The Budget Lab is a non-partisan policy research center dedicated to providing in-depth analysis of federal proposals for the American economy.
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The Budget Lab retweeted
A common adage in Washington is that Congress doesn’t act until there’s a crisis. When it comes to the federal debt, that wasn’t always true, according to @The_Budget_Lab
politico.com/newsletters/mor…
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The Budget Lab retweeted
Even as the debt passes $40T, policymakers have floated $1.2T of new checks, disregarding the deficit. In a new @The_Budget_Lab tracker, we show that Congress once cut back when debt forecasts rose, but for the last 20 years it mostly hasn't. (1/6) budgetlab.yale.edu/research/…
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Ryan Nunn talks with @ChristineRomans @NBCNews about treasury yields, inflation, and the U.S economy
piped.video/watch?v=cNS9He48…
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Register for the @The_Budget_Lab webinar, "What AI Could Mean for Fiscal Policy" on Wed. Sept. 30, 12:00pm EDT. yale.zoom.us/webinar/registe…
AI has the potential to reshape our economy, changing how work is done and income is distributed. Join us for a wide-ranging conversation with Douglas Elmendorf, Professor of Public Policy, @HarvardKS, and Ryan Nunn, Director of Research, The Budget Lab, moderated by @axios Markets Correspondent @EmilyRPeck
@john_iselin, Associate Director of Economic Analysis at The Budget Lab, will present recent research on how AI-driven growth would affect federal revenues.
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The Budget Lab retweeted
The current U.S. tax system is “really good at taxing ordinary wage earners and really bad at taxing people who accumulate wealth,” says @NatashaRSarin, a professor of law and cofounder of the @The_Budget_Lab at Yale, in conversation with The Spillover host Rebecca Patterson. Sarin and Patterson discuss achieving a “fit for purpose” tax system through a series of practical, tried-and-true tax instruments, rather than radical change that might be rejected by the U.S. legal system.
Watch the full episode of The Spillover, hosted by @scmallaby and Rebecca Patterson, here or wherever you get your podcasts: piped.video/fNkH_o7qGYs?si=JY2n…
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The Budget Lab retweeted
My latest video with @nytopinion -- Tennis Shouldn't Be This Expensive
Watch here:
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Jobs Day commentary from Ryan Nunn, Director of Research @The_Budget_Lab: Put simply, this is a strong jobs report. Unemployment stayed about flat at 4.14%, which is low by any historical standard. August employment was up 162,000, which is unambiguously strong these days - well above the breakeven level (budgetlab.yale.edu/research/….) Revisions to the last two months (not to be confused with the preliminary benchmark revision budgetlab.yale.edu/research/…) were positive, at +55k.
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A big chunk of the payroll growth in August was leisure and hospitality (+62k), which rebounded after losses during the prior two months. Government employment also regained some of its previous losses.
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One last thing to note is that the number of so-called permanent job losers remains about 250k below its peak from early this year. This subset of the unemployed who lost their jobs involuntarily (and don't expect to be recalled) is often worth watching, and it's sending a strong signal in 2026.
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The Budget Lab retweeted
Great to talk with @HorsleyScott on a not-great development: the hundreds of billions that an (even more) underfunded, understaffed IRS stands to lose in coming years.
Billions of dollars in taxes went uncollected last year after the IRS slashed its auditing staff. npr.org/2026/09/02/nx-s1-595…
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The Budget Lab retweeted
IRS lost 27% of its exam staff from FY 2024-FY 2025
Revenue decreased 25%
An obvious fact: If you get rid of auditors, you raise less money from audits.
Winners are tax cheats, losers are those who are playing by the rules
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The Budget Lab retweeted
In today's @nytopinion, I offer some unsolicited economics advice for the US Open: charge less and pay players more.
(Also, everyone should tune in for @stanwawrinka and @MattBerrettini this afternoon, but that advice didn't make the piece.)
Read here: nytimes.com/2026/08/31/opini…
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U.S. tariffs will cost the typical American household more than $1,000 per year, the non-partisan Yale Budget Lab found in an estimate released on Tuesday. abcnews.link/XYFNTOq
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@The_Budget_Lab tariff tracker and the cost for U.S. households featured on @ABC. Watch here: piped.video/watch?v=gC5rCFIR…
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Read more here: abcnews.com/Business/tariffs…
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Many of us pay close attention to the new jobs numbers each month. But the initial estimate isn't the end of the story: the BLS routinely uses new and better data to keep improving its estimates. This is good for balancing timeliness and accuracy, though it can be a little confusing in practice, and is often misinterpreted. When we learn about the annual benchmark revision this Friday, it will be important to understand what the new information does and doesn't mean.
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A key thing to understand about the annual revision is that it's backward-looking, making use of precise (but somewhat out-of-date) unemployment insurance records. The first step in the process will be to revise the March 2026 employment level and smooth that revision through the prior year of data. On its face, this doesn't have a whole lot to do with how the labor market is faring in the second half of 2026.
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