Chief Economist @krakenfx. ๐Ÿ’ฐ Former L/S Special Sits Analyst @ Moore Capital. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Amateur astronomer. ๐Ÿ”ญ Thoughts are mine. Vires in Numeris. #Bitcoin #crypto

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๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐Ÿ’ฐ $1,658 billion ๐—–๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐Ÿ’Ž โ‚ฟ20.100 million (95.72% of max) ๐—”๐—ป๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ณ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐Ÿ’ธ +0.82% ๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜† โ›๏ธ +โ‚ฟ450 ($37.1 million) #SoundMoneyMonday
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth ๐Ÿ’ retweeted
bitcoin:native is in the sweet spot of its four-year cycle but this one looks very different from prior cycles. @ThomasPerfumo of @krakenfx tells @RemyBlaireNews the drawdown is only 35% versus 75-85% historically, and Bitcoin ETF flows remaining at 91% of their all-time high suggest the cycle pattern should change dramatically going forward.
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth ๐Ÿ’ retweeted
Joining @RemyBlaireNews this morning: - @SteveKalayjian (SK Trading) - โ @ThomasPerfumo (@krakenfx) - โ @Eric_Criscuolo (@NYSE) - @najkidwai (@C1_Fund) Live from the Big Board.
S&P 500 Futures Bounce After Warsh Punts on Rate Signal, Hike Odds Slide | Market Movers x.com/i/broadcasts/1kKzDPXmRโ€ฆ
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth ๐Ÿ’ retweeted
$BTC is rewriting the cycle playbook One year since its $125K ATH, Bitcoinโ€™s drawdown remains shallower than in previous cycles But macro correlations are shifting @ThomasPerfumo connects the dots in this weekโ€™s Macro Minute โ†“
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๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐Ÿ’ฐ $1,680 billion ๐—–๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐Ÿ’Ž โ‚ฟ20.097 million (95.70% of max) ๐—”๐—ป๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ณ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐Ÿ’ธ +0.82% ๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜† โ›๏ธ +โ‚ฟ450 ($37.6 million) #SoundMoneyMonday
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth ๐Ÿ’ retweeted
$BTC gained 43% in Q3 while long-term yields climbed to generational highs At the same time, Bitcoin volatility remains unusually muted @ThomasPerfumo explains why that combination is worth watching Macro Minute โ†“
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๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐Ÿ’ฐ $1,730 billion ๐—–๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐Ÿ’Ž โ‚ฟ20.094 million (95.68% of max) ๐—”๐—ป๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ณ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐Ÿ’ธ +0.82% ๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜† โ›๏ธ +โ‚ฟ450 ($38.7 million) #SoundMoneyMonday
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This hasn't made rounds yet to my knowledge, but the Chairman Atkins at the @SECGov just published a statement including proposals that expand qualification criteria for accreditation. This is massively positive for future retail participation in earlier stage investment opportunities. Perhaps the most impactful is the proposal for FINRA to develop an exam that presumably anyone can sit in for, instead of the series license exams for which you often require sponsorship. New proposed qualifications include: (1) Passing an examination to be developed by FINRA; (2) Holding a license as a U.S. certified public accountant; (3) Holding a charter as a Chartered Financial Analyst; (4) Holding a certification as a Certified Financial Planner in the United States; (5) Holding a FINRA Investment Banking Representative license, and (6) Holding a FINRA Research Analyst license. sec.gov/newsroom/speeches-stโ€ฆ
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth ๐Ÿ’ retweeted
Bitcoin momentum is picking up. DeFi is breaking out. But macro risks remain. With energy markets and rate expectations in focus, all eyes turn to PCE. @ThomasPerfumo has the charts. Macro Minute โ†“
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๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐Ÿ’ฐ $1,676 billion ๐—–๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐Ÿ’Ž โ‚ฟ20.091 million (95.67% of max) ๐—”๐—ป๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ณ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐Ÿ’ธ +0.82% ๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜† โ›๏ธ +โ‚ฟ450 ($37.5 million) #SoundMoneyMonday
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๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐Ÿ’ฐ $1,678 billion ๐—–๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐Ÿ’Ž โ‚ฟ20.087 million (95.65% of max) ๐—”๐—ป๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ณ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐Ÿ’ธ +0.82% ๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜† โ›๏ธ +โ‚ฟ450 ($37.6 million) #SoundMoneyMonday
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๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐Ÿ’ฐ $1,559 billion ๐—–๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐Ÿ’Ž โ‚ฟ20.084 million (95.64% of max) ๐—”๐—ป๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ณ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐Ÿ’ธ +0.82% ๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜† โ›๏ธ +โ‚ฟ450 ($34.9 million) #SoundMoneyMonday
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth ๐Ÿ’ retweeted
At every step of the way during the Clarity Act negotiations, the White House and Senate Republicans have been responsive to Democratsโ€™ stated policy objectives. After more than a yearโ€™s worth of negotiations, itโ€™s time to pass this bipartisan bill.
