Data scientist โ MS in CS, stats, biochemistry โ Current Econ MS student โ ๐บ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฌ๐ง Policy-centered tweets about tech, bio, urbanism, economics, & politics
Colorado
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We're bringing out the old classics! (Except this time, it's completely fake AI!)
A new caravan of several hundred migrants from Honduras is currently moving through Guatemala toward Mexicoโaiming to reach the U.S. southern border by the upcoming midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
Meanwhile, an estimated 60,000 migrants remain stalled in transit hubs across southern Mexico, facing backlog delays but planning to head north.
Border security advocates and political analysts point out that the timing of this movement is closely tied to the U.S. election cycle.
The prevailing argument is that a Democratic victory in November could result in a shift toward relaxed border enforcement policiesโcreating a perceived opening for illegal entry.
From this perspective, the outcome of the midterms is framed as a critical factor for the future of border controlโwith commentators emphasizing that voter turnout on November 3rd is directly tied to safeguarding national security.
Itโs crucial that we turnout and voteโpreventing a collapse of border enforcement systems.
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Behold, the best book series ever written by this criterion.
Breaking: Times critics think that shows enjoyed by college-educated Americans rock. Meanwhile, shows like NCIS, the Big Bang Theory, and Desparate Housewives drew over 20x as many viewers as an average Breaking Bad series. The Joe Millionaire finale drew 40x as many viewers.
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Hunter๐๐๐ retweeted
Feel itโs worth pointing out that the sample sizes for these age 18-29 crosstabs in these three states are:
Maine:
n=32
Margin of error: ยฑ17.3 percentage points
New Hampshire:
n=33
Margin of error: ยฑ17.1 percentage points
Michigan:
n=50
Margin of error: ยฑ13.9 percentage points
NYT/Siena โ Net fav, ages 18โ29
Michigan
๐ข Abdul El-Sayed +80
๐ค Mike Rogers โ44
โ
Pennsylvania
๐ข Josh Shapiro +41
โ
New Hampshire
๐ข John Sununu +5
๐ค Chris Pappas โ35
โ
Maine
๐ก Susan Collins โ2
๐ค Troy Jackson โ26
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Hunter๐๐๐ retweeted
It seems pretty clear that the Platner-verse progressives saw one (1) NYT poll and decided to throw Troy Jackson under the bus by rebranding him as an establishment puppet based on nothing so they don't have to claim his loss, which they see as inevitable. Real backstabby stuff!
the NYT reports this morning that Abdul is polling well while Troy Jackson in Maine is not. This shows precisely what happens when the DC consultant class is allowed to come in and wreck a campaign:
currentaffairs.org/news/the-โฆ
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Seems like this is probably the final word.
MO will use its 6R-2D map this year, and it will ultimately be up to the voters whether to use the 7R-1D in 2028 and beyond.
BREAKING: The Supreme Court stayed lower court orders requiring Missouri to use its 2025 congressional map in November, allowing the state to continue using its 2022 map. The Court cited its earlier stay and concerns about changing election rules after voting has begun.
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I would say this is probably my gubernatorial map at the moment.
Winning either OH or GA would be huge for Dems. They're both very large states, and either win would give Democrats a foothold in state government and break an R trifecta.
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Bottoms losing would be a remarkable stain on what could otherwise be a great set of gubernatorial elections.
In 2018, GA was still notably to the right of the nation. But now it's basically dead even (R+0.72 in 2024). Dems should win it in this environment.
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Do we expect any attorney general positions to flip this year?
Georgia might theoretically, but downballot lag + Jackson's strong campaign could prevent it. WI/MI/NV/AZ are probably potential flips, but it's a very blue year. Ellison in MN would be in trouble in a redder year.
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Hunter๐๐๐ retweeted
A new NBER paper finds that raising California's property tax to Texas's level would cut housing prices by 12% and shift homeownership toward younger buyers.
Across the US, ending the "step-up" tax break on inherited homes could open up up to 2 million homes held by seniors.
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I lowkey don't understand why everyone is spending so massively on Ohio when it's the two-year term.
I mean, just based on that alone, it's clearly objectively the least valuable competitive seat on offer?
Chuck Schumer's SMP-affiliated PACs drop $23.65 million on 8 races (more on 2 separate filings):
$8.55M #OHSen
$3.16M #MESen
$2.91M #MISen
$2.57M #IASen
$1.81M #NHSen
$1.75M #NCSen
$1.57M #AKSen
$1.32M #GASen
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Maine polls from today:
- NYT: R+3
- UNH: D+4
- UMass: D+5
I guess we'll see. Averages out to D+2, which would an underwhelming win, but a win. Still, Maine has definitely been a sore point for Dems this election.
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It's a bit dispiriting that even in this very blue environment, Dems still don't actually flip anything except the 7 swing states.
We're totally reliant on candidate quality in quite red states to unlock anything beyond 52D seats, ever (and even that requires an inside straight)
I think it's interesting to note that if you add up all of Split Ticket's house projections in Texas (which has no uncontested seats) you get an effectively even GCB, a 16 point shift from 2024.
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