Frank McCoubrey's selection as the DUP's West Belfast Assembly candidate came as no surprise, but what was more interesting was his appeal, reported by Suzanne Breen, for TUV deputy leader Ron McDowell not to stand against him, which raises the fairly obvious question of why he is so concerned about having another unionist in the race.
West Belfast isn't unique in this respect. The DUP already holds the sole unionist representation in Foyle, West Tyrone, Mid Ulster and Newry & Armagh, yet we don't hear the same demands for other unionists to clear the field in those constituencies.
Nor does the West Belfast arithmetic justify the nervousness. The combined DUP, TUV and UUP vote at the 2024 Westminster election was around 17%, which, if repeated at an Assembly election, would be more than a quota. With good transfers between unionist candidates, there is every prospect of electing a unionist with votes to spare.
Indeed, I would argue that Julie Middleton faces a tougher battle to retain the DUP's position in Foyle than Frank McCoubrey, or another unionist candidate, faces in West Belfast, yet there doesn't appear to be the same clamour for everybody else to clear the field for her. So why should West Belfast be treated differently, and why is Frank particularly concerned about Ron McDowell?
I suspect ego has something to do with it, because politics attracts strong personalities and few people who have spent years establishing themselves in their own patch particularly relish somebody else coming close. Another unionist candidate doesn't necessarily prevent unionist representation, but what it does prevent is Frank having virtually the entire unionist electorate to himself. Instead of sailing towards a quota, he might have to compete for first preferences and then depend upon transfers later in the count.
That gets to what I think is the weakness in Frank's approach. He doesn't appear confident enough simply to sell himself as the best candidate on ability, record and ideas, but instead appears to be selling himself as the dominant candidate, the established figure around whom everybody else should fall into line.
That is also where I think the argument becomes manipulative, because rather than simply persuading voters that he is a better candidate than Ron McDowell, it risks changing the question in their minds from, "Which candidate do I prefer?" to, "Will I damage unionism if I don't vote for Frank?" Instead of asking voters to judge him entirely on his merits, it introduces the fear that choosing somebody else could have consequences for unionist representation.
That is quite a powerful seed to plant in the minds of voters, particularly when STV allows them to rank Frank, Ron and any other unionist candidates in whatever order they choose. A first preference for another unionist doesn't prevent somebody transferring to Frank afterwards, just as a Frank voter can transfer to another unionist if Frank is eliminated or has a surplus.
It also leaves another question unanswered. If unionist competition is genuinely the problem, why single out the TUV and Ron McDowell rather than make precisely the same appeal to every other unionist party that might contest West Belfast?
In some respects, Frank's argument feels like a diet version of Danny Kennedy's remarks, in which the great electoral offence appears to be that another political party has the audacity to stand, compete and perhaps even win. Elections don't exist to protect established politicians from competition, and unionism does not own a seat simply by virtue of being unionism.
Frank should have enough confidence in his own abilities and record to make the case for himself without making voters fearful of the consequences of choosing somebody else. Let Frank make his case, let other unionists make theirs, let unionist voters choose whichever candidate they actually prefer and then transfer accordingly, because ultimately it should be the electorate that decides.