"Fish where the fish are.. If the fishing is really lousy where you are you should probably look for another place to fish." - Charlie Munger (2020 DJCO meeting

The Great Midwest
Today's $LULU marketing e-mail. NGMI if still doing camping tents (sometime with pleats)
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OVERHEARD MANY TIMES: "We can't bottom until @GavinSBaker stops doing podcasts"
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If AI isn’t a bubble, you’ll lose your job. If AI is a bubble, you’ll lose your savings. Most likely, AI is currently in a financial bubble but technologically still on an exponential improvement curve, so you’ll first lose your savings and then lose your job. Good luck.
JUST IN: Michael Burry predicts a massive AI crash is coming
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Think @edzitron would have greater impact if more people believed he was really British, which I think might require a bowler hat & an umbrella, or a 3-piece suit, or maybe a suit of armor?
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Hearing a rumor that Jamie Lee Curtis’ hedge fund was liquidated. Can’t confirm.
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Pure Dunning-Kruger or just very different use of word ‘Complex’ (instructional play-book complexity vs complexity of perfect physical contact in 3D space)? 2 hand contact vs 1 foot contact is just total apples and oranges stuff..
The idea that soccer is more complex than football is just comically inaccurate. In football, you see teams with inferior talent regularly win games because they have better schemes and smarter playcallers. That almost never happens in soccer, and when it does the scheme is almost always "park the bus and hope to steal a set-piece goal or win on penalties."
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A suspiciously favorable administrative decision means we're a real soccer country now.
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HAPPY 4TH JULY AMERICA! 🦅🇺🇸
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While profit margins are at all-time highs, the rise is due solely to the technology sector. For the rest of the economy, profit margins remain fairly stable. @thedailyshot
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After some math, I think the $MU SCAs work out to floor prices ~50% lower than 2Q levels based on their RPO and comments on floor margins. That frames the deals a bit better for the big customers - they cap pricing, secure supply, but can still see costs fall ~50% in a downturn. Maybe a little less bullish for $MU than first glance. Better for $NVDA (and whichever 3 of $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT $META $AAPL) I’ll retract my initial statement that it’s almost impossible to see FCF fall from 26 levels. There doesn’t appear to be contractual minimum volume growth, and price could fall -50% for SCAs. So earnings could still get smoked in a downturn. While still remaining nicely profitable.
Replying to @evrgn11112231
Actually I think the floor on this is much lower than initially assumed 25% of 2Q revs in SCAs, which annualized x 5 years should be $207B, but RPO is only $100B. That’s bc RPO is based on floor price. I estimate floor price may therefore be -50% below 2Q levels for these deals. Pretty good for the customers who locked these in ($NVDA & CSPs): upside price capped, volume secured, and in downturn you can still see cost fall -50%. $MU says SCA margins still “well above” prior cycle peaks at floor price. If prices fell 50%, GM would go from ~89% to the mid-70s (counter intuitive but that’s the math). If headline was 40% of revenue was abt to have price caps, and still -50% price downside, stock reaction prob a little less favorable. I think good deals for the clouds given the environment. In absolute sense still very good deal for $MU too, but I recant my prior statement abt almost impossible for earnings to decline. They absolutely could w/ so much room on the price floor (I had assumed a narrower band).
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Almost there...
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what a fantastic chart from @kevinmuir showing how unusual this earnings season has been
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13.1% of credit card balances in the US are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest since 2011. 10.3% of student loan balances are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest since 2020. 5.6% of auto loan balances are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest level on record.
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Have seen different estimates for 'passive vs active.' This one feels correct.
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Keir Starmer has announced that all schools in England will be ordered to ban smartphones after the prime minister bowed to pressure from the Conservative Party, teachers and parents. ft.trib.al/lTyCK5M
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I say this line by Cormac McCarthy in my head at least twice a week
What’s a line from something you’ve read that you find yourself repeating in your head every now and then?
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Multibagger pitch on $XPEL from @AltaFoxCapital - High quality share gainer in a secularly growing mkt - 3 years of heavy investment → earnings inflection ahead - EBIT margins set to 2x by FY28 - 100% upside on conservative EPS forecast - 250% if mgmt hits its targets
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1/ Druckenmiller's first mentor, Speros Drelles, would often tell him that "60 million Frenchman can't be wrong." Here's a thread on what that means and how to know when you should listen to or ignore the "Frenchman" (market)...
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