Surgeon General of prediction market Twitter. Too liberal for the Deep South, too conservative for the PNW.
Seattle, WA
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So many tankers in the strait that they look like taxis in Manhattan, ship captains just leaning on their horns trying to get out in time to sell before the price crashes to zero from oversupply and we cap all the wells for 100 years
🚨 NEARLY 40 MILLION BARRELS of oil just passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 48 hours—back to pre-war levels!
Up to 60 tankers transited under U.S. military protection. Trump, Hegseth, and Bessent are securing our supply lines and bringing down gas prices.
America First wins again! 🇺🇸🔥
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From the people who brought you the timeless election myth of “Blexas”, get ready for the equally nonexistent “Blorida”
Change Research poll | 9/25-9/27 LV
Florida statewide races 2026
Florida Governor
🟦David Jolly 48%
🟥Byron Donalds 46%
——
US Senate
🟥Ashley Moody 48% (incumbent)
🟦Angie Nixon 47%
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After World War III the last things left on earth will be the roaches, the bacteria down by those undersea thermal vents, and Susan Collins’ seat in Maine
NYTimes / @SienaResearch Poll in Maine: Collins 49%, Jackson 46%.
Traders: Democrats 64¢ to flip the seat.
Most September polls had @TroyJackson207 ahead. The market is sticking with them.
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The dwindling chance of a Republican House (<10%) is not actually due to the possibility they’d win if the elections were held today (that’s much lower), it’s almost entirely remaining hope that oil prices and Iran COULD be fixed in time (they can’t).
predictit.org/markets/detail…
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Basically the opposite strategy from what PredictIt did for Trump vs Hillary to skirt the max bet rules at the time: Will Donald Trump win the 2016 presidential election? Will the Republican candidate win? Will the winner be a woman?
Enabling joint probabilities in prediction markets, each with YES/NO and AND/OR options, leads to an exploding number of markets, most of which would have little liquidity.
Liquidity can be provided on all combinations of YES/NO and AND/OR between any two markets by quoting only 1 additional market: a covariance market.
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Only somewhat related (and inappropriate) question but are gambling apps segregated the way Venmo/CashApp/Zelle are?
Unknowingly wore my Kalshi hoodie to the gym this morning and an older black gentleman compared the damage Kalshi is doing to young black men to the KKK and so I think I might have to keep this one in my closet going forward because I don’t need to have that convo again
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PredictIt saw Kalshi getting beaten up and decided it was the perfect time to strike
5% → 0%
The PredictIt withdrawal fee is gone. Cash out by ACH or check for free.
Check it out at: predictit.org
#thepeoplespredictionmarket #midterms2026
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Not exactly a big moneymaker as a bet but I strongly feel Riemann and P=NP will be the last two to go, and I agree Hodge is highly likely to be the next to fall.
kalshi.com/markets/kxmillenn…
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Trump’s family has directly invested in both Kalshi and Polymarket, I wouldn’t get my hopes up too high about the CFTC doing anything; but these episodes add to the extremely low-hanging fruit being left to the next administration. The harvest of PR points will be bountiful.
SCOOP with @ByKLong @ceostroff:
- The CFTC is examining unusual Kalshi trades with near-identical sizes that now total over $5B
- Prop-trading firms Jump Trading (a Kalshi shareholder) and Wintermute were two of the parties involved in the transactions
We analyzed months of Kalshi data. The trades, all clustered near $5,500, began in late August (see chart).
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I totally agree, he took the words right out of my mouth… unless we’re all doing this as a bit, in which case don’t worry I’m in on it too guys it’s just for the lols… this isn’t a bit right?
I’m confused by this statement. None of those platforms offer sports wagering. Those companies are all financial instruments allowing users to trade event contracts amongst peers.
These markets are federally regulated by the CFTC, not the Missouri attorney general.
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The holy trinity of bonds right now is this one below (Pahlavi not entering Iran), the US military instituting a draft, and the US charging fees for passage through the strait. (Last two only on Polymarket I believe)
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Reza Pahlavi will not visit Iran this year. You can currently make over a 20% APR on this on kalshi, not counting the 3.5% interest they pay. Full disclosure: i'm trying to sell out to free up cash, but I absolutely stand by the bond status. (Obv, not financial advice & do your own research!)
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The Needle walked so the Swingometer could run
🚨 NEW: The 2026 Swingometer is here, with a starting estimate of 224-211 D in the House. Read more and get access to the interactive version. patrickruffini.com/p/introdu…
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Once the democrats take congress back the party is over, there’s no way they’re gonna tolerate any more of this shit show
Kalshi is about to lose zillions over this Michigan game. Cant change settlements per CFTC rules and they graded Western as a win. Going to have to manually pay all Michigan traders and not take away from Western traders
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