The polls ar predicting ahistorical results. These same polls were absolutely atrocious in the primaries. You figure it out.

This is not random error. The university credentialed are oversampled, the working class undersampled and a substantial number of Republicans simply refuse to participate.

Guy that believes that the errors will basically cancel each other out and you’ll get a healthy D+9.5-10.5 margin nationally like most polls suggest

"then a bunch of reasons why they might be too bearish on Ds" Such as? When's the last midterm or GE where polls overstated R performance?

The Blue Wave will fizzle. The hypothesis that polls aren't reaching rurals has merit. Rural folk are going bankrupt, and they're losing their farms, but they'll crawl over broken glass to vote Red so long as Trump keeps working to Make America White Again. Believe it.

I don’t see many reasons why they might be too bearish for Dems lol It sounds like pollsters have leaned into the fact that they don’t suffer consequences for repeatedly being wrong and wildly biased for Dems Mostly because aggregators shrug and “throw it in the average”

What are reasons they are too bearish on Ds?

You could be right, but the Ohio YouGov poll has unweighted recall sample of Kamala +14.5%

How many rural Texans do you really think have participated in a poll ??

@grok when was the last time a poll or even the avg of polls missed on a single senate race in the direction of the Republican? That is to say the R candidate polled higher than the Dem and lost the election ? By say 5 pts

“Too bearish on Dems” they’re releasing +8 slop polls in Kansas and Iowa. Stop this, you’re way too smart to act this stupid.

Stop being nuanced and reasonable and just tell me the polls say exactly what I want to have happen.

Trump has been running as a rough and tumble asshole businessman who can fix the economy for 10+ years. Then he kneecapped the economy with an unneeded war. He's never been in this position.

Polls are bullshit. They don’t capture the actual sample anymore. DO NOT TRUST POLLS!!!

1. Generic D candidates ran +dd ahead of Trump in 2025/6 special elections (mostly before Iran war started) 2. Trump polling 6ppts below where he was in 2018 3. Trump 2 has been a fiasco for farm states (input costs up bc of Iran war, exports counter tariffed) Biblical disaster incoming for GOP

I think some Democratic supporters are counting every lead, no matter how small, as a win. Get out the vote efforts may get some candidates over the line. The big unknown is who the undecideds have voted for in the past and whether when the moment comes, will they move?

Sometimes, the polls are pretty close and especially the state polls.

Basically, we’ve reached the point where there is still a month until the election and not a lot new to say before we see actual outcomes

IPEV is up 250% in Cuyahoga County. That's a empirical observation and not a normative one.

I disagree the polls are too bearish on Dems. Literally everything has fallen in line for them.

So when should we determine a poll error to be a poll error? Collins in 2020 is a classic poll error. Everyone showed her losing handily. But if a race shows a 0-3 point lead consistently between two candidates (maybe one leads in 4 polls and the other 2) it’s a MoE result

Wait — are you seriously insinuating that a pre-game Pointspread doesn’t perfectly predict what the final score will ultimately be!?!? But in spite of that, it’s still a useful indicator of who’s likely to win, and by how much?? Madness!!!!

Yea cause you don’t know shit. That’s why you post this cope.