After a year of intense daily bipartisan negotiations, this bill is ready. Here is the final text. President Trump voluntarily agreed to new ethics provisions holding every federally elected official, judge, and their spouses to some of the toughest ethics restrictions in U.S. history. This new text includes more than 120 of Democrats' demands.ย A no vote on Tuesday means opposing real ethics reforms on politicians' personal investments, handing American leadership in digital assets to our foreign competitors, and leaving Americans with zero protections in the digital asset markets. Democrats got what they wanted; now they need to take yes for an answer. Here's the latest: lummis.senate.gov/press-releโ€ฆ
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth ๐Ÿ’ retweeted
๐ŸšจNEWS: Senate Republicans have released new Clarity Act text featuring a revised ethics proposal agreed to by President Trump. The text also contains changes to the sections on the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), stablecoin yield, and the so-called โ€œAg title.โ€ Republicans are calling it their โ€œlast, best and finalโ€ offer to Democrats ahead of Tuesdayโ€™s cloture vote. Some high-level details.๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿผ On BRCA: The provision has been narrowed to the Bank Secrecy Act and civil enforcement. Specific language extending its protections to criminal cases, including prosecutions under Section 1960, has been removed. On ethics: Trump has agreed to what a GOP aide describes as โ€œ80%โ€ of the Tillis-Gallego ethics proposal including to either divest โ€œsubstantialโ€ crypto-related financial interests or place them in a blind trust. It would also allow a role for state attorneys general to enforce ethics provisions, something which the White House had previously balked at. On yield: Added โ€œcircuit breakerโ€ language (floated by Tillis in July) that would effectively act as a backstop by allowing federal regulators to intervene if there was evidence of widespread deposit flight from community banks to stablecoins. The federal regulator that will be the arbiter of this: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. On Ag: The updated text adds tighter guardrails around vertical integration, including affiliate trading and conflicts of interest involving digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers. It also clarifies that state consumer protection laws still apply and that developer protections do not create exemptions from derivatives laws or impact prediction markets. More to come in the @CryptoAmerica_ newsletter tomorrow AM.
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth ๐Ÿ’ retweeted
Nasdaq Ventures is investing $100M in Payward as we advance tokenization together with the @Nasdaq Equity Token (NET) framework. Equities on-chain only works if it's built to institutional standard from day one. We're building it with the company that's run public market infrastructure for decades. โ†’ payward.com/press-release/paโ€ฆ
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth ๐Ÿ’ retweeted
PPI today. CPI tomorrow. CLARITY and FOMC next week. Four major catalysts with the potential to reshape rate expectations and move markets. @follis_ and @ThomasPerfumo break down how to think about the volatility on todayโ€™s episode of The Breakdown. ๐ŸŽ™๏ธ Live at 12:30 PM ET
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This theory that these tokenized shares are "creating" shares of the underlying stock is akin to claiming ETFs "create" shares of the underlying stock. It's a really weak argument, in my view.
