I think probably 3 or 4, but if I God forbid went into a coma and woke up a week after Election Day and it was eight, I wouldn't be shocked, and if I went into a coma and woke up and it was one, I wouldn't be shocked. And a year from now everyone will act like it was *obvious*
And this time is not only the Midwest but also Alaska and Collins in Maine. A pollster's nightmare. Turns out Texas is the easiest race to poll :) Probably I'd bet on a 4 seats dem gain if forced to, but who knows.