I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market. When Bitcoin was smaller and retail dominated, hot money fueled explosive rallies and 80% crashes. Today, a much larger market and growing institutional ownership are dampening both extremes. The same forces that limit the upside also soften the downside. The PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability, reflects this: less extreme cycle tops and bottoms forming at higher profitability levels. This cycle, MVRV never fell below 1. Even at the lows, BTC stayed above holders' average on-chain cost basis. Some investors took losses, but holders as a whole never went underwater. Meanwhile: → Rising realized cap signals fresh capital inflows. → OG whales have stopped selling. → Futures whales built large longs near the bottom. Even the PnL Index's 365-day moving average, which typically lags at turning points, is forming a meaningful inflection right now. None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has changed. Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, and that is exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money. The road here was messy and nothing like a straight line, but the destination may be closer to what Satoshi described than the speculative years ever were: an asset stable enough to actually be used as money. The vision shared by Satoshi and generations of Bitcoiners, once called a self-fulfilling prophecy, may finally be becoming reality. Once Bitcoin grows mature enough to serve as real money, internet-native capital could reshape the world in ways far beyond what you imagine.

KYC is dangerous and must be completely abolished.

Not going to lie. This is a pretty baller line from Bessent. “I am the house now”

Serious question. If Coldcard’s RNG was silently bypassed for years due to a firmware/build bug, what’s stopping the same class of subtle entropy failures from existing in other hardware signing devices (Trezor, Ledger, BitBox, Jade, etc.)? Are we just assuming their TRNG + mixing designs are solid because nothing has blown up yet, or has anyone actually audited the equivalent code paths?

Regarding the Coldcard entropy bug – many folks are explaining what happened but I wanted to take a minute to explain why it may have happened. It's a disastrous situation and our heart goes out to all the Bitcoiners affected. Here's a timeline of events: On July 28 2020: @FoundationHQ announced our first Passport hardware wallet and noted that we were building on Coldcard firmware which at the time was GPLv3 licensed (FOSS license). On July 30 2020: NVK publicly said he regretted choosing GPL because Coldcard now had a “clone” and that they would change things in future updates. nitter.net/nvk/status/12888603458… On November 18 2020: Coldcard added its MIT + Commons Clause license, prohibiting commercial products substantially derived from the software. github.com/Coldcard/firmware… On January 8, 2021: Coldcard firmware 3.2.1 formally announced, “License changed from GPL to MIT+CC on files for which the GPL doesn’t apply.” CC is the "Commons Clause" license addendum which is "source available" instead of FOSS. On March 1, 2021: The “First pass w/ libNgU” commit removed the GPL @Trezor-derived crypto libraries and replaced them with libNgU. That same 120-file commit changed seed generation code. libNgU was licensed with a novel “Licensed for Bitcoin Only” license. On March 17, 2021: Version 4.0.0 announced that all crypto and BIP39 code had been replaced and that the “last remaining GPL code” was removed. blog.coinkite.com/version-4.… github.com/Coldcard/firmware… Our best understanding right now is that the entropy bug was collateral damage from this major overhaul of the codebase. To be clear, this overhaul was not solely about licensing. Coldcard also cited technical goals including adopting Bitcoin Core’s libsecp256k1, faster AES and SHA implementations, and reproducible builds. But the timeline establishes two things: (1) Foundation’s launch was the obvious impetus for Coldcard’s licensing change, and (2) removing the remaining GPL code was an explicit goal of the subsequent v4 rewrite. We don't know by how much the licensing pressure affected the scope or timeline of the rewrite. All we can determine is that the entropy bug was introduced inside the same 120-file commit that removed the old GPL code dependencies.