One theory is that nobody should be allowed to create a share of stock except the company whose stock it is. (via @opinion) bloomberg.com/opinion/newsleโ€ฆ
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Thomas Perfumo, CFA | thomasp.eth ๐Ÿ’ retweeted
$BTC had its strongest month since November 2024. Now comes the real test. CPI this week. CLARITY on Sep 15. The Fed on Sep 16. @ThomasPerfumo on the catalysts that could shape what comes next. Macro Minute โ†“
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๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐Ÿ’ฐ $1,600 billion ๐—–๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐Ÿ’Ž โ‚ฟ20.081 million (95.62% of max) ๐—”๐—ป๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฎ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ณ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐Ÿ’ธ +0.82% ๐—•๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜€ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ฑ๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—น๐˜† โ›๏ธ +โ‚ฟ450 ($35.8 million) #SoundMoneyMonday
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The discussions about tokenized equities stemming from the debate between @CEOAdam, @vladtenev, and @dangallagher is electric. I've studied tokenized equity structures for half a decade now, the good, the bad, the ugly. Here are my thoughts: (1) The world is bigger than just the US. Yes, the US is the most important and the largest financial market in the world. The tokenized equities issued by entities like @RobinhoodCrypto and @xStocksFi are not US securities, they're not offered to US persons, and no one is advertising them as US securities. The tokens are registered under a European prospectus. They are structured in reference to the Swiss DLT Act, which is more than half a decade old and recognizes securities in token format. Criticizing offshore securities for existing offshore and targeting offshore investors is silly. (2) Unsponsored securities are everywhere. The original $MEME ETF issued by Roundhill ***in the US*** held $AMC. In general, ETFs act as unsponsored proxies for their underlying securities. ETFs do not require, nor is it practical that they would, issuer "approval" to buy and hold publicly traded shares. If an issuer doesn't like it, then perhaps they should consider delisting and managing their cap table as a private company. That's always a choice. Instead, we see the opposite: issuers actively court ETF inclusion because it's relevant to the growth in their investor base. To suggest that a security is illegitimate because it exists without the issuer's approval is a weak argument. (3) Voting rights are important, but do not in of itself define whether a security is "legitimate." Easy counterfactual: all of the tech companies with super voting shares where your vote as a common equity holder is substantively meaningless. Or how about ADRs listed in US markets that own interests in VIEs where it's not even clear you have economic rights, let alone voting rights. The goal of this post isn't to strike up a least dirty shirt contest. It's meant to highlight that blanket assertions about the legitimacy of a security -- particularly one marketed outside of the US -- are vacuous, because you can find plenty of examples of the same criticisms in the US market, too. And no one bats an eye. At the end of it all, what matters is that an issuer is meeting the obligations under their prospectus and that investors are able to become well informed of the objectives and the risks of that particular security. These 1:1 backed tokenized securities that I've referenced above, on balance, are delivering on that.
Seriously? Whatโ€™s the concern you ask, @vladtenev? The list of concerns is almost existential. U.S. securities laws are in place to protect investors. For good reason, we spend millions and millions of dollars every year to comply with U.S. securities laws. In good. conscience, how can Robinhood as a U.S. company set up an operation in far offshore Jersey, an island 3000 miles away, and market a security sort of posing as AMC in some shape or fashion, and not comply with U.S. securities laws. That is shocking and shameful. Our past issuance of equity to strengthen our balance sheet was vital to our success. Your setting up some kind of fictitious synthetic equity market decouples stock token ownership from a companyโ€™s ability to control its own capital raising efforts. Share ownership gives shareholders various rights, including the right to vote their shares. Your stock token pretend to be some form of stock ownership, but disclosures to the contrary notwithstanding, they are not ownership and they deprive investors of their rights. This quasi-fake market you are creating on the island of Jersey sows distrust amongst the public about financial markets in general. There already is distrust in financial institutions, you are potentially making it far worse. These are but a few of my concerns about your actions. I hereby call on you and Robinhood to voluntarily CEASE AND DECIST the trading of AMC stock tokens. If you donโ€™t, our high priced securities counsel has been asked to see whether we can force you to stop. I also wonder how can the SEC possibly support your sham ignoring of U.S. securities laws. You can be sure we will be asking them.
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