I was just reading a newsletter from
@semafor Africa, and this text caught my attention.
"Extreme weather events triggered by a particularly powerful El Niño weather pattern could cost African economies $10 billion to $20 billion and spark mass migration, the African Development Bank’s top climate expert said. Extreme droughts and flooding threaten food and water security, while government finances and banking are under threat if disasters damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to repay loans. Food shortages could also prompt huge numbers of people to flee their homes."
These observations are at the heart of what I continue to be more concerned about. Simply, I am more worried about the pressures the expected El Niño drought will place on the broader African continent than on South Africa.
Sure, we will face challenges in South Africa. But we are better placed because of our ample grain supplies in the 2025-26 season, which will be a key buffer going into next year, as well as the good soil moisture ahead of the next planting season. We also have better water levels in the dams to support fruit and vegetable production.
Still, this is not to minimise the issue for the South African farming community. Indeed, the farmers and communities will feel some strain. But I don’t think the challenge for South Africa will be as severe as the 2025-26 drought period, and for the greater African continent.