The Berkshires of Bitcoin | True North Podcast | Ep. 80 Featuring @PunterJeff, @IIICapital, and @AdamBLiv. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:27 Episode Overview: Market close, balance sheets, Berkshire, derivatives 05:47 Meet the Crew: Adam Livingston joins Strive 11:29 Strategy $MSTR Balance Sheet: $BTC holdings, cash, converts, $STRC buybacks 15:23 Strive Balance Sheet: $ASST $SATA, dividend coverage, warrants, amplification 26:13 Risk Management and Volatility: Four-year cycle, drawdowns, credit flows 29:09 Traditional Credit vs. Digital Credit: Probability of outcomes, tail risk 40:35 Berkshire Hathaway Parallels: Capital, insurance float, risk taking 51:39 Strategy vs. Berkshire: Float growth, digital credit engine 58:55 Derivatives Market: ASST warrants, options open interest 1:04:26 MSTR and $IBIT Options: Open interest, hedging, liquidity 1:08:02 STRC Options Market: Puts, strikes, yield enhancement 1:15:01 Final Thoughts

“Where’s the death spiral?” @PunterJeff pushes back on the bear case for Strive and Strategy. Strive $ASST has no margin-call mechanism, while Strategy’s convertible debt is unsecured. Bond maturities are not the same as a forced liquidation. After months of pressure while Strategy raised capital, $MSTR has recently started to recover.

The 4-year Bitcoin cycle may be changing because the buyers are changing. @PunterJeff points to ETFs expanding distribution and Bitcoin credit products opening another pool of capital. As $BTC grows and more types of buyers enter the market, he expects volatility to keep compressing. That doesn’t mean the drawdowns disappear.

The Treasury is going to buyback a lot of Bonds. "We're going to have yield curve control." @tadtweets

Say NO to leaky capital

A liability without a maturity date changes how a company can invest. Adam connects Berkshire's float to Bitcoin perpetual preferreds: keep capital available, avoid becoming a forced seller, and preserve the ability to act when prices are low. Those are the parallels he sees between Buffett's approach and the Bitcoin treasury model. $BTC @AdamBLiv

$ASST’s option chain may help explain part of its short interest. @IIICapital points to roughly 211,000 contracts around the warrant expirations, equal to about 80% of the outstanding warrant shares. One possible explanation: warrant holders sell calls, and market makers hedge by shorting $ASST. If that’s already happened, some of the selling pressure may already be reflected in the market. The theory is plausible, but open interest alone can’t confirm who holds the positions.

Jeff Walton says Berkshire wouldn’t take his call unless the deal was worth at least $100 million. The size of its balance sheet gave it enormous pricing power and control over the terms. “You could get, like, really big, large-scale deals done, but they also took you to the cleaners in contractual terms.” - @PunterJeff

UPDATE True North is entering its next chapter. SEASON 3. Episode 80. We started True North to raise the standard of analysis around Bitcoin, Bitcoin related public companies, and the capital markets forming around the network. A source of truth in a noisy world. That mission matters more than ever as Bitcoin moves deeper into the frontier of capital markets. Bitcoin is no longer just a “number go up” conversation. It is about treasuries, balance sheets, credit, public securities, custody, cybersecurity, AI, digital risk, and the businesses being built around the network. It is broad. Real. And increasingly difficult to understand. There's also a real community being built around this fast growing world and ecosystem. So True North is becoming more focused. Going forward, True North will operate as the Investment Grade Bitcoin Platform: a research led platform for high-quality analysis of Bitcoin, treasury companies, capital structure, macro, market structure, custody, and the broader ecosystem. The format will be sharper. The distribution will be better. The research will be more deliberate. The guest roster will be more curated. The community development will be way more fun. The standard will be higher. 🟩👆 We will bring in outside investors, operators, analysts, and builders when they bring a differentiated perspective that makes the work better. We will also be hosting curated in-person events around the world. I’m grateful to the original True North contributors who helped build the first two seasons. Their time, conviction, perspective, and willingness to think seriously in public created the foundation for this next chapter and evolution. We will bring back original voices for reunions, major market moments, and entertaining conversations (When we need a rundown from @GrainofSaltSF on attacking the tail or "getting a Diet Coke"). The mission remains the same: Maintain the signal within the noise. Educate the masses. Build Community. Upgrade the world. True North will continue to be powered by Strive, and not intend to be monetized. We will continue to operate with high integrity, transparency and respect. The Wednesday show will premiere on YouTube, with the goal of maintaining the same weekly cadence. Each episode will then be published across X and streaming platforms with timestamps and formats built for easier consumption. The next chapter starts today. 🫡 PJ

The bond market is putting its pressure on the next 2 years, not the next 30. Roughly one month of change in yields: • 2 year: up 48 basis points • 5 year: up 41 • 10 year: up 23 • 30 year: up 1 Bear flattening. Short rates rising faster than long ones. Policy response = money printer. $BTC "That means increased liquidity. That means Bitcoin, historically, NGU." @AdamBLiv

BITCOIN DIMINISHING RETURNS? THINK AGAIN. I have never been more bullish on Bitcoin. No bad news is tanking the price. Absorbing demand in the worst conditions. We're goin' higher. FULL BREAKDOWN:

He probably bought 10 $BTC while walking home from a park. He started seeing Bitcoin as a commodity instead of a security. The panic that everyone else would figure it out within 30 minutes. "Of course you realize it takes people a long time to figure it out." - @BritishHodl

The U.S. dollar comes before the average person. @BritishHodl Control of the money printer is why he dismisses fears about higher interest rates. "We're talking about the survival of the United States dollar here." - @BritishHodl $BTC

No Stream this week due to busy schedules. See you next week True North.

Himes vs Bessent on the $10B buyback. Rep. Himes pressed Treasury Secretary Bessent on 10-year buybacks that were followed by a higher 10-year yield. - About $10 billion spent - 4.8% on the 10-year when the operation started - 5.04% today, a 20-year high - 20 basis point rise "You can ask me a question. You can't tell me how to answer it."

Brian Harrington says Bitcoin $BTC is starting to replace the S&P 500 as the benchmark for growth. The index has too much dead weight, while AI is making the gap between strong and weak companies even wider. For a company to earn investor capital, the choice becomes simpler: grow faster than the benchmark or return cash through dividends. “Bitcoin is becoming the new standard growth index of the world.” - @BrainHarrington