse, though the technology had been around for hundreds of years by that time. Bloomeries couldn't melt iron, so no casting iron for another 1000 years. They had to beat the slag out of it, a highly energy intensive process. Iron production increased only after the LBAC.
Bronze could be cast at lower temps and recycled. The only limitation was access to tin. When trade networks broken down, they could no longer make new bronze, so they turned to iron. Not the other way around.
I had not realised before that the Bronze Age Collapse was literally *caused* by iron.
Bronze age powers like the Egyptians, Hittites and Babylonians used bronze weapons, made by combining copper and tin. Tin was so scarce that only the richest and most powerful groups could access it and the bronze weapons it allowed. (Tin was so rare that it was being transported from Cornwall to the Middle East more than 1000 years BC.) The scarcity of tin gave these empires a near-monopoly on violence.
Iron weapons are not actually any better than bronze ones – they're not stronger or easier to work with, as I'd assumed. They're just much, much easier to mass produce once you have bloomeries, which are the first furnaces that were hot enough to melt iron in a way that made them useable for weapons.
Bloomeries meant that iron ore, which was widespread, could be used to make weapons anywhere. That led to warlords, bandits and city-states rising in a massive decentralization of military power, which the Bronze Age empires were unable to resist.
After the invention of the bloomery, skeletons show a measurable increase in weapon-inflicted injuries. 'Destruction layers' with bones and signs of burning have been found from this time at archaeological sites including Troy. Ancient writers – including Herodotus, Ovid, and the writers of the Old Testament – believed the invention of iron had unleashed a new age of violence.
New at Works in Progress, WEAPONS OF MASS DECENTRALIZATION: how iron itself brought about the Bronze Age Collapse. And what technologies could do the same today?
worksinprogress.co/issue/wea…
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RogueMacro retweeted
🇺🇸SHOCKING: I'm shook by the blow-off top behavior in the US10Y. I didn't think it would get this high, but it's typical behavior to peak at EOQ3.
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Remember, the fertility rate collapse is not due to mothers having fewer kids, it's fewer women becoming mothers.
Once a woman has a kid, they tend to have a similar number as they did decades ago, even slightly higher in the US. But many fewer women get off zero.
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Women are the lonelier gender by far. They need community and family by their nature. Men don't like being lonely, but they can handle it quite well if they can find a purpose. Singles events are almost always 90% women.
"Women are happily single"
"Men are lonely because women don't want them."
“Women started making money and caring about character, and all of a sudden there is a male loneliness epidemic”
"Men need marriage and relationships more than women."
"Men push for marriage because they want a slave."
If you don't want to be a slave to a man, why are you attending singles events?
Why are you creating all these events and attending them, then complaining that lonely men aren't showing up?
I thought y'all didn't need men?
I thought it’s men that’s lonely?
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Isn't it crazy that no one has joined the US so the IRGC goons can still call it "US pressure." Where are our allies? We won't forget.
🚨BREAKING:
IRAN’S PRESIDENT SAYS TEHRAN “WILL NEVER BOW” TO U.S. PRESSURE
HE SAYS IRAN IS OPEN TO DIPLOMACY, BUT WILL NOT ACCEPT “THE LANGUAGE OF FORCE”
MARKETS CRASHED AFTER THE SPEECH
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🇲🇽A total disaster is growing south of the border. Mexico's fertility rate has dropped to only 1.23, far below even the worst US state.
Mexico City is an astonishingly low 0.79, putting it below Singapore, and the lowest fertility city outside East Asia.
Mexican fertility in free fall!!!
According to the 2025 intercensal survey, Mexico had 130,393,389 inhabitants, 3.5% more than in 2020.
The survey found a TFR of 1.23 children per woman for 2024, down from 1.60 in the 2020-22 period.
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Where my oil bulls at?? Tired of constantly being wrong yet??
Peak oil doomers, where you at?
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"Most of the analysts estimate prices would already be dramatically higher if China had kept buying at pre-war levels."
The next level is to describe how and why some analysts like Rogue Macro were able to predict this?
Because it's China who's economy is a paper tiger and in a controlled decline, not the US.
🇨🇳🛢️ China's crude imports collapsed 45% during the war from 10.4mb/d to 5.7mb/d.
That gap is a big reason Brent didn't spike past $200 like some feared.
Most of the analysts estimate prices would already be dramatically higher if China had kept buying at pre-war levels.
Now the real question?
September imports jumped to 7.84mb/d from 7.25mb/d in August the first sustained monthly acceleration since the war began.
If China keeps closing that gap back toward 10mb/d, that's demand the market hasn't priced in, layering on top of an already-drained global inventory picture.
Watch Chinese import data more closely than the headlines right now it's doing more to set the price than most of the geopolitics.
themerchantsnews.substack.co…
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Time to ban diesel exports from the US.
Diesel has completely decoupled from crude.
Since the strike on Iran in late February, low-sulphur gasoil went from tracking Brent almost 1:1 to trading at nearly double it now above $200/barrel equivalent while Brent sits around $110.
Crude got cheaper through the summer; diesel never really followed it down and it's now ripping higher again into autumn.
image source: FT
themerchantsnews.substack.co…
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While Arctic sea routes are possible, their widespread future importance due to global warming are highly exaggerated.
Sea ice is much thicker at the North Pole this year than last year. The Arctic melting scam is collapsing in real time.
ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethick…
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