This is not a bear market rally.
We can see here, very clearly, where I have marked on the chart, that over the last 10 years...
Every time the 1D RSI has pushed over 85, it has always been either:
1. The start of a very large uptrend
2. Close to the very top of that uptrend
Based on 100% of Bitcoins lifetime data, this kind of RSI reading is showing us that this is the start of a new upwards trend
Never in Bitcoins history has it ever tagged 85+ in a bear market.
Even when Bitcoin was worth $10 in 2011 there was not a 1D RSI reading of 85+ in a bear market.
Of course, this could become the first ever time...
But I doubt it.
This is looking like vertical accumulation.
When the price is finally ready for higher, it always has certain characteristics.
And time is moving on here with this move, we're seeing the typical behaviour unfold.
1. Very strong impulsive move that slams the 1D RSI into overbought
2. Lockout rally that moves far and doesn't give entries
3. Vertical accumulation as the price works through resistances without big dips
4. Continuation higher as everyone expects it to drop again
You can get a real feel for the genuine strength of a move just by analysing the RSI.
And, interestingly enough, our last vertical accumulation was November 2024, as pictured.
Which was also the last time the 1D RSI hit 85.
For reference, the 1D RSI doesn't hit that kind of level in a bear market rally.