Markets bottom on bad news and top on good news.
Because bottoms are about fear being fully priced in, tops are about greed.
*Proof - Last 10 Years:*
*Bottoms on bad news:*
- Feb 2016: China slowdown panic, Nifty 6,825 - 50% up in next 1 year
- Dec 2016: Demonetization low, Nifty 7,893 - Doubled in 18 months
- Mar 2020: Covid crash, Nifty 7,511 - Then 18,600 in 1.5 years
- Jun 2022: US Fed 75bps + Inflation fear, Nifty 15,183 - Then 18,800 in 6 months
- Mar 2023: Adani report + SVB Bank collapse, Nifty 17,113 - Then direct rally to 26,277 ATH
*Tops on good news:*
- Jan 2018: Budget + Earnings euphoria, Nifty 11,171 ATH - Then -12% in 2 months
- Sep 2019: Corporate tax cut cheer, Nifty 11,381 gap up - Top for next 4 months
- Oct 2021: Diwali ATH party, Nifty 18,604 - Then -18% correction
- Sep 2024: 26,277 life high, Superpower India headlines - Then -12.2% fall
Bad news at bottom feels like end of world.
Good news at top feels like it will never end.
No tips, only study.