Actually I think the floor on this is much lower than initially assumed
25% of 2Q revs in SCAs, which annualized x 5 years should be $207B, but RPO is only $100B. That’s bc RPO is based on floor price.
I estimate floor price may therefore be -50% below 2Q levels for these deals.
Pretty good for the customers who locked these in ($NVDA & CSPs): upside price capped, volume secured, and in downturn you can still see cost fall -50%.
$MU says SCA margins still “well above” prior cycle peaks at floor price. If prices fell 50%, GM would go from ~89% to the mid-70s (counter intuitive but that’s the math).
If headline was 40% of revenue was abt to have price caps, and still -50% price downside, stock reaction prob a little less favorable.
I think good deals for the clouds given the environment. In absolute sense still very good deal for
$MU too, but I recant my prior statement abt almost impossible for earnings to decline. They absolutely could w/ so much room on the price floor (I had assumed a narrower band).