JUST IN: Bitcoin is now 59.4% sustainably powered 🥇Higher than any reported global industry ⬆️Up 7.0% since last Cambridge survey 14 months ago 🌊Largest power source: hydro Source: Cambridge 2026

I published a note today that I've been thinking about for months.. About how the US stock market has arguably become too big and too imp to fail.. It's basically America's retirement fund now and poss even the savior of social security which is expected to run out of money in less than 10yrs -Curr 55% of ppl own stocks, by far most in world. And w/ Trump Accounts bringing in 28 million add'l americans into stock ownership the vast majority of ppl (incl Top 1% (who own HALF of stock mkt), middle class and lower income) will have financial interest in the health of stock mkt and they're all voters = the political pressure to keep stocks out of a prolonged bear market is going to be very powerful. -As such I think there's good chance the Fed will buy equity ETFs in the next major downturn to support market and it will be common practice going fwd. China and Japan already do this. They may even target certain sectors or Capex cos with the purchases. -This is a massive variable that I feel like is a blind spot among the experts out there and why the bears get run over time and time again altho I think investors are onto it as evidenced by the persistent flows into ETFs during pullbacks as well as a survey of 1000 ppl showing 3/4 of them are confident the Fed will bail out markets in next crisis. -This is just one byproduct of the 'Nothing Stops This Train' monetary supply explosion and debt extravaganza sweeping the world but esp in US which at this point feels irreversable.. Thoughts? lol

Bitcoin is money Lightning is Bitcoin No one is leading this charge harder than @CashApp and @Square @Jack is actually doing more for Bitcoin adoption than anyone, and I have really changed my tune about him Thank you for staying Bitcoin only and spreading the knowledge Support merchants who support freedom money!

$35T market is cute, US dollar rails carry over $1 quadrillion because that’s the reserve asset/currency of the world It’s hyperbitcoinization not be 1% of the US dollar market, you got a currency as a reserve instead of a commodity because gold failed for the digital age

No, you do not. I have not sold any of my Bitcoin. Tesla sold 10% of its holdings essentially to prove liquidity of Bitcoin as an alternative to holding cash on balance sheet.

They just keep coming! New paper finds that Bitcoin mining operations are extremely flexible loads that supports renewable-led decarbonization by absorbing excess renewable generation The authors found that operations can curtail demand almost immediately, participate in demand response programs, and provide ancillary services which directly enhances grid stability while enabling higher renewable energy integration Read that last para again, and compare it to what most people still believe about Bitcoin mining. The asymmetry between what we now know about Bitcoin mining, and the actions of policymakers and regulators is simply enormous. Source: sciencedirect.com/science/ar… Energy, Economic and Environmental Impacts of Cryptocurrency Mining: A Review (Jafari et al. 2026) Journal: Energy Conversion and Management: X Impact Factor 7.6 (top 4% of all journals worldwide)

The European Commission literally just dropped a research on how to collect more taxes without making you angry enough to leave. TLDR: higher wealth taxes, inheritance taxes + exit tax is coming

IBIT BTC holdings > Oct 27, 2025 high Back then: ~$120K Now: ~$78K

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Four-star military officer Admiral Samuel Paparo confirms the USA is running a Bitcoin node. "We have a node on the Bitcoin network right now. We're doing a number of operational tests to secure and protect networks using the Bitcoin protocol."

"the standardization of the value of the international money unit, would remove, where it would be used, the political roles of the "grand pardoners", the state authorities that can forgive the debts" John F Nash Jr., Ideal Money, 2002 buff.ly/2OEahlI

Maybe we have more imminent issues than quantum...

RT @omg21btc: @nic_carter still doesnt pass... CLAIM: Bitcoin must deploy a new post-quantum signature scheme in 2026 because quantum comp…

JUST IN: Lightning-first private VPN and E-SIM service LNVPN rebrands as nada nada ⚡️👀 > What Stays the Same? Everything > Anonymous eSIM in 200+ countries > Same infrastructure, same team, same pricing > Payment methods remain unchanged > Bitcoin Lightning gets you 5% off

NEW: 20 Sats notes appear, based on ecash 👀