🕯CPI today at 12:30 UTC. Expected: 3.4%. The previous three CPI releases were followed by $BTC rallies of 10%, 7%, and 31%. But this time the setup is different: markets are already pricing a significant probability of another Fed hike. 🌃 The overnight backdrop: Brent briefly approached $110 and U.S. diesel hit $6, putting energy back at the center of the inflation story. 🏦 The Fed squeeze: If inflation is being driven by an energy supply shock rather than demand, higher rates can cool the economy, but they can’t produce more oil or fix disrupted supply routes. And that makes today’s CPI only part of the story 👀 All eyes will be on the Fed’s September 16 decision and how policymakers respond if inflation remains elevated while the underlying pressure is coming from energy and supply. The CPI number matters. The Fed’s interpretation of it may matter even more. What do you think?