The Lamu refinery is a white elephant in waiting. It needs 700,000 barrels of crude EVERY DAY. Where will that come from?
Do the maths. Turkana starts near 20,000 bpd and may reach 50,000. That is 3-7% of capacity, and the plan is still to export that crude raw. Leftovers cannot run a mega-refinery.
Uganda’s oil is already tied to EACOP and Tanga. Tanzania is building its own downstream plans, including a refinery. They won't reroute financed barrels because Nairobi announced a plant.
South Sudan already exports through Port Sudan. When the war ends, that route stays cheaper for most buyers in India, China, and Europe than the Kenyan corridor. Hope is not a contract.
So Lamu must import crude from outside Africa at high cost while we export our own. That is not energy security. That is a high-cost gamble.
And Kenyan taxes, land, and political cover are the backstop. If it fails to repay itself, we pay using our taxes. That is why “stop advising a billionaire” is empty. He can walk away. Taxpayers cannot.
But also important, this government has a record of putting Kenyans last. Affordable housing. SHA. The Adani JKIA deal we had to stop. A few capture the upside. The public inherits the risk.
If this is different, publish the 20-year contracted barrels. Until then, I will say Kenyans are being asked to underwrite an expensive asset that can sit idle- and we Kenyans will carry the cost. Bkmk