We're premiering @PeterLBrandt's excellent presentation on lessons learned from 51 Years Trading piped.video/_G8QyHkvQ2Q

Amazing source for long-term asset returns. Free.

This is good stuff. The EW replication with lower fees produced an annual return of 6.9% with volatility of 8.6% for the full sample period. Most of the programs in the SG Trend index run at low volatility, although combining the individual programs in the index will also lower volatility because of diversification. With negative beta to the SP500 for the SG proxy, this makes for a strong rationale for combining it with an SP500 proxy using derivatives to obtain leverage. The combination would be expected to produce incremental returns compared to either alone without excessive volatility.

If you are going to err, do so in the side of sizing too small. Survival is job number 1.

This Week in Trend: The Leaderboard Turned Over. Most of the Trends Beneath It Held. Six of ten sectors changed sign this week, with Soft Commodities and Meats climbing from the bottom of the table while Energy, Metals and Bitcoin fell from the top. Yet the TTU Trend Barometer rose from 45 percent to 52 percent and the SG Trend Index posted a seventh consecutive weekly gain, as much of what looked like reversal turned out to be last week's interruptions ending and established trends resuming. atstradingsolutions.com/this… #TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #GlobalMacro #TTUTrendBarometer

The Trends Held The Trend Barometer climbed from 30 to 55 in August. TTU Trend Following gained 3.63%. The lesson: a big move is useful only if a trend follower is positioned to capture it and it lasts. atstradingsolutions.com/tren… #TrendFollowing #ManagedFutures #SystematicTrading #OutlierHunters

I don't think I have ever had an original trading realization. All I have done is make what I have learned from others work for me. - Kristjan Kullamagi @Qullamaggie 109/n lnk.to/marketwizardsnextgene…

Good management makes the tough calls.

Baskets’ performance

Do the right thing. Do the hard thing. Follow the rules. The Turtle Traders were losing money — but they were doing exactly what they were supposed to do. That's the lesson. Process over prediction. 🐢

I hardly ever promote my own guest appearances but this was a seriously fun discussion about the evolution of AI, current capabilities, rogue agents, the hyperscaler singularity, the future of work, and a positive vision for the future of the West.

@GestaltU is back on The Derivative with @AttainCap2 , talking AI doom, rogue agents, and why markets were the first AGI. Check it out: rcmalternatives.com/2026/09/…

RT @Covel: James Dailey of Dunn Capital: trendfollowing.com/2026/09/2…

Some of the most intelligent people I know have struggled the most as traders. It's why Warren Buffett says that if you have an IQ of 160, you should sell 30 points to someone else, because you won't need them to succeed in investing. In this week's Mastering the Trading Game newsletter (LinkedIn edition), Why Intelligent People Lose at Trading, I look at why Intellect is built for complicated problems: hard, but solvable. Whereas Markets are complex problems, more like a forest, the sea or a shuffled deck of cards. The challenge keeps changing, and no formula can solve it. What separates the best traders is rarely technical skill. It is mentality. And unlike intellect, mentality can be trained. linkedin.com/pulse/why-intel…

I am at the end of my career but feel bad for younger colleagues in academia. Many colleges are certain to close.

This should not be shocking. The 10-year Treasury yield was 15.84% within my lifetime. From 0.5% to 15.84% is a wide range and people tend to think what has happened recently will continue.

Sure to be a good read!

Bessent buying $6B of Treasuries to bring down the yield curve

Investing Quote of the Day: "Diversification looks inefficient during a bull market but is a source of strength during bear markets." - Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact)

Following up on an interesting post by @choffstein. I wondered how the combination of 50% NTSX (90% stock/60% bond, 150% exposure), 25% ASFYX (managed futures trend) and 25% GLD (gold) would have done since 2019 when NTSX was launched. The result was impressive: 14.26% CAGR with max drawdown of -7.30%, compared to 10.87% CAGR with -20.85% max drawdown for VBIAX.